AFL Rd. 8...Finally!...

[TazaD]

The All-Star/Big V. game was better than I thought it would be, but still didn't compare to a real game of footy... ...so upwards and onwards... Friday Night game...looks a toughy (surprisingly!). No odds yet, but I'm guessing Collingwood will be decent favs...No Riewoldt now looks to be off-set a bit by no Fraser...esp. if King can be back. Collingwood only got the ball inside 50 38 times v. a very good defensive Hawthorn...and really haven't played another "top" midfield imo... ...Saints allow just 47...having said that, 40-54 last game v. Richmond is a HUGE concern... ...in fact, enough to put me right off I think!...yet 4 weeks ago went toe to toe with Geelong. Collingwood had 9 more shots in a win last season (no Rocca), despite having -6 I50's. And it's a major concern (or is it just luck that will even out?) but Saints allowing opp. to kick unbelievably straight. Since rd. 2 they've given up 82.45! Still, St. Kilda are the 3rd best defense (1.95) and better still considering the only 3 teams to have collared them have been Geelong and the Doggies. (Both undefeated, obviously ) No real idea...but depending on the odds, I'd be surprised if it was a Collingwood blow-out. Another interesting game down here on Sat. Stats would suggest the Hawks, given they allow just 41 I50's, held Collingwood to 38 last week who were the second best at that stage, and now face a Port team who have only topped 50 once. (Last week v. a terrible Bombers...) BUT, it's been shown that Hawthorn's backline is terrible when the ball does get there, and surprisingly Port have the 5th most effecient attack. Port won here last season, with 5 more shots and +3 I50's as 2.50 'dogs... But...they do have a disasterous D themselves, and Hawthorn should be able to kick another monster score here. Really like the over in this one. Will very likely get a low total due to the venue. The highest total in Hawthorn's last 10 here has been 196 @ 162! and last meeting here was just 169. I'll be happy to take aything from 199 downwards tho (weather permitting of course)... ...Hawks should win, but will be big favs. Port could be the dog of the round tho. I really want to go against Geelong here...but can't possibly take Richmond. Most of the Cats' games have been closer than the score suggests...which of course can mean two things!...and given they won both meetings last year by 157 and 70... The MCG will tighten things up, but this still could be the game that Geelong play 4 quarters. Tigers unlucky last week, but have been belted by Kangas and Coll...statistically belted by Hawks and Dogs... Geelong could win from anywhere from 2 goals to 150 points again!...every chance they'll be <1.20 tho. Can't wait to see the odds for Carlton/Brisbane...SO much Carlton hype now, and they are playing quite well...but Lions are on fire atm. Have the most I50's in the last 4 games, and only the second biggest dif. behind Hawthorn. A massive game v. Melbourne has inflated that a bit, but +6 @ Port, -4 v. the Hawks (who av. +11) and +2 @ Geelong last game! Despite all the big names and talk, the Blues have really only gotten on top of Ess (and still lost!), Melbourne and WC, so this one will be much tougher for them than most will think. After a bad loss @ WC rd. 1., Brisbane have lost too Hawthorn (12 points), Geelong and Sydney...both of which they were right in stats-wise. No surprise Brisbane have been big favs in their recent meetings, and won accordingly...but hoping to get the Lions as 'dogs here. Would love a +10 or so... Next 3 are all pretty boring... Kangaroos should belt West Coast (esp. no Kerr and likely Priddis still). They've lost all 3 road games by 10 goals +... ...but the Gold Coast venue worries me. 3 games there last year were two smallish wins and a loss...only beat Carlton by 17 (were 1.55 tho! How'd that happen?!)... ...and I don't think they're going all that well. Will be massive favs. Not confident of big margin. Crows minus just about anything! They've won last 4 meetings at home by 58, 54, 72 and 73...and are playing as well as ever. Amazing home D, giving up just 20 shots @ 2.36, and at the other end Melbourne giving up 36 shots! Allowing most I50's and have 2nd worst D...although it has improved ever so slightly in their last 4. Impossible to make a case for Melbourne. Would love Crows - low 30's?.. Sydney same boat as Kangas. Don't like them playing at ANZ...one big win there this year over WC, but only because they kicked so badly (5.15)...just +6 I50's. Lost 2 games last year there as big favs...one small win v. St. Kilda. Low scoring venue, but Essendon given up over 123 points in last 6! Bombers did win by a point last year at the SCG as 3.90 'dogs... Staying well away. Right, how much can the Doggies beat Freo by? Obviously Freo are better at home, close losses to Hawthorn and Geelong...but then a complete flogging by Richmond!... ...but a TERRIBLE defense (although they may get some good players back this week) up against the highest scoring team looks like a total miss match. Last week in Melbourne was the first time Freo had topped 100 points...Dogs lowest has been 112 last week...although they were outplayed by the Swans, there's no doubt the Dogs' defense and contested ball situations has improved dramatically. Dogs won last year's meeting (in Darwin) by 26, despite having 8 less I50's...obviously that area has turned right around...+8 this season compared to -7 last!! Even at home Freo have the 4th worse defensive numbers, so Doggies should really kick a massive score and win easily. Bit of a shame Freo lost last week, 'cause now the odds will be a bit skewed, but hopefully the Woofers will be backable. Wooo!! Might have spoken a bit too soon on some of those games now the odds are starting to appear... Collingwood 1.75!! I would have thought around the 1.50-1.40 even...on the Pies for sure at that price. Brisbane only 1.90... Dogs spot on 1.60 that I'd hoped for. Reckon we'll see Adelaide -32.5 or so which will be nice. EDIT: God lord!! I've just spotted the Doggies for 1.77!! Really could be one of the bets of the year @ 1.80!

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 8...Finally!... Yes, well Collingwood is a big big price and starting to fall, just then. 1.80 still available at Sportingbet, if quick. Will be watching team injuries on Bris as I also think they are just about a bet, maybe. I'm also liking Hawthorn, North and Sydney. Would be prepared to take low tomid 30's about the last two although a bit of a weather watch for the Gold Coast. Not that it ever gets around to actually raining. While at Sportingbet just then, took 41.00 Jack Riewoldt for the rising star.