Am I being stupid, or would this work?

[Junior Bettor]

So in Betfair you can put your price in yada yada yada. Everyone knows I know. I also know there are certain "bots" or external programs for betfair. Now I'm not sure if the bots could do this, but would it not be possible to do the following... Scenario : 10 Horse Race. Place Pot. Most horses are valued at 1.7 and over. So would it not be possible to tell a bot to place a £10 bet on every horse, but to only match it when the price hits 1.2 ? So for the 3 horses that are placed, you win £2 per horse, and for the other 7, the bet never gets matched, so you don't lose your stake. Am I completely off the ball here, or is what I'm saying making any sense, and actually possible?

[staffy]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? you cant bet inplay on the place market so you cant do this can you?

[staffy]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? + you would get loads of horese going to 1.2 in play tbh.

[Junior Bettor]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? the 15.25 at Yarmouth place market is in play. I've watched a few other place markets go in play too. More than 3 horses hitting 1.2 in play is a risk I didn't factor in, and perhaps something that nullifies my thoughts :(

[Junior Bettor]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? The place market is definitely in-play, too. Watching it now.

[Junior Bettor]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? Of the 9 horses that ran in the Great Yarmouth race I just watch, the 3 that finished on the podium all hit 1.2. The other 6 horses never got close.

[staffy]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? then good luck but I think it would fail in time.

[Junior Bettor]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? I would first need to find a bot that could hold bets at 1.2

[slapdash]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work?

the 15.25 at Yarmouth place market is in play. I've watched a few other place markets go in play too. More than 3 horses hitting 1.2 in play is a risk I didn't factor in' date=' and perhaps something that nullifies my thoughts :([/quote'] If more than 1 in 6 of the horses that hit 1.2 fail to place then you'll lose money. I would imagine that the in-play place market is quite weak, and there will be punters offering stupidly small prices, hoping to get matched, so that it will be fairly common for a horse to hit 1.2 just because there's no money offering "realistic" prices, rather than because it's really a 1.2 shot to place. But I haven't really looked. Why not follow a few races in-running, and see how common it is for a horse to hit 1.2?

[Junior Bettor]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? I will do. Race 1: 9 Horses. 3 Horses hit 1.2 (3 to place) (Great Yar. 15.25) Race 2: 5 Horses. 3 Horses hit 1.2 (3 to place) (Salis. 15.35) Only a 5 horse race, but still 3 to be placed. Rather odd. the 2 that didn't place did get quite low, 1 hitting 1.21 and the other 1.5. Projected profit if I had genuinely followed the method thus far. Race 1 - +6 Race 2 - +6 Total Profits - +12

[staffy]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? Did they hit 1.2 or go lower than 1.2 though. If it went lower then profit is less.

[Junior Bettor]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? Race 1: 9 Horses. 3 Horses hit 1.2 (3 to place) (Great Yar. 15.25) Race 2: 5 Horses. 3 Horses hit 1.2 (3 to place) (Salis. 15.35) Race 3: 8 Horses. 3 Horses hit 1.2 (3 to place) (Bev. 15.45) Projected profit if I had genuinely followed the method thus far. Race 1 - +6 Race 2 - +6 Race 3 - +6 Total Profits - +18 Again, only 3 horses hit the 1.2 mark. One horse did get as low as 1.41 - but this is 3/3 so far.

[Junior Bettor]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work?

Did they hit 1.2 or go lower than 1.2 though. If it went lower then profit is less.

How so.? If I were to set my bets to match at 1.2 - would it still take lower? Obviously the 3 winning horses went lower than 1.2 - but they were the only 3 to get as low as 1.2 (if that makes sense)

[staffy]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? but you need someone to accept 1.2 they may only offer 1.1 and noone ever offered 1.2 if this makes sense.

[Junior Bettor]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? Ahh. Yes, that does make sense. There seems to be a lot of money in the place market though. In the last race nearly £100,000 was matched. I'll keep an eye open for the actual matching of 1.2 in the next race.

[Junior Bettor]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work?

Race 1: 9 Horses. 3 Horses hit 1.2 (3 to place) (Great Yar. 15.25) Race 2: 5 Horses. 3 Horses hit 1.2 (3 to place) (Salis. 15.35) Race 3: 8 Horses. 3 Horses hit 1.2 (3 to place) (Bev. 15.45) Race 4: 6 Horses. 4 Horses hit 1.2 (3 to place) (Yarm. 15.55) Projected profit if I had genuinely followed the method thus far. Race 1 - +6 Race 2 - +6 Race 3 - +6 Race 4 - -4 Total Profits - +14 The first race to cause trouble. 4 of the 6 horses went close, and 1 horse that didn't place even hit 1.03 ..!! Of the horses that went as low as 1.2 - they all had money matched on that amount. 1 more race for now - then I'll give it some more looking into later in the day.

[Junior Bettor]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? Race 1: 9 Horses. 3 Horses hit 1.2 (3 to place) (Great Yar. 15.25) Race 2: 5 Horses. 3 Horses hit 1.2 (3 to place) (Salis. 15.35) Race 3: 8 Horses. 3 Horses hit 1.2 (3 to place) (Bev. 15.45) Race 4: 6 Horses. 4 Horses hit 1.2 (3 to place) (Yarm. 15.55) Race 5: 9 Horses. 4 Horses hit 1.2 (3 to place) (Salis. 16.05) Projected profit if I had genuinely followed the method thus far. Race 1 - +6 Race 2 - +6 Race 3 - +6 Race 4 - -4 Race 5 - -4 Total Profits - +10 So another race with 4 horses getting to the 1.2 - and the profits are being eaten into. Perhaps this wont work after all. Will continue testing a little later.

[Datapunter]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? And you are forgetting the effect of time-delays. First you need to detect 1.2, by the time you do it may no longer be available, then you need some time to place a bet, again, by the time your bot made a desision to bet the 1.2 may no longer be available, then Betfair has to process your bet amongst hundreds of others, again, by the time your bet gets processed the price of 1.2 may no longer be available. We're talking seconds and milliseconds here, if you are lucky !, but they do make the difference. Nice in theory, different matter in the practical world.

[Datapunter]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? Basically you need a bot that can read a market prices, go through a decision process, and place a bet. In itself a pretty easy bot, totally possible with the free API, but THAT is what you need to do testing with. Anything you consider "testing" looking at the live market through the website is fairly pointless as in terms of 'bots' you are actually miles behind on what's actually happening in time. ( there are multiple delays between what's actually happening on the betting server and what you see on the website, milliseconds up to seconds, but in the 'bots' world that's ages )

[Junior Bettor]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? Thanks for the feedback DP :thup: Certainly quashes that. :D

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? I agree with Erik, it's good in theory but getting a bot to work how you want it to in real time, is not so easy. Decent idea though, at least you're thinking along the right road. :ok

[raylin]

this works laying horses in running This works laying horses in a win market In Running Lay all the horses in a field at 1.95 when the 2nd horse price goes below1.95 This happens quite a lot and i have seen as many as 4 horses go below 1,95 Example 1 st horse winning race price goes to say 1.2 2nd horse draws level and 2nd horse price goes below 1.95 or even lower with the first horse drifting but still under 1.95 Lay the field at this time at 1.95 Maths Lay 100 pound on winner although you have layed the bet at 1.95 the bet will probably be matched at 1.2 Lay all other horses at 1.95 2nd horse is taken at 1.95 win 95 pounds -20 pounds =75 Alternatively 2nd horse wins break even If three horses go below 1.95 profit = 180 minus commission These opportunities happen quite often especially in photo finishes and races were the winner wins by a head or short head Only problem is you need a very fast broadband to manually execute the bet or fast broadband and BOT Dont take my word on this just look at a couple of races in running any afternoon:dude

[happygooner]

Re: this works laying horses in running

This works laying horses in a win market In Running Lay all the horses in a field at 1.95 when the 2nd horse price goes below1.95 This happens quite a lot and i have seen as many as 4 horses go below 1,95 Example 1 st horse winning race price goes to say 1.2 2nd horse draws level and 2nd horse price goes below 1.95 or even lower with the first horse drifting but still under 1.95 Lay the field at this time at 1.95 Maths Lay 100 pound on winner although you have layed the bet at 1.95 the bet will probably be matched at 1.2 Lay all other horses at 1.95 2nd horse is taken at 1.95 win 95 pounds -20 pounds =75 Alternatively 2nd horse wins break even If three horses go below 1.95 profit = 180 minus commission These opportunities happen quite often especially in photo finishes and races were the winner wins by a head or short head Only problem is you need a very fast broadband to manually execute the bet or fast broadband and BOT Dont take my word on this just look at a couple of races in running any afternoon:dude

Wouldn't this work to a degree by laying the field for 1.95 prior to the race and keeping bets in-play?

[Junior Bettor]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? Shoudl do happy G. That sthe general idea I had too. For this one, set every lay price up at 1.95 pre race. Keep them in-play. For every horse that goes below 1.95 you make money. Seems far too good to be true.

[happygooner]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work?

Shoudl do happy G. That sthe general idea I had too. For this one, set every lay price up at 1.95 pre race. Keep them in-play. For every horse that goes below 1.95 you make money. Seems far too good to be true.

Well, unless they win:lol

[raylin]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? If you bet before the race then if only 2 horses go under 1.95 then you would only break even You have to wait untill the 2nd horse goes below 1.95 you then have an arbitrage situation I have seen horse trading simaltaneusly at 1.5 when they are neck and neck

[happygooner]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work?

If you bet before the race then if only 2 horses go under 1.95 then you would only break even You have to wait untill the 2nd horse goes below 1.95 you then have an arbitrage situation I have seen horse trading simaltaneusly at 1.5 when they are neck and neck

Yeah I see this but I wouldn't mind breaking even on occassion. How often would it actually end up losing is more the point? Convenience is an absolute must and unfortunately I can't mess around inplay during the day at all.

[happygooner]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? And how often do 3 or more drop momentarily under 2.00?

[raylin]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? I havnt tried this myself but why not lay the field at 1.25 in the place market before the race If four bets are taken then you would win 25 pound on a 100 pound lay if 5bets are taken you would win125 This is a gamble though and would have to check the market out to see how often it occurs

[happygooner]

Re: Am I being stupid, or would this work? Well I'm putting it into practice with very small stakes on 3 races where there look to be quite a few horses in single figures but no odds on.