AFL Rd. 17.

[TazaD]

Geelong still missing Ablett and Ling...and Hawks have a very good recent record v. the Cats. Won the last 3 meetings, 2 as decent size 'dogs...one as about 8.00 'dogs down at Geelong in 2006. Still, Geelong look to have just about everyone covered, and I reckon they'll be hard to beat again. Would have liked the Bombers here, but will quite literally have problems putting a team on the park this week! Fletcher still ??, Welsh only 50/50...Neagle and Monfries both out from last week's team. 'Pies won Rd. 6. meeting easily...no Lucas, but still...can't really see Collingwood dropping this one. Sure, Saints look pretty likely @ West Coast...but 1.15ish!! In 4 interstate trips this season the Saints have av'd 76 ppg and not had more than 25 shots! They also haven't topped 100 in Perth in their last 10 (since 2002) av'ing just 73 ppg...inc. a 75-80 loss as favs v. Freo in 2005. West Coast numbers have been ok at home all season...just -4 I50's per game...they just leak points badly...but not sure Saints can take advantage, esp. with Kosi out. These teams had very similar stats on the Gold Coast v. the Kangas in their 2 games there... ...Like I said, I think the Saints will probably win (won by 23 there last year as big 'dogs), but I think West Coast could definately be worth a look given high 30's! Brisbane/Richmond looks the tip-killer of the round. Looks to be nothing in it. Richmond over-rated off a couple of wins, but against crap teams...were amazingly lucky last week ( )... ...but Brisbane's road form is pretty horible as well. Funnily enough, played a draw at the dome last year...stats almost identical. Brisbane had no Bradshaw, but Richmond had no Simmons... No surprises the odds are pk...coin toss to me! Had Sydney down as a certain bet, but now some injury concerns. O'Loughlan out, Leo Barry out (no real match-up anyway tho here I guess), O'Keefe not 100%... ...although it looks like we might see Big Bad Bazza back! Crows are shot. Av'ing just 70 ppg in their last 5...2 best forwards out...now travel to Sydney where the Swans have allowed more than 23 shots just once in their last 10. Swans won 7 of last 8 at home...loss to Bulldogs who were 1) Flying, and 2) kicked very straight!...lowest win has been by 28, and last 6 wins have been by an av. 64 points! Crows have 3rd fewest I50's in last 4 games (only WC and Melbourne worse), and Swans hold teams to just 40 @ home this season (+15!) Adelaide do have a very good record v. Sydney (which may be another reason for the generous line), but they have been favs in 8 of last 10...different teams altogether now I think. Surprised by Freo's price. Have seen some 2.80! ...v. Port!!..who just won their 2nd home game for the season. Which, is half the problem as well. They had set themselves for last week. It was basically their Grand Final v. Adelaide...let down anyone? Cornes out for the season... Freo definately showing some spirit last week, hammering a pretty bad Melbourne, but Port aren't much better. Port won first meeting @ Freo this season...but Dockers had more shots and +13 I50's!! Lost last year in Rd. 22 @ Port, but last game, and season was well and truly shot... ...won the previous meeting @ Port easily as 3.30 'dogs. They only lost to Adelaide @ AAMI by 17 this season (with more I50's!) when the Crows were flying so the ground is no concern. Freo have only lost 3 of their last 10 by more than 9 points!! The Port game I mentioned, @ Brisbane with just 2 less shots, and @ Geelong where everyone gets pumped! Looks a pretty even game on paper, so tempted by the big price, but wil be on the points for sure. Got no problems with taking the 'Roos to win big either. As mentioned last week, they've had the toughest draw I can remember, yet still doing the job. Won the first meeting of the year by 48...Melbourne av. just 40 I50's and 17 shots in their last 4. This will be just the 4th time all season the Kangas have played a bottom 8 side in Melbourne! (Beat Melbourne by 48 and Richmond by 41) Happy to lay the points in this one. And, I reckon the Dogs/Carlton odds are abuot right. Dogs by around 5 goals. Discuss... :ok

[DeMMa]

Re: AFL Rd. 17. All i gotta say GO PIES :)