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2008 / 2009 Football Laying System

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ljones60

ljones60

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Re: 2008 / 2009 Football Laying System

Sunday 27th July 08 Day 8 Results My Pa vs Honka = Win £13.63 :clap Djurgardens vs Helsingborgs = Win £14.53 :clap Malmo vs Kalmar = Win £15.09 :clap Total Profit After Day 8 = £ 172.92 :nana
another great day... very lucky with the last two games with 2 late goals.. :clap
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Rage-Issues

Rage-Issues

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Re: 2008 / 2009 Football Laying System Right guys, sorry i have been away, so have not been able to post... But now back and down to business........ I have slightly adjusted the system, and here is the new format: 1) LAY THE DRAW HAS TO BE UNDER 4.O 2) GAME SELECTION: H/H NO MORE THAN 1 X DRAW (Going back till 2000, This is for the home games only) (also look out for the amount of 0-0) 3) REMEMBER THIS SYSTEMS IS TO TRADE THE DRAW 4) IF GAME IS STILL 0-0 @ 70MIN TO GET OUT AND TAKE A LOSS 5) STAKING PLAN - ITS UP TO YOU !!!! Ok here we go.... Starting Bank = £100 Day 1 - Sunday 24th Aug VFL Bochum vs VFL Wolfsburg = Lay Draw Internacional Porto Alegre vs Flamengo Rio Janeiro = Lay Draw

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Rage-Issues

Rage-Issues

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Re: 2008 / 2009 Football Laying System Well off to a good start at least, VFL Bochum vs VFL Wolfsburg Bochum went 1-0 up after 12min (Traded out at this point for a profit) Bochum 2-0 49min (Wish i had stayed in but made an ok profit anyway):clap Final score - 2-2 :loon I will post P & L at the end of play today, still one more game later (Only if below 4.0) Good luck all

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Rage-Issues

Rage-Issues

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Re: 2008 / 2009 Football Laying System Results - Day 1 - 24th Aug 2008 VFL Bochum vs VFL Wolfsburg (See previous post) Internacional Porto Alegre vs Flamengo Rio Janeiro Internacional went 1-0 up after 14 min (Traded out to make profit) End result = 1-1 :loon (Again a good trade) Total Profit after Day 1 = £11.69 :nana Bank After Day 1 = £111.69 :clap

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stone7

stone7

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Re: 2008 / 2009 Football Laying System A friend of mine "bought" this system from ebay. It read: Strategy 1: Laying the draw in football My personal favourite of all the listed strategies, mainly because, if you apply this tactic to the correct type of match, you are almost guaranteed to profit 100% of the time. I’ll explain what I mean by ‘the correct type of match’ later. For now, here is a summary of what the system involves. The concept is simple - when a goal is scored in a football match, the prices of all the match outcomes (home win, away win or draw) changes. How it changes depends on many factors such as which team scores the goal and the time of the goal. In this strategy we are trying to lay the draw prior to kick-off, with the aim of backing it at a higher price, once the first goal is scored, therefore securing a tidy profit. For example, say Liverpool are playing at home to Portsmouth. Liverpool, odds-on at 1.45 are expected to win the game and should score the first goal. In this event the price of the draw (7.20) would drift out, and you would then back the draw at the new price, giving yourself a free bet or equal profits whatever the outcome, depending on how you choose to play it. This on its own however, is fundamentally flawed, for two main reasons. Can you think why? If you came to the conclusion that either the underdog, so Portsmouth in the previous example, might score first or the game could finish 0-0, commend yourself. Obviously, should the unfancied side score first, the draw odds you steam, leaving you in a nasty position. Similarly, if no goal was scored, the price of the draw you continue to steam, further and further inwards, leaving you out of pocket. The good news, however, is that both of these problems can be rectified leaving us with the perfect strategy (or at least I’ve never lost money this way after using it many times to make money). I discuss how we nullify the risk of the 0-0 and the underdog scoring in the next section. For now, I leave you asking if you can think of what the solutions are? It’s not a brain teaser, the answers are straight-forward and this is just a simple exercise to help you solve your own problems when/if you create strategies like this on your own. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Part 2: Strategy 1: Laying the draw in football (continued) Do you think you have the solution to the problem we had earlier on in ‘Part 1’? Congratulations if you came up with the idea to back the 0-0 so that, if it wins, it covers the liability of your lay in the correct scores market, to eliminate the chance that the game could finish scoreless, and potentially penniless. Equal congratulations if you were able to think of only choosing games where the two teams had a relatively equal chance of winning, to eradicate the possibility of an unfancied underdog like Sunderland scoring against one of the footballing giants like Manchester United. Simply add these new filters to the previous version of the lay-the-draw theory discussed in ‘Part 1’ and you create a no lose situation for yourself. Below is a real example of the type of game you should looking for and one that I put money on. It occurred during the 2006 World Cup. In a quarter-final match, an impressive looking Argentina were drawn to play host nation, Germany. Many people predicted the winners of this game would win the tournament, and the odds represented the game would be a tight affair. Germany were slightly favourites at 2.80, the draw was available at 3.15 and Argentina were also available to back at 3.15. The fact that the odds suggested the game would be close meant that there was no real underdog, meaning, regardless of which country scored the first goal, the price of the draw would still shoot up afterwards, to be backed at a higher price. Confident I had created a no-lose situation, the draw was layed for a £465, giving a liability just under £1000 and, to cover my loss in the event of a 0-0, I backed the 0-0 at for £120 11.0, to leave me with a tidy profit, of £80, if the score finished 0-0. (£1080 from the 0-0 win after 5% comm. take away the £1000 liability lost on the draw lay). The game promptly started and I sat back waiting for the first goal. Argentina provided it and the price of the draw shot up immediately after the brief suspension that occurs once a goal is scored. I backed the draw at 6.50 with a stake of £250, knowing I’d just secured a nice profit, for doing very little. As it turned out, the game was a great example of why discipline is so important. I could have been greedy and waited a while trying to get a higher price for the draw. This could have been disastrous for me, because, as it turned out the Germans equalised and the match ended 1-1 (with Germany going through on penalties). Consequently, the price of the draw dropped to odds-on and, had I not stuck to the rules strictly and secured my profits immediately after the first goal, I would have been down a lot of money! In the end, my profit/loss figures from the game were as follows… £1375 - £1000 = £375 (or £356.25 after comm.. on net winnings) £356.25) - £120 = £236.25 PROFIT/LOSS = + £236.25 Not bad for less than an hours work! I tried it myself for a large part of last season with varying results....£1,200 up at one point and £800 down come the end of season. It would and does work, BUT.................. 1. You have to be very strict on the staking. 2. You cannot let personal opinion influence your betting. 3. You cannot afford to be too greedy waiting for the draw odds to rise too high: a team is at its most vulnerable in the 5 minutes after scoring. 4. You have to be at the PC (preferably watching the game "live" too for the whole game, or until you've greened out.

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Datapunter

Datapunter

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Re: 2008 / 2009 Football Laying System Rage-issues, first a point of order: As this is the Systems & Strategies forum and you are posing in-running bets, you need to: 1) announce the intended bets before the match starts, and this includes the stake / odds / liability on the Draw Lay bet. 2) post in-running bets as and when they happen, or at least make a resonable effort to do so. 3) provide screenshots of all posted bets, can be posted here, using the proofing forum, or by email to a mod, doesn't neccesarily need to be done for each individual game, multiple games can be combined in an overview pages, as long as the screenshots are provided at some point. Have given you access to the proofing forum so you can see some of the screencaptures by others. http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/rules-posting-betting-systems-35636/

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Datapunter

Datapunter

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Re: 2008 / 2009 Football Laying System As to the strategy involved; done a bit of lay-the-draw myself. The best you can expect is a return profit of about 5%-10%. So if you lay the draw for a liability of 100 and you trade out then on average you may expect a profit of 5 to 10 per game. Considering that on most games you can actually bet on 1+ goals at odds of 1.05 - 1.10 the question becomes which is best. ( with 1+ goal you don't need to worry about an immediate equaliser or the underdog scoring first ! ) First of all keep a record of 1+ goals odds and then see if that would have given a better profit. You'll need at least 50 matches to get a resonable picture. Next step is to determine which strategy, Lay-the-draw or back 1+ goals, is most appropriate for which game. This is where you can get an edge. blindly betting Lay-the-draw or 1+ goals is not going to work long term. At best you may expect to break even.

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Rage-Issues

Rage-Issues

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Re: 2008 / 2009 Football Laying System Thank you Data Punter for the advice,...........anyway onto todays results so far: Results so far Day 2 - 25th Aug 08 FC Brno v Mlada Boleslav = Win:nana (did not trade on the match as i was not around, but just for the system results): Mlada went 2-0 up in the first 45min (we would have liked the home team to have scored 1st but, i would have waited until 1/2 time to see what the situation was, as it was 0-2 this would be a point to trade) End Result 0-2 :clap HJK Helsinki v FC Inter = Win :nana(again did not trade on this match) Helsinki went 1-0 up after 45min ( we all should have traded at this point) 2-0 at 61 min End result 3-2 :clap Last game of the Day is: Kaiserlautern vs Nurnberg (I well be around to trade on this game)

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lorenzo.

lorenzo.

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Re: 2008 / 2009 Football Laying System

Ok well we have had another good day Kaiserlautern vs Nurnberg = Win :nana Kaiserlautern have gone 1-0 up in 22min:clap (Traded at this point) i well post the days P&L after the match
What is your staking plan? How much do you stake in the beginning and for how much do you trade ? I just today learned about trading a little bit :D
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lorenzo.

lorenzo.

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Re: 2008 / 2009 Football Laying System I have another question about that "Laying the draw". It is said in the post of stone7 that if you pick a game you have to choose one where is no real underdog and then in the game when one of the teams score, backing the draw odds will rise up. But let's take today's Cagliari - Lazio game. The odds where something like that: Cagliari win(2,8), Lazio win 3,0 and Draw(3,15). Now Cagliari went 1-0 up and dominated the game, but backing the draw was still just 3,6-3,8. In that case, I don't know how to choose the games ... :( -edit- Same goes to Fiore-Juve game. (F-2,9 ; Juve-2,98 ; Draw-3,1). And now Juve is 1-0 up for some times and backing draw is still only 4,3

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Max2112

Max2112

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Re: 2008 / 2009 Football Laying System I've been reading this thread with some interest and realised that if you restrict your bets to certain leagues you could get a strike rate of well over 75% without even looking into the fixtures in detail. Using the H2H site I sorted the full time draw percentage and discovered that the SPL has a draw % of just 16.4% (strike rate of 83.6% laying the draw), Iceland 16.7% draws (83.3%SR) etc There are 6 leagues that give an 80% strike rate and 21 giving 75% and over - not a bad basis for a laying system. Assuming that some of the draws in these figures must have been 0-0 then this system would make a greater profit if backing the goalless draw as cover.

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LAY IT ON ME

LAY IT ON ME

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Re: 2008 / 2009 Football Laying System Hi Bazzdude. Can you(or anyone else) Explain in nice easy English terms,just how you do this please. "Using the H2H site I sorted the full time draw percentage and discovered that the SPL has a draw % of just 16.4% (strike rate of 83.6% laying the draw), Iceland 16.7% draws (83.3%SR) etc There are 6 leagues that give an 80% strike rate and 21 giving 75% and over - not a bad basis for a laying system." Thanks in advance. LIOM

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