AFL Rd. 11.

[TazaD]

At the risk of soundig mad (or drunk even ;) )...think there are 3 very live dogs this week... Carlton @ 6.50?! Crazy...I was hoping for somewhere around the +17 mark...but 6 goals? I know I was a little high on them last week, but it's certainly no shame to be pumped by Geelong inside the dome where they are pretty good defensively... ...sure 3 of their 'victims' have a total of 4 wins... ...but Port aren't any better. Still being rated as 'best team outside 8'...most likely to get in 8...etc. etc... ...3 of their 4 wins have been the bottom 3 with a win over a Saints team who are useless outside Victoria, by just 21 points at home. More than 50 I50's just once all season (Ess)...were pumped last week in the midfield, 38-51!! Travelling not such a big factor for the Blues with a big win in Perth already this season, and match-ups seemingly no problem either...met 5 times in the last 3 years for a Carlton win (Dome as 2.02 dogs)) a draw (AAMI @ 3.75) and 3 losses by 14, 34 and 23 last year @ AAMI as 7.50 dogs! I'll probably take the soft option, but very tempted by the 6.50 on offer...given I was after +17, +36.5 seems a gift. Eagles...again 4.00 looks big here. 2 teams that are totally different home/away... ...Swans av. just 42 I50's on the road!! Lost to Saints, drew with North, decent sized (if a bit unlucky) loss @ Geelong...small wins @ Brisbane and Port... Eagles 2-3 at home, losses by 14, 24 and 37 (just 2 less shots), and aren't too bad statistically at all. Swans won just one game in their last 9 @ West Coast...admittedly all as 'dogs...but still looks to be a decent hurdle. No better example of Sydney's home/away form this year than the 2 Port meetings already. Won by 68 at home (+20 I50's), but just 9 away (-8 I50's!!)... They also beat WC by 62 at home, but just 7 more shots and +6 I50's... Every chance this is a 'traditional' WC/Swannies game...low scoring and close. Eagles have to be a real shot here imo, and +24.5 looks enticing. Tiges?!...Anyone? :unsure Was hoping for +21ish...and now looks like I've missed all the 2.50s...so might just leave it alone $-wise, but likely still tip them. Crows another team really struggling away from home. Just 1-3 on the road, a win against Carlton with 5 more shots, butt were gifted 2 as the Blues tried to run down the clock at one stage. Also had a pretty easy draw. Beaten just one team in the top 8 (Kangaroos 8th...and one of the worst travelling teams), scraped by Port (6)...have beaten the bottom 3 four times! Yeah, Tigers are pretty rubbish, but actually won their last meeting in Melbourne (2006) by 3 points at the Dome as 6.25 'dogs... ...and lost by just 9 @ AAMI last year as 7.50 'dogs!! Another factor is Burton missing. The Crows' forward line has been much better this year with him firing...but when he doesn't... ...he's kicked 2 goals or less in 4 games this year...a 6 point win over Port, a 5 point win over Ess last week, and pumped by Hawthorn and West Coast, both on the road. imho, all 3 doggies are well over the odds. :ok On the flip side, can't see Geelong, Hawthorn, Brisbane or Collingwood losing...but all at very skinny odds... ...Doggies look like winning again, but no Murphy worries me slightly... Good luck guys. :cheers

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. What?! You're a total cowboy, mate! I wouldn't leave home this week, you'll be totally swarmed on by advice givers trying to fix you up (I'm speaking from experience) :lol. Yeah, I've got Carlton a 5.00 chance (and waiting). They arne't the strongest side around but we're mid season now and Port seems to continually be making a hell of a lot of pit stops for some apparent top-8 finisher. Thought the 6.00 on Kangaroos is little big. Their shocking form has been on the road and they've shown what they've got against WBD, just that they've also got a dodgy coach holding them back ... ... as have Richmond.

Another factor is Burton missing. The Crows' forward line has been much better this year with him firing...but when he doesn't... ...he's kicked 2 goals or less in 4 games this year...a 6 point win over Port, a 5 point win over Ess last week, and pumped by Hawthorn and West Coast, both on the road.

Didn't kick many but I think they were totally gone without him last week. He's a massive loss. 2.65 over at Sportingbet, Taza - I took the 2.80 early.