Poisson Model

[protop]

Anyone got any views on using the poisson model for predicting 1X2 for football matches. Do you think it's a profitable way to go Do you use it yourself How about a modified version All thoughts both positive and negative most welcome

[Grex]

Re: Poisson Model Pardon my limited knowledge of Poisson´s Distribution, but I understood it expresses the probability of a number of events occuring in a fixed period of time if these events occur with a known average rate and independent of time since the last event (with acknowledgement to Wikipedia:clap). I don´t see how this theory can be "adjusted" to take into account relative strengths of teams and other dependable variables that affect the result of a football match. But I'm sure the "statisticians" among us will correct me! Perhaps it´s a case of one man´s poison is another man´s.... (joke) :ok