Football Correct Scores - how to profit?

[Vilamoura04]

Does anyone else bet on correct scores in football successfully and if so what methods do they use? I am looking at two ways (well, three ways) of predicting and betting correct scores in football. Method 1. Frequency of results - for example a home team has won a significant number of games 2-1 this season, away team has lost a significant number of games this season 2-1, back the 2-1. Method 2. Poisson distribution - which gives the statistical chance of a team scoring or conceding a given number of goals (0,1,2,3 etc) based on average goals scored/conceded in previous matches. Then repeat for away team. Average together to get percentage chances of various scorelines. a. Based on goals scored average over last 5 games b Based on average of home goals scored vs away goals conceded and away goals scored vs home goals conceded Back most likely scorelines. Method 3. Poisson distribution and odds value Take results from method 2 and compare with prices of correct scorelines. Back where price>probability. Which of these methods would be best? Also how do i test them without spending weeks doing it?

[methuselah]

Re: Football Correct Scores - how to profit? I bet on correct scores occasionally. I prefer the 0-0 market as I use only BF and this is the most active. I bet mainly on the o/u 2.5 market however. I basically consider scores etc as you suggest but think using Poisson is of no use. I bet 40 to 50 markets a week and my bank is much the same as it was 2 years ago.In other words I have gone sideways. I believe that a staking plan is the only answer but cannot think of one I would be game to use.