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Arena Football System

JCtips

By JCtips
in Betting Systems & Strategy

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JCtips

JCtips

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Here's my Arena Football betting system (actually two systems in one) which showed a good profit last season (the Arena Football 2008 season starts today) going 87-71-1 (54.49%). I'll give it another try this season. Here's what I use: - Line moves vs moneyline (meaning the line/odd moved in favour of a team but the majority of the "public" is still betting the other way). Here I bet the team with the less number of bets... ...last year's record using this system was 38-30. - Bet on teams which had the handicap/point spread moved in their favour 1 point or more. Last year's record using this system 38-26. Using today's game as an example. The line opened at LA -8 and is now at LA -11 but still the majority of the bets are on LA. This game fits in both systems for me to take the opposite. My first bet of the 2008 season in Arena Football: LA-NO - NO +10.5 (2.00); Good luck! <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

:cheers

JC

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JCtips

JCtips

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Re: Arena Football System

My first bet of the 2008 season in Arena Football: LA-NO - NO +10.5 (2.00); lost Good luck!

:cheers

JC

It's a shame that NO couldn't hold on to that halftime lead of 33-28... ...better luck today. JC
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Re: Arena Football System

Here's my first bet for today: Georgia-Dallas - Georgia +5.5 (1.95); lost Good luck! JC
Lost this one. Here's my 2nd bet for today and my bet for tomorrow (I have to post early as tomorrow I'll have no time to post it): Today: KC-TB - KC +2.5 (1.95); Tomorrow: Colorado-Columbus - Colorado -4.5 (1.95); Good luck! JC
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klaymore79

klaymore79

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Re: Arena Football System Well done on the clean sweep yesterday, but I have a few questions as I don't understand some of this.

Here's what I use: - Line moves vs moneyline (meaning the line/odd moved in favour of a team but the majority of the "public" is still betting the other way). Here I bet the team with the less number of bets... ...last year's record using this system was 38-30. - Bet on teams which had the handicap/point spread moved in their favour 1 point or more. Last year's record using this system 38-26. Using today's game as an example. The line opened at LA -8 and is now at LA -11 but still the majority of the bets are on LA. This game fits in both systems for me to take the opposite. My first bet of the 2008 season in Arena Football: LA-NO - NO +10.5 (2.00);
How do you tell which way the money is going in this, and which bookie do you use? And chance you could give an example?
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JCtips

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Re: Arena Football System

Well done on the clean sweep yesterday, but I have a few questions as I don't understand some of this. How do you tell which way the money is going in this, and which bookie do you use? And chance you could give an example?
Hi Klaymore79. I use Pinnacle for this sport. You have several options for this: 1) Look at the lines (and take note) on Pinnacle when they open for the following weekend. This way you know how they're moving. 2) There are some sites out there where you can see the line moves (send me a PM if you can't find any). :cheers JC
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klaymore79

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Re: Arena Football System I get the handicap part, being doing that on the NFL for years, and I get what you mean about the handicap getting bigger, it's the people betting the other way I don't get. Do you mean the price/odds staying or getting shorter even with the heftier handicap? Like right now, there's a game tomorrow on that Pinnacle site that has Dallas -9.5 with odds of -105. Say Dallas were to get a larger handicap, -10 or more, and the odds got shorter as well, would this be a qualifier for the other team?

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Re: Arena Football System

I get the handicap part, being doing that on the NFL for years, and I get what you mean about the handicap getting bigger, it's the people betting the other way I don't get. Do you mean the price/odds staying or getting shorter even with the heftier handicap? Like right now, there's a game tomorrow on that Pinnacle site that has Dallas -9.5 with odds of -105. Say Dallas were to get a larger handicap, -10 or more, and the odds got shorter as well, would this be a qualifier for the other team?
You need to separate it into 2 different approachs like I wrote in my 1st post: 1) Line moves and where people are betting. You can check this out in several sites that have this info available in the web (like Wagerline, not sure if I can mention other sites here but there's too many people asking and this is surely one I use everday with consensus information). 2) If the line moves 1 point spread or more you consider it. In the example you give, the line moves 1 point spread but in favour of the other team (Dallas -9.5 to Dallas -10.5) so I would bet the other team (dog in this game). If the line moved from Dallas -9.5 to Dallas -8.5 I would bet Dallas. Hope this helps. Please also note that Arena Football seems to be the exception for this approach (it doen't seem to work as well in other sports) and that I only have data from 1 season (last one)...we'll need a bigger sample to draw better conclusions. :cheers JC
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Re: Arena Football System

You need to separate it into 2 different approachs like I wrote in my 1st post: 1) Line moves and where people are betting. You can check this out in several sites that have this info available in the web (like Wagerline, not sure if I can mention other sites here but there's too many people asking and this is surely one I use everday with consensus information). 2) If the line moves 1 point spread or more you consider it. In the example you give, the line moves 1 point spread but in favour of the other team (Dallas -9.5 to Dallas -10.5) so I would bet the other team (dog in this game). If the line moved from Dallas -9.5 to Dallas -8.5 I would bet Dallas. Hope this helps. Please also note that Arena Football seems to be the exception for this approach (it doen't seem to work as well in other sports) and that I only have data from 1 season (last one)...we'll need a bigger sample to draw better conclusions. :cheers JC
The line moved exactly from Dallas -9 to Dallas -10 (-10.5 in certain bookies). So, my bet for tonight is: Dallas-Colorado - Colorado +10 (1.97); Good luck! JC
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Re: Arena Football System

The line moved exactly from Dallas -9 to Dallas -10 (-10.5 in certain bookies). So, my bet for tonight is: Dallas-Colorado - Colorado +10 (1.97); lost Good luck! JC
Colorado had a very good 1st half but didn't do well in the 2nd and lost by...11 points :wall. JC
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klaymore79

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Re: Arena Football System Right, want to make sure I have this right, think I get what you're saying now. The game between Philadelphia and LA is up just now, with LA +2.5 points. I also found that consensus thing you were talking about on Wagerline, so I see what you mean about where the bets are, the majority on Philly just now. So, if the spread was to move to 3.5 or more, and people keep betting Philly, I would take LA instead, and if it gets shorter, to 1.5 or less, I would bet on Philly? Assuming of course there are more bets on Philly. Sorry to be a pain, but I want to understand this if I can.

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Re: Arena Football System

Right, want to make sure I have this right, think I get what you're saying now. The game between Philadelphia and LA is up just now, with LA +2.5 points. I also found that consensus thing you were talking about on Wagerline, so I see what you mean about where the bets are, the majority on Philly just now. So, if the spread was to move to 3.5 or more, and people keep betting Philly, I would take LA instead, and if it gets shorter, to 1.5 or less, I would bet on Philly? Assuming of course there are more bets on Philly. Sorry to be a pain, but I want to understand this if I can.
It's OK Klay, I'm glad I can be of assistance. Indeed, one of the systems bets on a team if the point spread moves 1 point or more regardless of the betting percentages on both teams. Tonight I'm taking LA+4 as the line moved from +2.5 to +4. The other system is like you mentioned : "So, if the spread was to move to 3.5 or more, and people keep betting Philly, I would take LA instead". :cheers JC
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