AFL Rd. 19.

[TazaD]

Already on the Kangas @ 2.50! :eek Perfectly contrasting games last week...Kangas travel very poorly, and gave no real indication of form, despite pulling out a tough, unlikely win. Dogs came up against a 1/2 strength (1/4?!) Swans, and only had 1 more shot and 3 less I50's. I still think the Kangaroos are the 2nd or 3rd best team in the comp, but too many away games mask the true results. Add to all of this the motivation. Kangas still in a dog fight for spots 4-8, while the Dogs have sewn up a top 3 spot, are reportedly overloading training and have announced this week they will be "resting" players. AND...the Kangas beat them last meeting...3 more shots, 5 more I50's, back when the Dogs were just about at their peak. 2.40 is still a crazy price... Sydney -13.5. Yeah, well, a 1/2 strength Swans team is still good enough to get over Freo at home by a couple of goals. Not a terrible performance last week, 2 away games, and 2 absolute bogey sides (Coll and Crows) adds up to just 1 win in their last 5. But, in contrast, they own Freo, winning the last 8 meetings at home, none by less than 14. Freo's form looks ok on the surface (hence the low spread, imo), but wins against the 2 bottom teams and Port who gave up the previous week. The Dockers have personel issues of their own anyway...Murphy and Tarrant gone for surgery this week, Hayden still out, Pavlich reportedly needed injections to get up last week. Despite losing the last 2, Swans have had 23 and 27 shots and were +5 and +3 I50's. Pretty sure they can beat the Dockers again here.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 19. Yeah they're value again, particularly back in Melb. The oil I got yesterday (late notice sorry) is Simpson tore his hamstring last Wednesday (not a hip), so he's very doubtful. All the others are fine - Pratt, Wells, etc. Not sure what the market will do once teams are announced - whether it's already reacted to WBD resting?? Simpson may be named but could be late out again? North 1-39 @ 3.10 (sure you don't want to lay off Taz for some of that seeing they don't win big - 98% in 5th spot :eek). WBD symptomatically won just the one qtr LW and the hot & cold North game plan has them a not surprising 7 from 18 for HT/FT reversals. Can manufacture ~3/1 about that occurring. Tigers also a 1-39 option IMO. Pure momentum win by Crows LW after an overrated win in Sydney. They're not that good and Richmond have spoilt parties (McLeod) before. Tigers no good when in front, so >39 an impossibility. You may have just put me off Freo. Bit of rain in Tassie? I actually think Coll are stronger chance dropping those blokes than if they played but still more than happy with the Saints evens.