cavello Posted April 14, 2008 Share Posted April 14, 2008 This summer from May I will again be posting my E/W value bets for non-handicap races on this thread. As usual they will be a combination of form analysis and markets comparsion methods. Also this summer I will include bets based on exchange prices where there are big overprices IMO but do not represent great value with conventional bookmakers. In addition I will advise E/Ws at Betfair SP if I believe this offers more value and may even advise place only on occasions. These may even include a rare bet in an handicap:loon Results therefore will be recorded in 2 sections. Staking will be in my usual range up to 10 pts. But the biggest bet I've advised in the last year is only 6 pts E/W (which won @5/2). Most bets will fall between 1pt E/W to 4 pts E/W and E/W doubles will often involve smaller stakes. 1, Summer E/W Value Bets 2. Summer Exchange Bets O.K will be back next month :hope for a profitable summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sousa Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 Looking forward for it Cavelloman. Good luck mate. :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 3, 2008 Author Share Posted May 3, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 2.35 Thirsk. Wells Lyrical 1 pt E/W @6/1 with BetFred:hope Of the main candidates for this race he has the most endurance packed pedigree with dosage figures od 0.85(DI) and -0.04.(CD) Obviously his ability may not be sufficient to win this but should at least do better over todays trip. Also with the influence of Sadler's Wells the going should also be to his liking. Modest stakes due to the number of runners with potential to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 3, 2008 Author Share Posted May 3, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 Exchange Bet. Ridge Dance 2 pts win @3.40 with BetFair :hope Finished strongly last season in races over 8 furlongs and could well have won the Royal Lodge Stakes with a bit of luck in running. A line via several of the field that day gives him a resonable chance of beating the favourite.If we ignore his terrible performance in the Racing Post race at Doncaster then the odds on offer look a bit too long and should be about 2.9 to 3 (IMO). Even with comm of 5% we are getting 3.23 which justabout sanctions a bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 3, 2008 Author Share Posted May 3, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 Exchange Bet 8.00 Hexham Mr Barnacle 3 pts win @2.02 with BetChronicle* In what looks to be a 2 horse race appears to be the one to back. When examining the form in detail, it is pretty clear that Mr Barnacle beaten a number of horses with either good form at that time or who run well in subsequent races. The same can't be said for Innominate who appears to have rarely finished in front of a decent hurdler. IMO my selection should be c1.85 so the odds here represent a little value IMO. *Betchronicle prices are closely relate to Betdaq and for the purposes of this thread I considered it to be an exchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 3, 2008 Author Share Posted May 3, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 2.35 Thirsk. Wells Lyrical 1 pt E/W @6/1 with BetFred:hope Of the main candidates for this race he has the most endurance packed pedigree with dosage figures od 0.85(DI) and -0.04.(CD) Obviously his ability may not be sufficient to win this but should at least do better over todays trip. Also with the influence of Sadler's Wells the going should also be to his liking. Modest stakes due to the number of runners with potential to improve. 3rd = +0.2 pts profit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 3, 2008 Author Share Posted May 3, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 Exchange Bet. Ridge Dance 2 pts win @3.40 with BetFair :hope Finished strongly last season in races over 8 furlongs and could well have won the Royal Lodge Stakes with a bit of luck in running. A line via several of the field that day gives him a resonable chance of beating the favourite.If we ignore his terrible performance in the Racing Post race at Doncaster then the odds on offer look a bit too long and should be about 2.9 to 3 (IMO). Even with comm of 5% we are getting 3.23 which justabout sanctions a bet. Last:$ Loss on bet = -2 pts That what can happen when you take a chance on a horse getting the trip and having it's first run of the season. My fault :spank Sometimes you need a reversal to keep yourself focused.:$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kamo Posted May 3, 2008 Share Posted May 3, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 Exchange Bet 8.00 Hexham Mr Barnacle 3 pts win @2.02 with BetChronicle* In what looks to be a 2 horse race appears to be the one to back. When examining the form in detail, it is pretty clear that Mr Barnacle beaten a number of horses with either good form at that time or who run well in subsequent races. The same can't be said for Innominate who appears to have rarely finished in front of a decent hurdler. IMO my selection should be c1.85 so the odds here represent a little value IMO. *Betchronicle prices are closely relate to Betdaq and for the purposes of this thread I considered it to be an exchange. Nice winner there Cavello :ok, he gave it a loveley ride :clap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 3, 2008 Author Share Posted May 3, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 Can't bekieve the price. I naturally doubled my bet:ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted May 3, 2008 Share Posted May 3, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 Me too, mate. I fancied it myself and can't believe it drifted. Was the better horse on form and proved that :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 4, 2008 Author Share Posted May 4, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet Newmarket 3.20 Infallible 1 pt E/W @5.4 with SportingBet. (1/4 odds):hope Clocked a time a little better then the Free Handicap on the same day but did it in an impressive manner in her race over 7 furlong.s The field she beat consisted of a field of fillies rated 90 to 100 in her Group 3 race but she beat them easily. The favourite Natagora may have more problems staying 8 furlongs then Infallable. Normally 115 OR is the level to win this race. If we assume that 1 length = 3lbs and you consider Infallible could have won by 6l in her last race then on my calculation she is up to the level to win this race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 4, 2008 Author Share Posted May 4, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W BET Hamilton 4.40 Lochiel 1 pt E/W @3/1 with BetFred:hope Based mainly on the figures HORSEBF PLBF WIN BOOK ODDS5-7 POT RETURN %% PLACE LOCHIEL1.633.954.00108.72%61.35 Selection run well on this course and distance and hopefully can upset the favourite who may just be a bit overrated. Most of the field bar the first 3 in the betting appear to be useless(fanous last words) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 4, 2008 Author Share Posted May 4, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet Hamilton 4.40 Prince Rhyddarch 1 pt E/W @11/1 with Betfred.:hope Glimpse of possible ability LTO. But again bet based mainly on market comparsions Prince Rhyddarch4.0011.0012.00102.27%25.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 5, 2008 Author Share Posted May 5, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet Kempton 2.00 Imperial Skylight 2 pts E/W @14/1 with BetFred:hope Just beaten on this course on first outing. On 2nd outing appeared unsuited to going. Clocked a fair time here and the race was also at this level class 4. The favourite was beaten in a class 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 5, 2008 Author Share Posted May 5, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet Kempton 4.00 Barricado 1 pt E/W @13/2 with Bet365(BOG):hope The market figures makes this an E/W vale bet . The form suggest this horse could still be progressing and on breeding got a good chance of acting well on an artificial surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 5, 2008 Author Share Posted May 5, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet Newmarket 3.20 Infallible 1 pt E/W @5.4 with SportingBet. (1/4 odds):hope Clocked a time a little better then the Free Handicap on the same day but did it in an impressive manner in her race over 7 furlong.s The field she beat consisted of a field of fillies rated 90 to 100 in her Group 3 race but she beat them easily. The favourite Natagora may have more problems staying 8 furlongs then Infallable. Normally 115 OR is the level to win this race. If we assume that 1 length = 3lbs and you consider Infallible could have won by 6l in her last race then on my calculation she is up to the level to win this race. Unplaced -2 pts:sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 5, 2008 Author Share Posted May 5, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W BET Hamilton 4.40 Lochiel 1 pt E/W @3/1 with BetFred:hope Based mainly on the figures HORSEBF PLBF WIN BOOK ODDS5-7 POT RETURN %% PLACE LOCHIEL1.633.954.00108.72%61.35 Selection run well on this course and distance and hopefully can upset the favourite who may just be a bit overrated. Most of the field bar the first 3 in the betting appear to be useless(fanous last words) Won profit = 3.75 pts:ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 5, 2008 Author Share Posted May 5, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet Hamilton 4.40 Prince Rhyddarch 1 pt E/W @11/1 with Betfred.:hope Glimpse of possible ability LTO. But again bet based mainly on market comparsions Prince Rhyddarch4.0011.0012.00102.27%25.00 Unplaced lost on Bet = -2 pts:sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 5, 2008 Author Share Posted May 5, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet Kempton 2.00 Imperial Skylight 2 pts E/W @14/1 with BetFred:hope Just beaten on this course on first outing. On 2nd outing appeared unsuited to going. Clocked a fair time here and the race was also at this level class 4. The favourite was beaten in a class 5. Unplaced missed the break and things got worse, Very disappointed:sad Loss on Bet = -4 pts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 5, 2008 Author Share Posted May 5, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet Kemptom 4.00 Coitton Reel 1pt E/W @12/1 with SportingBet:hope Reasonable form but a bit ofd doubt about staying ability but with this selection trading at 2.4 on the excahges for the place. I must place a small E/W Bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 5, 2008 Author Share Posted May 5, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet Kempton 4.00 Barricado 1 pt E/W @13/2 with Bet365(BOG):hope The market figures makes this an E/W vale bet . The form suggest this horse could still be progressing and on breeding got a good chance of acting well on an artificial surface. 2nd profit on Bet = +0.1 pt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 5, 2008 Author Share Posted May 5, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet Kemptom 4.00 Coitton Reel 1pt E/W @12/1 with SportingBet:hope Reasonable form but a bit ofd doubt about staying ability but with this selection trading at 2.4 on the excahges for the place. I must place a small E/W Bet Failed to stay but looked to have limited ability Loss on Bet =-2 pts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 8, 2008 Author Share Posted May 8, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W BETS 6.00 Wetherby 2 pts E/W Heezazari @3/1 with Bet365 1 pt E/W Robbie Dyer @14/1 with Bet365 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 8, 2008 Author Share Posted May 8, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W BETS 7.20 WINCANTON Red Admiral 3 pts E/W @7/2 with SportingBet Boot n Toot 1 pt E/W @ 6/1 with Bet365(BOG) All bets tonite's support by market comparsion plus form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 8, 2008 Author Share Posted May 8, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet late 1 pt E/W La Partara Rosa 6 /1 with >Bet365(BOG) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 8, 2008 Author Share Posted May 8, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W BETS 6.00 Wetherby 2 pts E/W Heezazari @3/1 with Bet365 1 pt E/W Robbie Dyer @14/1 with Bet365 N/R and placed profit on bet = +1.1 pts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 8, 2008 Author Share Posted May 8, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W BETS 7.20 WINCANTON Red Admiral 3 pts E/W @7/2 with SportingBet Boot n Toot 1 pt E/W @ 6/1 with Bet365(BOG) All bets tonite's support by market comparsion plus form. 3rd and 4th loss on bet = -2.9 pts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 8, 2008 Author Share Posted May 8, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bet late 1 pt E/W La Partara Rosa 6 /1 with >Bet365(BOG) 2nd profit on bet = + 0.4 pts Getting the % of placed results required just need to get some winners:wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 8, 2008 Author Share Posted May 8, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 E/W Bets Outlay to Date = 28 pts Return to Date = 20.15 pts Loss to Date = - 7.85 pts:\ Exchange Bets Outlay to Date = 5 pts Return to Date = 6.04 pts Profit to Date = 1.04 pts:ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 8, 2008 Author Share Posted May 8, 2008 Re: Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008 Exchange Bet Will the first 2 in the betting at exactly the same rating and the 3rd fav looking a little outclass in looks to make sense to bet the 2nd fav here who is a course winner. Fairoak Lad 1 pt win @3.5 2 pts place @1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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