DC Posted September 27, 2008 Share Posted September 27, 2008 This thread started as an attempt to find games that finish over 2.5 goals and combine them in weekly trebles with cover bets on 1-1. After a few weeks I saw a pattern based on number of goals, lack of cleansheets and failed-to-scores for both teams and decided to trial the selections as singles with the best odds available. Skip to post 15 for it all to make sense!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 27, 2008 Author Share Posted September 27, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 27, 2008 Author Share Posted September 27, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 I've sorted this by TG(total goals) scored and conceded by both teams in their last 3 games, and then by the number of nils (cleans sheets, failed to scores). I've decided not to go with a selection unless there are 0 or 1 "nil" present. This leaves Bristol Rovers v Crewe as top rated, 27 goals scored and conceded between them and only 1 "nil". If I was to sort it by fewest "nils" and then by TG, Notts County v Aldershot would be top rated as in all 6 games there have been no clean sheets and no occasions where a team didn't score, however there are fewer total goals (only 18). We'll see how it goes this week, I'll probably be tweaking things as I go along as I've done no testing, however these are the exact things I look at when doing a +2.5 bet. Selections: Bristol Rovers +2.5 @ 1.7, Macclesfield +2.5 @1.95, Scunthorpe @1.90 5.5points treble @ 6.3 1.5points '1-1' correct score bets @ 7.0, 7.0, 7.0 ALL BETS with BET365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 27, 2008 Author Share Posted September 27, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 I've been looking at last weekends results and this table seems to suggest that the best column to have sorted by would be TF (total goals scored by both teams) with a higher proportion of successful over bets near the top of the table and more unders towards the bottom. EIGHT winners from the top ten :ok Chester v Shrewsbury was top-rated and finished 1-1 so I may have landed the correct score cover ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 27, 2008 Author Share Posted September 27, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 A disappointing start with 0-0, 2-0 and 1-4 scorelines. Still it's early days and I will be testing this as I go along with more and more data from each week. I'm convinced selections will still revolve around Total Goals Scored for both teams, Total Goals Scored and Conceded for both teams and the amount of Nils. Profit -10.00 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Good luck with this DC :ok Looks interesting, will follow with interest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 28, 2008 Author Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Good luck with this DC :ok Looks interesting, will follow with interest Thanks mate, I've been crunching the numbers since yesterday and realise that the "nils" may not be that important. Matches with a 'TF' of at least 12 and a 'TA' of at least 9 seem to do well though.... 1st week: Carlisle 0-2, Preston 1-3, Peterboro 2-2 2nd week: Arsenal 1-2, MKD 1-2, Macclesfield 1-4 This will be my angle for next week... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 4, 2008 Author Share Posted October 4, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Nothing fitted the criteria in the last post so I've decided that the following games will make up this weekends treble Watford - Preston Reading - Burnley Rochdale - Dagenham Over 2.5 5.5pts treble @ 5.53 1-1 correct scores (1.5pts) @ 6-1 for each game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 5, 2008 Author Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Watford 2 - Preston 1 :) Reading 3 - Burnley :) Rochdale 0 - Dagenham 2 :$ 1 goal shy of the treble, and that was the shortest price too!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 11, 2008 Author Share Posted October 11, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 -20.00 points profit after last weekends disappointment. Not many fixtures this weekend because of the Internationals however I'll opt for this bet: Southend 1.95, Swindon 1.75 and Macclesfield 1.85 (odds Bet365) 3 doubles of 2.50 1 treble of 2.50 Total stake 10.00 units :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 12, 2008 Author Share Posted October 12, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Southend 1-1 :( Swindon 1-3 :D Macclesfield 2-3 :D ONE GOAL AWAY AGAIN!! :sad Still small compensation on the doing the doubles but the 1-1 correct score covers bet would've made a complete money back and I decided against it!! :( double returns 8.09 = - 11.91 Bank -31.91 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 18, 2008 Author Share Posted October 18, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 OK back to the original strategy of 1-1 correct score covers this week. Here are the three selections and odds and (1-1) odds using Bet365 Cheltenham v Scunthorpe 1.66 (6.50) Leyton O v Tranmere 1.85 (6.50) Southend v Swindon 1.80 (7.00) 5.5pts +2.5 treble, 3 x 1.5pts correct score covers. As a side line I'm going to start a new 100pt bank and stake 5pts on any over 2.5 bet mentioned. Overs: Cheltenham 1.66 Leyton O 1.85 Southend 1.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 19, 2008 Author Share Posted October 19, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Just when I thought I'd get a 1-1 cover in to make it a non-losing week a 90th minute goal spoiled things! Safer to do the doubles, can't get it right!! Cheltenham 1-2 Southend 2-1 LeytonO 0-1 Another 10pts lost then. Singles bank for +2.5 goals +3.30 +4.00 -5.00 Bank 102.3 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 20, 2008 Author Share Posted October 20, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Another singles qualifier tonight Newcastle v Man City +2.5 goals @ 1.83 Betfred Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 20, 2008 Author Share Posted October 20, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Starting to sway towards the singles idea rather than the initial doubles etc. I've been looking at results this season and can so far boast 22 winners from 29 selections and a yield of over 38%. Of course this won't last but if I can get a 10% yield till the end of the season I'll be happy. Total Goals must exceed 21 and there's another couple of rules which I'll keep to myself for now. Results since started tracking: Cheltenham v Scunthorpe WON @ 1.66 +3.30 Southend v Swindon WON @ 1.80 +4.00 Leyton O v Tranmere lost -5.00 Newcastle v Man City WON @ 1.83 +4.15 Total +6.45 Wins 3/4 Yield 32.25% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 21, 2008 Author Share Posted October 21, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 No fewer than NINE qualifiers tonight!!: Championship COVENTRY v BURNLEY @ 1.95 Bet365 League One TRANMERE v CHELTENHAM @ 1.67 Betfred COLCHESTER v MILLWALL @ 1.91 Betfred HARTLEPOOL v HUDDERSFIELD @ 1.83 Stan James MKD v STOCKPORT @ 1.83 Stan James PETERBORO v BRIGHTON @ 1.90 Bet365 SWINDON v NORTHAMPTON @ 1.83 Betfred League Two BURY v ROTHERHAM @ 2.00 Betfred ACCRINGTON v SHREWSBURY @ 1.83 Betfred Hoping to land 6 from the 9 singles... (the best treble would be Tranmere/Colchester/Hartlepool) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 21, 2008 Author Share Posted October 21, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Championship COVENTRY v BURNLEY @ 1.95 WON +4.75 :D League One TRANMERE v CHELTENHAM @ 1.67 lost -5.00 COLCHESTER v MILLWALL @ 1.91 WON +4.55 :D HARTLEPOOL v HUDDERSFIELD @ 1.83 WON +4.15 :D MKD v STOCKPORT @ 1.83 WON +4.15 :D PETERBORO v BRIGHTON @ 1.90 lost -5.00 SWINDON v NORTHAMPTON @ 1.83 WON +4.15 :D League Two BURY v ROTHERHAM @ 2.00 WON +5.00 :D ACCRINGTON v SHREWSBURY @ 1.83 WON +4.15 :D Seven smiley faces and a profit of 20.90 points :clap Total +27.35 Wins 10/13 Yield 42.08% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 22, 2008 Author Share Posted October 22, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 I've deleted some of the ugly looking tables from this thread. Forget the initial post this will now be a system based on +2.5 bets and singles only. After 100 bets I should have more idea whether this will be a success or not after a terrific start :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 22, 2008 Author Share Posted October 22, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Another bet tonight in League Two CHESTERFIELD v ALDERSHOT @ 1.9 Victor Chandler or 1.95 (2k available) Betfair = 1.9 after 5% commission Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted October 22, 2008 Share Posted October 22, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Hope your right danny, I'm with you on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich46 Posted October 22, 2008 Share Posted October 22, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Going great Danny:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 22, 2008 Author Share Posted October 22, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Hope your right danny' date=' I'm with you on this one.[/quote'] Nice one mate! Thanks Rich46, let's hope the purple patch continues for a while yet! :ok Chesterfield 5 Aldershot 1 :D +4.50 Total Profit +32.85 Wins 11/14 (78.6%) (Yield 46.93%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 25, 2008 Author Share Posted October 25, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Saturday's selections Gillingham v Chester 1.8 Paddy Power Rochdale v Aldershot 1.75 Bet365 Watford v Wolves 1.73 Betfred Colchester v Carlisle 1.83 Coventry v Derby 1.91 Paddy Power Leeds v Walsall 1.73 Betfred MKD v Cheltenham 1.73 Betfred Peterboro v Huddersfield 1.8 Betfred Macclesfield v Rotherham 1.8 Paddy Power Chesterfield v Notts Co 1.95 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 26, 2008 Share Posted October 26, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Looks like another strong weekend Danny, 8/10 if i'm not mistaken. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 26, 2008 Author Share Posted October 26, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Gillingham v Chester 1.8 lost -5.00 Rochdale v Aldershot 1.75 WON +3.75 :) Watford v Wolves 1.73 WON +3.65 :) Colchester v Carlisle WON +4.15 :) Coventry v Derby 1.91 lost -5.00 Leeds v Walsall 1.73 WON +3.65 :) MKD v Cheltenham 1.73 WON +3.65 :) Peterboro v Huddersfield 1.8 WON +4.00 :) Macclesfield v Rotherham 1.8 WON +4.00 :) Chesterfield v Notts Co 1.95 WON +4.75 :) Yes 8/10 barrhead, thanks :ok Profit +21.6 :) Total profit +54.45 Wins 19 / 24 (79.2%) (Yield 45.38%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 28, 2008 Author Share Posted October 28, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 29, 2008 Author Share Posted October 29, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 HOMEAWAY DIV1CarlisleHartlepool1.91 Skybet LOST -5.00 DIV2Notts CoRochdale1.95 Bet365 WON +4.75 CHAMWolvesSwansea1.67 Betfred WON +3.35 DIV1HuddersfieldYeovil1.75 Bet365 LOST -5.00 DIV2AldershotPort Vale1.73 Betfred LOST -5.00 CHAMDerbyNorwich2.0 Betfred WON +5.00 DIV1CrewePeterboro1.73 Betfred LOST -5.00 DIV1SouthendLeeds1.8 Betfred LOST -5.00 DIV2BradfordBury1.85 Bet365 LOST -5.00 DIV2RotherhamDarlington1.8 Betfred LOST -5.00 Back down to earth now... -21.90 Total profit +32.55 :) Wins 22 / 34 (64.7%) (Yield 19.15%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted November 1, 2008 Author Share Posted November 1, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 Some more for Saturday, personally I don't like the look of half of these!! Stoke v Arsenal 1.67 SKYBET Cardiff v Wolves 1.80 PaddyPower Watford v Blackpool 1.91 BlueSquare Burnley v Norwich 1.85 Bet365 Bournemouth v Chesterfield 1.85 Bet365 Exeter v Chester 1.85 Bet365 Brentford v Rochdale 1.95 Bet365 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted November 3, 2008 Author Share Posted November 3, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 (Yield +19.15%) Stoke v Arsenal 1.67 SKYBET 2-1 :) +3.35 Cardiff v Wolves 1.80 PaddyPower 1-2 :) +4.00 Watford v Blackpool 1.91 BlueSquare 3-4 :) +4.55 Burnley v Norwich 1.85 Bet365 2-0 :$ -5.00 Bournemouth v Chesterfield 1.85 Bet365 1-1 :$ -5.00 Exeter v Chester 1.85 Bet365 2-0 :$ -5.00 Brentford v Rochdale 1.95 Bet365 1-2 :) +4.75 +1.65 :lol Total profit +34.20 :) Wins 26 / 41 (63.4%) (Yield 16.68%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted November 8, 2008 Author Share Posted November 8, 2008 Re: Danny's +2.5 strategy 2008/09 (Yield +19.15%) Only two fixtures that concern me this weekend Arsenal v Man Utd +2.5 goals @ 2.1 SportingBet Blackpool v Ipswich +2.5 goals @ 1.95 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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