Afl Rd. 5.

[TazaD]

Friday night game is giving me some problems! I can't help thinking the Bombera are a chance. Won last year as decent 'dogs...however Lucas, Lloyd kicked 3 each, and no Gehrig...not that that seems to matter any more! BUT, Saints did have 11 more I50's!! Only 1 less shot... BUT, What's realy changed?! St. Kilda WILL control the middle...they are an 8 I50 a game better side, and I expect that to be pretty spot on...but Essendon are much better either end, even without Lloyd. You'd have to say they were a bit stiff last week with a couple of injuries in game... ...BUT... ...Saints were very good laast week too. Matched Geelong in most areas, just kicked poorly, and really butchered some chances early in the last to close the gap. I hate these form reversal type games...Ess much better against Dogs than Saints, but Saints 1000 times better against Geelong than Ess... Very tempted by Ess +points...injuries will scare me off I think, but there might not be much in this one... Sydney +20ish for sure!! They have a decent record at Geelong. Lost last 4, but only by av. of 16...statistically dominated last year...+5 I50's, 127-115 contested ball only 3 less shots, and they are far better up forward this year. No Hall last year either. Now Geelong without Mooney and Gamble..."only" beat Melburne by 30, lost previous game to Port down there...they just aren't suited to the ground anymore. Sydney will love the scrap, and I think they are a real chance of winning SU. Can't see them losing by more than 4 goals either way. Crows good value at 1.40ish. Injury depleted and off a tough game last week...So were Freo I guess, but they got pumped by Richmond, not Hawthorn!! Freo have the second worst D @ 1.67...Crows still scoring well (1.79) but have struggled to get the ball forward last 2 weeks. I'm sure that will turn around in a "real" home game this week. Freo good record @ AAMI, won the last 2 roster games...but 7 more I50's last year, same shots, just the Dockers kicked a lot straighter and were more effecient (1.69-1.96) which I'd be surprised if that happened again! Haselby had a big game for Freo. 22 touches, 11 marks, kicked 3 goals...and the Dockers had kicked 16.2 @ 3/4 time! That definately won't happen again! Looking for the Crows -14 or so. I guess Hawthorn are deseved favs in Brisbane...their midfield has been outstanding. +10 I50's per game, allowing just 42!! Best in both... Brisbane have only won 4 of last 10 at home (Melbourne, Carlton 2 of them)...but Hawks have lost last 7 up there!...Admittedly all as dogs... Would have liked the Hawks at evens or better...bit slim here tho I think. Kangaroos (2.20) Already on. Do people not realise Collingwood lost last week to the worst team in the last 5 years??!! Seriously, this game is a complete toss up...I thought North would be slght favs even, so 2.20 is great, imo. Neither team in great form, Collingwood snuck passed a terrible Freo late, lost in Brisbane...both teams beat Richmond...but the I50's in those games are interesting. Collingwood were actually -3, Kangas were +10!! Collingwood got by (and fooled me! ) with their forward line, but against some crappy D's...Kanga's have kept Hawthorn and Ess in check, so they should have no real trouble shutting down the Pies, given Carlton did! The problem for Kangaroos has been scoring themselves, but I think they can hold the Pies to a low enough score to get over the line. Collingwood won last year's meeting, but 7 MORE shots, +7 I50's, 5 more contested possies, 5 more clearances... Bit of a joke really. Well, here we have it...a team that won it's first game in about 10 months are 1.40 favs! ...and you'd have to say rightly so. Some of Melbourne's numbers are horrific!!...Allowing 37 shots per game...allowing 61 I50's, getting just 43 (-18!!!), and allowing a shot every 1.64 entries. (Probably no wonder, given the backline would be worn out by HT!) At least they've scored a bit better last 2 weeks, but it's tough to see how they keep Carlton under a low enough score to be a chance. Melbourne won both meetings last year...but Fev didn't play in either. Carlton had 2 more shots in Rd. 14 and 9 more I50's... ...in Rd. 22. the tank was well and truly on, and they still had just 1 less shot, and had kicked 4.13 at HT! Not sure I could possibly take Carlton as favs...but...but... Dogs will pump Richmond. 1.40 is silly. Will be looking for -16 or so. Last week set up well, Dogs didn't play great v. Ess, Richmond belt a crappy Freo. Richmond have been pumped by Collingwood and Kangaroos, got lucky v. Carlton with the same amount of shots Dogs have won 3 meetings since start of 2006...1 at the Dome by 115. Dogs have the most I50's for the season (yes, more than Geelong)..[and the most contested possesions!!!]... and with a fully functional forward line and a pretty ordinary Tiger back half, I think this one gets messy again. Now, what happens when a very stoppable object (WC forward line) meets an extremely movable force (Port backline)? Who knows!...But given WC only had 23 shots @ 2.22 v. an equally bad Freo... ...at least Port can score I guess. They've won last 3 meetings, but all at home...they did beat Freo in Perth last year tho, so travel not really a factor. Both team's form non-existant...WC had 1 win by more than 17 in last 10 games (Richmond at home!)...Port really aren't much better... ...I just think last week's Brisbane game has counted against them here. Pretty sure they would have won had it not rained, and now the public has finally jumped off. Still, I think they are the better team in this one...1.90 looks fair. So, already on Kangas... ...looking at Sydney, Dogs, Crows and possibly Port and Ess...

[Ashtee]

Re: Afl Rd. 5. Yeah, Sydney are in great touch - better than last year. As you say, they can shut a few things down. I didn't detect a squeaky voice in that +20 comment did I Taza? :lol Come on mate, one in all in! ;) Freo are crap - bottom four along with Eagles. They're Hawthorn 2004 over again - tried to recruit a premiership from older slow players. I've also got my doubts about Harvey. How often is it Adelaide fail to bounce back? Likely will be taking the -16+/-. I like Bris as a slight favourite,Taza. Hawthorn in a vulnerable spot IMO. 4-0, travelling commitments with just the six day break, local wind and rain forecast and the tight ground to further cramp their run. They beat North at Telstra Dome but only due to a North choke (despite late Haw inj’s). The other three on big grounds – two poor opponents and a flat Adelaide. Brisbane started the season underdone but should be poised to raise the form from here. At 2-2 they have had a couple of things fall their way against strong opposition but they’ll rightfully fancy their challenge this week. Charman? Agree! Kangas stronger list IMO but suspect game plan. About evens IMV with slight lean to North who I'll probably give another chance at the odds. CARLTON! (Expecting to see Ads and Jeffers constantly in here this week - FOR THE FIRST TIME). Robo is visibly playing sore and Neitz doesn't seem much better. I've got my doubts Melb can do much about things. Port are a massive price IMO. Home fortress reputation (WCE) and 0-4 Port but they're a mile better unit.