Football-Tipper Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 Re: Football - Recent Form Interesting... From your figures i'd have Bournemouth Draw 9/4 Carlise home win 4/5 Cheltenham Draw 12/5 Doncaster home win 7/10 Hartlepool Home win 18/19 Millwall home win 9/10 Brighton Away win 4/1 Port Vale home win 7/5 Swansea draw 3/1 Southend away win 8/5 Wallsall Draw 5/2 MK Dons away win 3/4 Chesterfield away win 7/4 Bury home win 11/10 Darlington home win 4/6 Grimsby home win 11/10 Lincoln draw 12/5 Barnet away win 9/5 Posh home win 2/5 Rochdale home win 6/5 Notts County away win 5/2 Wrexham draw 12/5 Stockport away win 2/1 Just rough predictions working it out in my head 1pt each bet 23 pts staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 Re: Football - Recent Form Today's UK fixtures showing how each team has performed relative to the win odds offered over the most recent six games. the higher the figure the better the expected performance ... the lower the figure the worse the performance. How do you calculate the performance figures..... for a loss, it seems to be 1/(decimal odds)..... but for a win??.... or am I just being stoopid :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DataMiner Posted April 12, 2008 Share Posted April 12, 2008 Re: Football - Recent Form How do you calculate the performance figures..... for a loss' date=' it seems to be 1/(decimal odds)..... but for a win??.... or am I just being stoopid :$[/quote'] I used average win odds available, individually for home & away team, then converted to p as you figured out . . . then . . . If not win, rating = -p If w, rating = 1-p So, a team average 1/2 (1.5) to win, p=0.66 if win, awarded (1-0.66) = 0.33 if lose awarded rating of -0.66 A team average 4/1 (5.0) to win, p=0.20 if win awarded (1-0.20) = 0.80 if lose awarded match rating of -0.20 The procedure just uses the bookies as an expert witness for the probability figure then awards perfromance ratings based upon how they played against that "expert" expectation. The 4/1 team was not considered a hot-shot, so a win would give a bigger reward than the 2/1 on team would get for winning. Equally, the 2/1 on team would be penalised more for losing. The process seemed to be based upon a certain logic, but like much in football betting, squeezing a profit from the figures does not appear an easy task. DM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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