Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd

[Spooner]

Newmarket 16:00 - Galeota 11/1 I backed this horse towards the end of last season at Donny where he beat some classy rivals, Back out today for first run of season. Quote from sporting life: 'GALEOTA put in some pleasing fast work at Everleigh as he limbered up for a shot at the sprint handicap at Newmarket on Saturday. Richard Hannon has his six-year-old in rude health for his seasonal reappearance, having saddled him to win two Listed prizes last year. A trip to Hong Kong had to be aborted but the way Galeota stretched away from a good yardstick here suggests he will soon be making up for lost time.' Im expecting galeota to go very close today and a short head like last time will be fine. :ok 5PTS E/W

[mileni4uk]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd Is there a draw advantage at Newmarket, lads?

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd

Is there a draw advantage at Newmarket' date=' lads?[/quote'] In the big handicap at 4.00 high numbers tend to do best.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd Cheers Ted. I want to know in general, because what I read in some of our old threads is that it is hard to tell who has advantage at Newmarket.

[mowgli77]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd Harvest Queen 2.45 Newmarket 1m1f Gp3 6 runner race but only 3 i'd give any chance to winning it. 2 of those are around the 2-1 mark whereas Harvest Queen is currently 5-1. Goes well fresh, winning both seasonal reappearances in 2006 and 2007. Has won over trips nearly this far and seems to prefer better ground it can quicken off. Often held up just off the pace and delivered with a strong late run, plenty of faith in Seb Sanders to time this right as he has already won 3 times on it from 5 rides and he held it up every time. Passage Of Time may need the run and drops back in trip while Heaven Sent made a pleasing seasonal debut, wiining a listed race but that form alone not good enough today and has failed to win at Group level several times. Value is with harvest Queen at 5-1.

[mowgli77]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd Ibn Khaldun 3.25 Newmarket 2000 Guineas Hard to see past New Approach considering its 2 year old form but I quite fancy the chances of Ibn Khaldun who I can see having a very good season now proving itself a Group 1 winner after the Racing Post Trophy. I felt New Approach preferred to bowl along and did not look as comfortable dropped in the race, could end up going off too fast or not running its preferred race and get caught by Ibn Khaldun who looks like the trip is ideal and was staying on very strongly at Doncaster. Has won its last 2 races comfortably and must be highly thought of for Simon Crisford and Saeed Bin Suroor to fly all the way back from the Breeders Cup to Doncaster when it won the Racing Post Trophy. Seasonal reappearance and who knows how Godolphins horses will start the season but willing to take this each way against the favourite, proven on good ground and going places this flat season in my opinion. I expect Frankie to just sit off the pace and deliver it late, kicking on about 1f out.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd 2.10 Prime Exhibit 4/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Put this up last time over further where it run at hq and ran respectably to a point but possibly not quite in with the main action and also not quite getting home properly, remains a good prospect though, form of win last season has worked out and the drop back in trip could just help it go flat out so to speak. Stable a bit quiet for winners so far (only 1 I think) which is a slight concern. 2.45 Heaven Sent 2/1 var 15 pts Run a lot of creditble races, not in top group standard but in group 3s/listed etc. including lto when won an a/w listed race at kem pretty well, trip looks just about ideal and the is a bit of a doubt about the main rival passage of time who never really fulfilled her promise at 2 last season and for whom the trip maybe a bit sharp for without a run so far this season. 3.25 New Approach 15/8 skyb 30 pts, Moynahan 100 betf 2 pts and 12.5 2 pts. New Approach looks a serious horse, 5 from 5, beat much of the field before and two group 1 wins prove undoubtedly he was the best at 2 last year and looks the type who should only get better at 2 when he moves up in trip, 1m today is seemingly wanted at least and in time surely will want even further and the ire. derby is planned for this one (shame it is not the real derby imo.) I saw it win the dewhurst last year, when it was an afterthought and not many horses can win group 1s despite appearing to struggle during the race, that in itself shows an element of class. Not sure if better ground will enable Ravens Pass to reverse form. It may have a slight temperament issue which could be the main thing that could knock its hopes. A shame that some potenial rivals like Fast Company, Jupiter Pluvius, Twice Over, Rio de la Plata and even bigger priced longshot hopefuls like Atlantic Sport and Gotheburg are not here but if I had to go for a long priced outsider it would be Moynahan. Now realistically it has it find and win hopes and more reaslistic place hopes are slim but if some of the rivals didnt perform then a big priced horse could sneak a place and thats happened before. Cole's Moynahan could be that unexposed horse. Fourth on debut when a bit green, it won nicely at York in a maiden from a horse who went onto be group placed and has formline with Stimulation. Sure to improve for that and will need to. connections think it will get the trip. the key though might just be that Cole had three other hopefuls for this Luck Money, river pround and even general elliot. The first two of those were not quite really top class but even so, performed with lots of credit at times in group races and the fact that this unexposed type is chosen ahead of them to run in this may just be significant. May sneak a place but imo if NA has his head on I think he wins as the main pick. 4.00 Beaver Patrol 14/1 7.5 pts e.w Gift Horse 20/1 7.5 pts e.w Barney McGrew 25/1 7.5 pts e.w all 5 places (sometimes means slightly lesser price taken) bog tough race so going with three and in three different places, high middle low. Beaver Patrol won this last year and whilst significantly higher now, he thrives in these types of contests (stewards cup, ayr gold cup ran well) and continued to improve last season, ran with credit too in dubai this season and likely to give his running and definite place claims.Gift Horse used to have that touch of class and whilst maybe not first string of stable he is off an ever dropping mark and whilst that reflects taht he is not in say the form of a couple of years ago, he has shown that ability remains and didnt have great luck at times last season (not clear run, bad draw etc.), even first up this season didnt have the best of draws, may still have a big race in him, strong travelling style suits big races like this. Barney McGrew has form at 6 and 7f which could be important as a strong finisher may be needed in this. Progressed last season and last two runs got bad runs both times, with a better run today, it shouldnt be ignored. 5.10 Ramona Chase 10/1 sj 7.5 pts e.w Looked fair prospect at start of 2 year old career, decent efforts in listed events but towards the end struggled in better company, however run first up this season encourages. From a long way back, it finished very strongly without the greatest of runs. Step up in trip definitely looks wanted now and could bring about further improvement which in what could be a hot race, maybe needed. 5.45 Silver Suitor 9/2 sk 7.5 pts e.w improved last season as he went up in trip and ended with a win and a a second at increased trip. Judging by entries, a fair bit thought off and aslo that stayeing is likely to be on the cards for this progressive horse. May find things a touch sharp at 12 first up today but could be one to follow this season nonetheless.

[Aykay1]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd 400 Newmarket: Theres 2 i want to back here, that are on my horses to follow list. GIFT HORSE @ 20/1 boylesports (pays 5 places) and BABY STRANGE @ 28/1 bet365 (pays 5 places)

This isnt necessarily an ante=post selection but GIFT HORSE has been slipping down the ratings over the latter half of last season and has shaped well as a result. He really looks primed to strike soon and his last race was encouraging. He's down a further 2lb's from that and is now rated 88, which is extremely fair on the pick of his form. I'll be following him in the short term.

Baby Strange caught the eye 2 runs ago when finishing 2nd, indicating he was returning to something like the form of his juvenile days when he was a listed winner. The 3rd and 4th have run v well since. Looks on attractive mark and could take advantage of a return to 6f after finding 5f too sharp last time out. Some stats: The last ten had been rated no higher than 95. 7 had won in a 16 + runner field with two who hadn't placing in a 16 + runner field. 7 had won at class 3 or 2 level No single figure draw has won since 1999.

[fintron]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd 2.45- Heaven Sent - beat a couple of useful sorts in Chantilly Tiffany and Nans Joy LTO at Kempton on the AW but has plenty of good turf form too. Hasn't won a group race yet (only Passage of Time in this field has), but the closest it came was a 0.75 length second at the Curragh last season so surely only a matter of time until she lands one for this top trainer. Moore takes the ride again so should go close. 7/4 2000 Guineas (3.25) - Stimulation (16/1) Favs have a terrible record in this race so I think Stimulation is a cracking EW price at 16's. Has a high draw which could be an advantage and won here over 7f in a listed race earlier this month when staying on well under pressure to get up to beat Fat Boy by a nose. The fact it hasn't won over 8f before doesn't bother me as not many of the previous winners of this race had either. Raven's Pass and Ibn Khaldun should be there or thereabouts too, but this one makes more EW appeal at the price. 4.00 - Genki - CD winner, only narrowly beaten by Turnkey on reappearance in a decent race at Ponte LTO and high draw could also help -as Ted's comment below could suggest. Runs off same mark again today so could go close and there should be no problems with the going, which is currently good. 6/1 4.35- Khandahar Run - won here last October and can gain compensation for a narrow defeat to Godolphin's new recruit, Campanologist, LTO, also here on seasonal reappearance. Short price, but should take all the beating. 4/6

[TheRat]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd 2.10 Newmarket Perks EW (Stan James WIN 5.50 Betfair Place 2.00) EW bet to nothing imo. Cracking run LTO when won by 6L over a mile. Was on good to soft and is unproven on good really, but the nature of the win LTo suggests can go well here, and the second and fifth horse have gone on to win since the LTO run which shows how good it was. Up 12lbs for the win but can go on to improve again and should be in the places at least if runs well and on the good ground. Dunlop won this race last year too so may have Perks ready to ain this again If Perks does run well, may well have a go on Pinkindie too in the 5.10 5.45 Newmarket Bid For Glory EW (Betfair WIN 13.5 Place 3.95) Had some big priced winners in this race over the last 10 years and I really fancy Big For Glory to go close. Trainer done well handful of runners recently. Good show LTO, behind Championship Point, who was just over 3 lengths behind Ask in the Gordon Richards Stakes, and behind Spice Route who is used to running in class 1 races. Has won over 1m 3f and there was nothign there then to suggest couldn't handle another furlong. Tough race to call but Bid For Glory is a big price here imo.

[Trotter]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd Newm - 4.00 - Damiki EW Improving type who is rising up the handicap, has won or placed in half his career runs, has won in big fields, has won at newmarket. Head 2nd to Turnkey at Ponte last time, came to win the race in the last 50 yds, but pipped on the outside Gets 7 furlongs - this could be ran at a furious pace with 25 runners, stamina might come in to play at the finish. Drawn 14 - the received wisdom is that high draws are best and most of the fancied ones are high, so he should be able to tuck in behind that group if (when) the field splits.

[billy the punter]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd 3.25 Newmarket There are similarities between New Approach and last year's winter favourite Teofilo. The had near enough the same 2yo campaign and both were expected to improve with age/distance. There is no doubt he has the best form on offer. There isn't a great deal of depth this year and I really believe the race revolves around him only. It is his to lose. He wouldn't be the first champion 2yo to disappoint in this and of the past 9 Dewhurst winners to line up in the 2000 Guineas, only one has been succesful. On Craven day I suggested laying Raven's Pass on the basis that so many hot-pots get turned over in the race, due to trainers leavnig something in the tank for later. Over the years I've always been a fan of backing those beaten trial fancies in the big race. Ok, only King's Best has one this in recent years after being beaten in a trial but many have run great races, leaving their trial form way behind. Dutch Art, Tamburlaine, Mujahid, and Revouqe were all beaten in their respective trials but all ran crackers to be placed on the big day. Rebel Rebel, Kandidate, Zafeen are others that found the frame in the 2000 after getting beat in a trial. I wouldn't be surprised if Raven's Pass improved on his Craven run and went close. His form is enough for him to be in the frame and with likely improvement likely he looks nailed on for a place. I think backing him place only is the most logical bet for the 2000. Raven's Pass 100% of stake place 1.99 betfair 4.00 Newmarket (Heritage Class2) A fantastic 25 runner sprint handicap, this is what punting is all about. My initial shortlist here is Hogmaneigh, Genki, Damika, Tajneed, Northern Dare, Baby Strange. Hogmaneigh - usaully comes on for his 2nd run of the season, winning on his 2nd start in the past two seasons. He is only 2lb higher than his Derby Dash win. His form tailed off a bit after that but that the same happened the year before. He may be an early season type and now might be the best time to catch him. Genki - I was really impressed with him last year, it's tough for a sprinter at three but he more than held his own, I thought he was a cert to win a big handicap this season. I nearly selected him on his debut but I was worried about the soft ground, he ran a cracker in 4th as I really believe he is at his best on quicker ground. His form on good or faster reads 121121. He has never been beaten more than 2l in a handicap and I wouldn't be surprised if he turned into a Listed/Group 3 sprinter. Stable form is still an issue with me however. Damika - Ran 4th to Cape on his seasonal debut and I really like the form of that race. Is 2lb worse off for beating Genki a length LTO and although I expect Genki to turn the tables he has to be included as they are so closely weighted. I'm not sure he has the class to win a race of this class however. Tajneed - Finished 3rd under inexperienced apprentine in Cape's win at Doncaster (Damika 4th) and franked that form when bolting up next time up. Has been clobbered by the handicapper for that and is wrong at the weights with Damika and Baby Strange, although ran well under similar marks in the past. Northern Dare - Ran a blinder in the Ayr Silver Cup and is weighted to reverse form with King's Apostle. Went off fav on his seasonal debut at the Curragh and was a respectable 3rd. The form couldn't have worked out better with the 1st, 2nd, and 4th winning. Sure to make a bold bid from the front. Slight concern about the ground, would prefer it easier I think. Baby Strange - Came back to form to finish 2nd to Cape in the race mentioned above (weighted to confirm places with Damika and Tajneed). He went up 2lb for that and I was very sweet on his chances LTO. I was a little worried about the drop back to 5f that day and it was indeed too sharp for him. He looked a certain future winner at 6f. He is very well handicapped on his 2yo form where he was a Listed winner and place in a Group 2. May want softer ground and this may be a little competitive for him but looks sure to striker soon. Genki 40% of stake 15/2 fred Baby Strange 20% of stake 32 betfair Northern Dare 20% of stake 8.6 betfair Tajneed 7.5% of stake 11.5 betfair Damika 5% of stake 19.5 betfair Hogmaneigh 7.5% of stake 27 betfair 5.10 Newmarket (Class 2) Surely the only thing that can beat Dr Faustus is fitness. Given an impossible task on his second start when running into Spacious over 7f. We all know how good that form is. He won with plenty in hand on his final 2yo start in a race that also worked out well. He is certain to appreciate the step up to 10f being he is by Sadlers Wells, which makes the 7f 2nd to Spacious look even better. I really think the handicapper has made a mistake with him. If he turns up 75% fit I can't see him getting beat. Dr Faustus 100% of stake 2.84 betfair

[bowles10]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd 5.10 Its that time of year to follow the Stoute bandwagon especially in certain races. YOu know they will be fit & will be trying. I am contemplating putting in a system for his runners but need to finalise some research. Today he has 2.10 Flawed Genius - Should get the 1m trip after winning at Salisbury last year & then having 2 indifferent performances over 6f. Is bred to stay these distances so should give a good account. At 13/2 looks a decent EW shout to start the day. 5.10 Dr Faustus - this appears in many lists this season to follow. Not suprisingly reflected in the price at around 11/8 mark at the moment. Was 2nd behind Spacious last season & then beat a decent field at Thirsk on final appearance. Flawed Genius EW best price 13/2 Dr Faustus WIN best price 11/8

[Aykay1]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd Who saw the 2.10 :eek The winner missed the break and was behind by about 10 lengths at the start and still won!! He hit 799/1 in running on betfair :lol

[TheRat]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd

2.10 Newmarket Perks EW (Stan James WIN 5.50 Betfair Place 2.00) EW bet to nothing imo. Cracking run LTO when won by 6L over a mile. Was on good to soft and is unproven on good really, but the nature of the win LTo suggests can go well here, and the second and fifth horse have gone on to win since the LTO run which shows how good it was. Up 12lbs for the win but can go on to improve again and should be in the places at least if runs well and on the good ground. Dunlop won this race last year too so may have Perks ready to ain this again If Perks does run well, may well have a go on Pinkindie too in the 5.10

Well, money back on Perks Going to leave Pinkindie alone but will follow with interest

[fintron]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd

Who saw the 2.10 :eek The winner missed the break and was behind by about 10 lengths at the start and still won!! He hit 799/1 in running on betfair :lol

Fantastic ride from Dane O'Neil, if one of the top jockeys had done that there would have been more of a fuss about it. Top stuff. Another brilliant ride from Ryan Moore too, top class on Heaven Sent.

[billy the punter]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd

3.25 Newmarket There are similarities between New Approach and last year's winter favourite Teofilo. The had near enough the same 2yo campaign and both were expected to improve with age/distance. There is no doubt he has the best form on offer. There isn't a great deal of depth this year and I really believe the race revolves around him only. It is his to lose. He wouldn't be the first champion 2yo to disappoint in this and of the past 9 Dewhurst winners to line up in the 2000 Guineas, only one has been succesful. On Craven day I suggested laying Raven's Pass on the basis that so many hot-pots get turned over in the race, due to trainers leavnig something in the tank for later. Over the years I've always been a fan of backing those beaten trial fancies in the big race. Ok, only King's Best has one this in recent years after being beaten in a trial but many have run great races, leaving their trial form way behind. Dutch Art, Tamburlaine, Mujahid, and Revouqe were all beaten in their respective trials but all ran crackers to be placed on the big day. Rebel Rebel, Kandidate, Zafeen are others that found the frame in the 2000 after getting beat in a trial. I wouldn't be surprised if Raven's Pass improved on his Craven run and went close. His form is enough for him to be in the frame and with likely improvement likely he looks nailed on for a place. I think backing him place only is the most logical bet for the 2000. Raven's Pass 100% of stake place 1.99 betfair

:wall:wall:wall Desperately unlucky to be out the frame. Coming stands side cost Raven's so many lengths. To make matters worse, the evil of Ballydoyle win. Has there ever been a more punter un-friendly big yard?

[billy the punter]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd Gutted with the 4.00 - Damika beaten a nut at a big price and Baby Strange fast finishing 4th at 33s. Genki was poor, I'm not a fan of Charlton at the best of times but this season he has been pathetic. I've said it one more than one occasion. Have to really think about backing any of theirs until proved otherwise.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd Think Raven's Pass lost the place by being drawn away from the pace. Gosden was a bit concerned beforehand. It has to be anchored otherwise it pulls too hard. So can not come wide (would've taken off). Just unlucky. Don't see why Ballydoyle is so bad for the punter Billy. Why? Ginge

[billy the punter]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd

Think Raven's Pass lost the place by being drawn away from the pace. Gosden was a bit concerned beforehand. It has to be anchored otherwise it pulls too hard. So can not come wide (would've taken off). Just unlucky. Don't see why Ballydoyle is so bad for the punter Billy. Why? Ginge

If they went centre it would've been different, once they come stands side the writing was on the wall. By unlucky I meant, it was expected that they would come centre. Probably would've done if the jolly wasn't drawn 2. Draw conspired against him like you say. With Ballydoyle, well they purposely make it hard for punters to fathom them. Multiple entries. Jockey bookings mean nothing. Red herrings with regards to quotes/vibes. ALWAYS an excuse for high profile losers (in order to insure stud values). Ruining races with pace-makers. Heavily backed often lose/big drifters win. Henrythenavigator is entered in a sprint and the Derby. I rest my case. I just find them near to impossible with regards to judging their chances. I don't bet in many group races though.

[bowles10]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd

5.10 Its that time of year to follow the Stoute bandwagon especially in certain races. YOu know they will be fit & will be trying. I am contemplating putting in a system for his runners but need to finalise some research. Today he has 2.10 Flawed Genius - Should get the 1m trip after winning at Salisbury last year & then having 2 indifferent performances over 6f. Is bred to stay these distances so should give a good account. At 13/2 looks a decent EW shout to start the day. 5.10 Dr Faustus - this appears in many lists this season to follow. Not suprisingly reflected in the price at around 11/8 mark at the moment. Was 2nd behind Spacious last season & then beat a decent field at Thirsk on final appearance. Flawed Genius EW best price 13/2 2nd 5/1 btn nk :clap Dr Faustus WIN best price 11/8 1st 5/4 :clap

both ridden by Ryan Moore. Easy enough return :ok Well done Billy also having a nice price about Dr Faustus.

[billy the punter]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd

5.10 Newmarket (Class 2) Surely the only thing that can beat Dr Faustus is fitness. Given an impossible task on his second start when running into Spacious over 7f. We all know how good that form is. He won with plenty in hand on his final 2yo start in a race that also worked out well. He is certain to appreciate the step up to 10f being he is by Sadlers Wells, which makes the 7f 2nd to Spacious look even better. I really think the handicapper has made a mistake with him. If he turns up 75% fit I can't see him getting beat. Dr Faustus 100% of stake 2.84 betfair

I don't think I've been this confident about a horse all year. Can't believe people were laying 15/8 in the early hours. :loon

[billy the punter]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd Cheers bowles - likewise. You were a little unlucky in the first the 800/1 (in-running) coming to do you.

[alexmac]

Re: Newmarket ~ Sat 3rd I agree your thoughts re Ballydoyle BTP. They ruin the top class races with their stupid multiple entries. Aidan O'Brian is also a tool...