TopSavings Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Hi, Some of you may or may not remember me from previous over and under threads, but using the same set of rules I used to find selections for these systems, I have realised that betting over 1.5 is more profitable and becoming more common amongst online bookmakers in many leagues across the world (the ones I will be quoting odds from are Betfair, Gamebookers, Winunited and Unibet). Anyway, I have back tracked over the last 100 bets I have backed over 2.5 in and found that 90% of them actually had two or more goals in at average odds of 1.19 (according to highstreet bookmaker prices on betexplorer) which is level stakes ROI of 7.10% which I thought was a good starting point for a 20% increased bank staking plan. I will be testing this on here with a hypothetical bank of 1000 points and be using 1/20th of it for each bet placed on the day. If two or more matches kick off at the same time, they will have the same stake placed until a new bank is reached. One rule which I have used which seems to be very important is after a loser the stake never decreases. eg. Bank of 1000 points, first bet loses at 50pts, new bet should be 950/20 = 47.50pts, but 50 points will remain the stake until a new high point in the bank is reached. ie. over 1000 points. This staking plan is one I used to use for laying greyhounds, which I had some success at. I always used to lay a dog between odds of say 4.0 (ie. backing at 1.33) or 8.0 (ie. backing 1.14) for 1/20th of the bank and it really does increase level stakes profit by over 20% after only 100 bets if you can stick with it. Obviously I am hoping for only 9/100 losers but even if this increases to say 12 or 13, some of the odds and where they fall in the staking ladder can help the losses be not too damaging, if you can follow it with a couple of decent prices bets of say 1.25 or 1.30. I don't expect to get rich over night, but in the last 4 or 5 years, overs and unders is the only market I have really ever bet on, and I hope to stick with this and show a profit. It would be lovely to double the bank after 100 bets which I think is quite feasible having tested a few models in spreadsheets of random positions of losing bets and random prices between 1.15 and 1.25 over thousands of bets. Wish me luck and hope you enjoy the system. Regards, TS. ps. There is a strict set of rules I use based on the teams' last 3 homes and last 3 aways, with an overall form of last 6 matches taken into consideration too. Historical stats do not come into this whatsoever. For these reasons, it may take a while for the bets to start rolling in from England, Germany, Italy, Holland and Spain because it will be a few weeks before all sides have played 3 home and 3 aways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted August 21, 2008 Author Share Posted August 21, 2008 Thursday 20th August 2008 Bet 1 Swedish Cup Hammarby v Kalmar (17:00 GMT) 50pts Betfair over 1.5 @ 1.26 (this becomes 1.247 after commission which is better than Winunited's 1.22) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted August 21, 2008 Author Share Posted August 21, 2008 Thursday 20th August 2008 A DISASTEROUS START! :sad Not even one bleep to get excited about. Still that's what you get for starting a system with a cup semi-final isn't it? I will rise above it... Bet 2 Brazil A Atletico MG v Goias (12:30) 50pts Winunited over 1.5 @ 1.18 Bet 3Brazil A Portuguesa v Vasco (12:30) 50pts Winunited over 1.5 @ 1.15 Bet 4 USA 1 LA Galaxy v Chicago Fire (03:00) 50 pts Winunited over 1.5 @ 1.20 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Re: Over 1.5 Goals System good luck topsavings! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted August 23, 2008 Author Share Posted August 23, 2008 Saturday 23rd August 2008 Bet 5 Japan A Kashima v Nagoya (10:30) 50pts Winunited over 1.5 @ 1.22 Bet 6 Japan A Urawa v Jubilo (10:30) 50pts Betfair over 1.5 @ 1.23 (becomes 1.21) Bet 7 Japan A Shimzu v Kashiwa (11:00) 50pts Winunited over 1.5 @ 1.38 Bet 8 Norway A Stabaek v Lyn (15:00) 50pts Betfair over 1.5 @ 1.19 (becomes 1.18) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted August 23, 2008 Author Share Posted August 23, 2008 Re: Over 1.5 Goals System Nice. First three of the day in by HT ;) I'm off out for the day but fingers crossed for the Norway game at 3pm. After losing 3 of the first 4, I need to get 27 bets right out of 30 to keep in line with the 90% strike rate! :\ Updates tomorrow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted August 26, 2008 Author Share Posted August 26, 2008 Tuesday 26th August 2008 All 4 from Saturday came in but I had a very busy weekend and couldn't post qualifiers for Sunday. There were 6/6 but no after-timing allowed here! So after 8 bets (and 3 losers unfortunately), the bank stands at 909.00 points which I'm reasonably pleased with after the most incredibly bad start I could have hoped for! Ok, 2 bets for today: Bet 9 Sweden B Vasby v Hacken (18:00) 50pts Winunited over 1.5 @ 1.22 Bet 10 Sweden B Bunkeflo v Falkenbergs (18:00) 50pts Winunited over 1.5 @ 1.20 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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