happygooner Posted August 29, 2008 Share Posted August 29, 2008 After reading about the 'Underdog Theorem' on this very site and then eddiegetz blog some time back he very kindly offered to send me the book authored by himself. A cracking good read it was too and with a seemingly consistent way of making each NFL season pay......providing that is, you have the balls!! It's a chase system of sorts which relies upon the parity running throughout NFL. After the first 2 game weeks when teams have had a chance to start either a winning or losing streak you then look to back against the undefeated teams and to back the winless. In essence that is it although of course there are specific rules such as avoiding schedule conflicts and bets on a point spread fave where they are so far winless etc etc... This will all become clear in due course anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 19, 2008 Author Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Quick update: Like I said before the basic premise is backing a winless team and backing against a team without loss. This requires at last 2 weeks in order to establish the streak hence 3rd week is the first week any selections can be found. I made a note of a potential teams last night but it's on my computer at home so will have to wait before posting that. You then need to look for all potential conflicts in schedule which could see any of the winless teams play each other before week 9 and exclude those for time being. Same with the 2-0 teams as you need to make sure their is conflict in schedule. I'm sure most people can probably work out who that leaves for this weekend. I only know from looking at Eddie's blog though as not really studied things in any great detail yet. So I'm going to do the working out myself rather than rely on others. Will try and update tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 21, 2008 Author Share Posted September 21, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Ok so here is a table detailing all the undefeated and winless teams up to the start of week 3: Undefeated Teams Start of NFL Week 3 Team Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Arizona Cardinals WAS NYJ BUF X DAL X BYE CAR X Baltimore Ravens CLE PIT X TEN X IND MIA OAK Buffalo Bills OAK STL ARI X BYE SD MIA Carolina Panthers MIN ATL KC TB NO ARI X Dallas Cowboys GB X WAS CIN ARI X STL TB Denver Broncos NO KC TB JAC NE X BYE Green Bay Packers DAL X TB ATL SEA IND BYE New England Patriots MIA BYE SF SD DEN X STL New York Giants CIN BYE SEA CLE SF PIT X Pittsburgh Steelers PHI BAL X JAC BYE CIN NYG X Tennessee Titans HOU MIN BAL X BYE KC IND Winless Teams Start of NFL Week 3 Team Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Cincinnati Bengals NYG CLE X DAL NYJ PIT HOU X Cleveland Browns BAL CIN X BYE CLE WAS JAC Detroit Lions SF BYE CHI MIN X HOU X WAS Houston Texans TEN JAC X IND MIA X DET X CIN X Jacksonville Jaguars IND HOU X PIT DEN BYE CLE X Kansas City Chiefs ATL DEN CAR BYE TEN NYJ Miami Dolphins NE BYE SD X HOU X BAL BUF Minnesota Vikings CAR TEN NO DET X CHI BYE San Diego Chargers NYJ OAK MIA X NE BUF NO Seattle Seahawks STL X BYE NYG GB TB SF St. Louis Rams SEA X BUF BYE WAS DAL NE These are the only teams the system can either back or back against. As soon as the they are no longer undefeated or winless they come out of the portfolio for another year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 21, 2008 Author Share Posted September 21, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Moving on...the system aims to avoid all schedule conflict between teams from either table before week 9. so any teams with a big X next to their name cannot be played until that conflict is no longer there. This leaves just KC for this week who will be backed ATS as a winless team. If they win they are out of the portfolio as they have effectively done their job and paid out for the year. Way to think of it is each team that enters the portfolio owes you and as soon as they've paid they disappear until next year. If KC still lose but but beat the point spread they've paid a bonus but the system still expects more and they will stay in the portfolio for at least another week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 21, 2008 Author Share Posted September 21, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Start bank is £50.00 for this season (each bet to win 10%) and if anybody is going to get involved please be aware it is a chase system so balls of steel may be required!! But....I have the book in front of me and it has documented 15 years of success based on the fact that no team since the 1972 dolphins has or ever will go undefeated. Same to be said for going all the way through and ending up winless. Here we go then: Kansas City Chiefs +5.5 @ 2.08 - £5.00 staked:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
equinoxx Posted September 21, 2008 Share Posted September 21, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Good luck with this, it sounds interesting. I'd also like to learn more about the book - what's it called etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 21, 2008 Author Share Posted September 21, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Before I close up I'll quickly just mention that there are two variants of how to play this system. One which effectively doesn't chase after 3 losing bets and the other which keeps on going. For this reason if following the all out one more than £50.00 may be required. Fingers crossed I don't have to make that decision but it's always a possibility. That pretty much covers everything you need to know for this week. There will no doubt be more for me to go over for week 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 21, 2008 Author Share Posted September 21, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Good luck with this, it sounds interesting. I'd also like to learn more about the book - what's it called etc? It's actually called 'The Underdog Theorem, How to Bet on NFL and Win' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 27, 2008 Share Posted September 27, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz This looks like a logical system! As a fan of NFL I'll be keeping an eye out mate. Good luck this week! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 27, 2008 Author Share Posted September 27, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Have to admit, I'm not looking forward to doubling up on the Chiefs after last week:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 28, 2008 Author Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz A lot of teams now gone... Undefeated Teams Start of NFL Week 4 Team Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Baltimore Ravens CLE PIT TEN X IND MIA OAK Buffalo Bills OAK STL ARI BYE SD MIA Dallas Cowboys GB WAS CIN ARI STL TB Denver Broncos NO KC TB JAC NE BYE New York Giants CIN BYE SEA CLE SF PIT Tennessee Titans HOU MIN BAL X BYE KC IND Winless Teams Start of NFL Week 4 Team Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Cincinnati Bengals NYG CLE X DAL NYJ PIT HOU X Cleveland Browns BAL CIN X BYE CLE WAS JAC Detroit Lions SF BYE CHI MIN HOU X WAS Houston Texans TEN JAC IND MIA DET X CIN X Kansas City Chiefs ATL DEN CAR BYE TEN NYJ St. Louis Rams SEA BUF BYE WAS DAL NE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 28, 2008 Author Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz So what does that mean...?! Well firstly it means that both BUF & STL now have no conflict with schedules so both qualify this week as undefeated and winless. 2 bets required this week - one backing against Buffalo & one backing St Louis. As they play each other it's essentially double stake on the one game:loon Dallas play Washington who have numbers in both the wins and losses column. Therefore we back against Dallas as an undefeated team. Denver play Kansas City....who we are already playing catch-up with:unsure Kansas City is double stake to make up for last weeks loss and then we have to back against Denver......meaning that the system now has treble stake on those lousy Chiefs:eek Giants are on a bye so nothing doing there. And that's it...back in a bit with bets:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 28, 2008 Author Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz So first bet is £17.50 on Kansas City Chiefs +9.5 @ 1.90 :unsure:hope:hope Back later with the rest:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 28, 2008 Author Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Chiefs up 7 in the fourth so looking good:ok St Louis +8.5 @ 2.00 for £10.53 Washington +11.5 @ 1.84 for £6.27 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Nice work! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 29, 2008 Author Share Posted September 29, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Nice work! :ok Thanks, credit to the author though not me:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 5, 2008 Author Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Well, it's that time again where I sit down for a good 6-7 hours entertainment and hopefully make some money:hope Undefeated Teams Start of NFL Week 5 Team Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Buffalo Bills OAK STL ARI BYE SD MIA New York Giants CIN BYE SEA CLE SF PIT Tennessee Titans HOU MIN BAL BYE KC IND Winless Teams Start of NFL Week 5 Team Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Cincinnati Bengals NYG CLE DAL NYJ PIT HOU X Detroit Lions SF BYE CHI MIN HOU X WAS Houston Texans TEN JAC IND MIA DET X CIN X St. Louis Rams SEA BUF BYE WAS DAL NE That's the updated table of remaining undefeated and winless teams. Bottom half not in play tonight as still schedule conflicts with all but Rams - who are on a bye. The top half of the table has opened up completely so we bet against all undefeated teams. Back in a sec with the suggested bets:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 5, 2008 Author Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Playing against Buffalo is already a chase from last week so we double up. I lost £10.53 last week which I will aim to get back along a little extra tonight. Arizona are a small fave tonight which leads on to another little rule of thumb with this system. When an undefeated team is made underdog then we generally don't play them unless we are already on the chase like tonight. Reason being that we could take Arizona at -1.5 and they may well win by a point. Buffalo would be out of the portfolio for future weeks and rather than pay us what they owed (each team in the portfolio owes - that's the best way to think of it) they would have actually cost us. As Buffalo have already cost us then we must try and get that back before they disappear out of the portfolio for the season. Anyway Buffalo is a later game so I will leave that for now... Betfair are really doing my head in with their point spreads making each side less than even. Can only get 1.74 on Seattle +7.5 at the moment so left it unmatched at 1.9:@ Official Suggested Early Bets Seattle +7.5 (NYG undefeated) Baltimore +2.5 (Tennessee undefeated) @ 1.9 Odds on Seattle to follow when I get matched... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 5, 2008 Author Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Forgot to update last weeks so will do that in a bit.:$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 5, 2008 Author Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Got Seattle @ 1.85:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 5, 2008 Author Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz So first bet is £17.50 on Kansas City Chiefs +9.5 @ 1.90 :unsure:hope:hope Back later with the rest:ok +£14.96:nana So added to the first game where I lost £5.00 that's an overall profit of £9.96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 5, 2008 Author Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Chiefs up 7 in the fourth so looking good:ok St Louis +8.5 @ 2.00 for £10.53:( Washington +11.5 @ 1.84 for £6.27:) :hope -£5.53 so added to the overal total of +£9.96 it's now +£4.43:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 5, 2008 Author Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Oh dear oh dear oh dear.... £10.77 on Arizona -1.5 @ 1.90.....and boy could I do with this one winning:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 12, 2008 Author Share Posted October 12, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Undefeated Teams Start of NFL Week 6 Team Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 New York Giants CIN BYE SEA CLE SF PIT Tennessee Titans HOU MIN BAL BYE KC IND Winless Teams Start of NFL Week 6 Team Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Cincinnati Bengals NYG CLE DAL NYJ PIT HOU X Detroit Lions SF BYE CHI MIN HOU X WAS Houston Texans TEN JAC IND MIA DET X CIN X St. Louis Rams SEA BUF BYE WAS DAL NE Ok this is the updated table from which we select. Back in a bit with an update on last week and selections for tonight:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 12, 2008 Author Share Posted October 12, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Seattle +7.5 (NYG undefeated) @ 1.86 -£6.26:( Baltimore +2.5 (Tennessee undefeated) @ 1.9 -£5.86:( Odds on Seattle to follow when I get matched... -£12.12:( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 12, 2008 Author Share Posted October 12, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Oh dear oh dear oh dear.... £10.77 on Arizona -1.5 @ 1.90.....and boy could I do with this one winning:hope +£10.23:nana So -£1.89 for the week and +£2.54 overall.....wahey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 12, 2008 Author Share Posted October 12, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Right, there's only 2 selections this week and one of those is for tomorrow. Now if people can recall the last time the syste bet on Rams it was a double staked job because we were also betting against Buffalo. Rams got their arses handed to them so an amount of £10.53 was lost. £5.23 of that was made up last week betting against Buffalo so this week I need to take back the remaining £5.30 as well as to make another £5.00. So tonight will be aiming to make £10.30 after comm. has been deducted. Rams +13.5 @ 1.82 - Staking £13.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 13, 2008 Author Share Posted October 13, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Well the Rams didn't let me down anyway:nana Tonight it seems the system is going against the world as we once again back against the Giants. So the aim to recover our lost £6.26 from last week and come out with a clear £5.00 profit for this week. Cleveland +7.5 @ 2.12 - staking £10.59 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 19, 2008 Author Share Posted October 19, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Undefeated Teams Start of NFL Week 7 Team Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Tennessee Titans HOU MIN BAL BYE KC IND Winless Teams Start of NFL Week 7 Team Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Cincinnati Bengals NYG CLE DAL NYJ PIT HOU Detroit Lions SF BYE CHI MIN HOU WAS No schedule conflicts remain so all of Titans, Bengals & Lions are a play tonight. Plus we're chasing on the play against Titans due to their last win over the Ravens before a week 6 bye. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 19, 2008 Author Share Posted October 19, 2008 Re: NFL: Tracking the 'Underdog Theorem' by eddiegetz Chiefs +8.5 @ 1.90 - staking £12.72 Bengals +9.5 @ 1.85 - £6.19 Lions play later so will be back to post in a bit :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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