Wumpking Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted January 31, 2008 Author Share Posted January 31, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System Selections for the weekend: England (-12) - £5.00 @ 1.91 with Blue Square Scotland (+5) - £5.00 @ 2.00 with Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted January 31, 2008 Share Posted January 31, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System good luck mate - looks interesting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted January 31, 2008 Author Share Posted January 31, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System good luck mate - looks interesting! Thanks for the good wishes aliando. Lets hope the system gets off to a good start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted February 1, 2008 Share Posted February 1, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System Good luck with this Wumpking! Provides a valuable tool with which to begin handicap head-scratching each game. I fear I'm (sometimes) going to be a bit of a contrarian, as can be seen in the 6N rugby thread. Which i think is here... http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?p=989055#post989055 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 1, 2008 Share Posted February 1, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System Good to see this in action. I remember reading somewhere (can't remember where exactly) that the IRB ratings are pretty accurate so be interesting to see how it pans out. One question though, what are you defining as a "significant difference" here? Presumably that will be what makes or breaks the system. Might be worth tracking all matches (even if you are not betting on them) to see how the system holds in general. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted February 1, 2008 Author Share Posted February 1, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System Good luck with this Wumpking! Provides a valuable tool with which to begin handicap head-scratching each game. I fear I'm (sometimes) going to be a bit of a contrarian, as can be seen in the 6N rugby thread. Which i think is here... http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?p=989055#post989055 Cheers Pie-chucker. Will be good to compare and contrast views over the coming months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted February 1, 2008 Author Share Posted February 1, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System Good to see this in action. I remember reading somewhere (can't remember where exactly) that the IRB ratings are pretty accurate so be interesting to see how it pans out. One question though' date=' what are you defining as a "significant difference" here? Presumably that will be what makes or breaks the system. Might be worth tracking all matches (even if you are not betting on them) to see how the system holds in general.[/quote'] Cheers mcgin, thanks for the input. I've left the definition of "significant difference" kind of vague as I do not know what this is. I'm certainly not going to back anything with a difference of less than 5 points so maybe this will be the starting point. I am also toying on the idea of a progressive staking system linked to the difference (e.g. 5 - 10 points difference = 1 point bet, 11 - 15 points = 2 point bet, etc), but will await until I've generated enough data to analyse. Your point about tracking all matches therefore, is an extremely valid one. May take a while however, to generate enough data to validate as not many internationals played each year (15 Six Nation matches, 6 Tri Nation matches, 15 or so summer tour matches and 10 or so autumn internationals). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted February 3, 2008 Author Share Posted February 3, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System Not a good start to the system with both handicap bets not coming any where close. For the record: Total Staked£10.00 No. of Bets2 Winning Bets0 Losing Bets2 Strike Rate0.0% Yield-100.0% Profit / Loss-£10.00 The system derived points difference was also completely out in all 3 matches by 12, 38 and 20 points respectively :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System Wumpking, Was looking to see if there was any way to validate your system over the weekend, so I plugged the data for South Africa since 2003 into a spreadsheet. Although its a small sample (55), it does seem to show that there isn't much of a relation between the predicted score & the actual score particularly when you look at the scatter plot of (Predicted Score - Actual Score), the values appear to be randomly distributed either side of zero. Anyway I've attached it here for you to take a look at. conv_443.xls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted February 4, 2008 Author Share Posted February 4, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System Wumpking, Was looking to see if there was any way to validate your system over the weekend, so I plugged the data for South Africa since 2003 into a spreadsheet. Although its a small sample (55), it does seem to show that there isn't much of a relation between the predicted score & the actual score particularly when you look at the scatter plot of (Predicted Score - Actual Score), the values appear to be randomly distributed either side of zero. Anyway I've attached it here for you to take a look at. Cheers mcgin for the excellent input (as always). Good analysis. I really should have done this type of backtesting prior to launching the system :$. Based on the validation work you've done, it seems that the system may not work :sad. So what next for the system? Do I abandon, paper trail or carry on with small (or even smaller) stakes? I'll ponder this for a while (would be grateful for some input from other forumites that have been in this type of situation). In the meantime, assessment of this forthcoming weekend's Six Nation matches: Match No.DateTournieHomeAwayHome IRB RatingAway IRB RatingAdj Home RatingAdj Ratings DifferenceActual Points DifferenceBookies Home HandicapViable Bet?4 09/02/20086 NationsFranceIreland81.73 78.70 84.73 6.03 13 -11 No 5 09/02/20086 NationsWalesScotland76.17 75.32 79.17 3.85 8 -9 No 6 10/02/20086 NationsItalyEngland73.28 83.55 76.28 -7.27 -16 14 No No viable betting propositions so a bit of time to decide what to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted February 5, 2008 Share Posted February 5, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System Great stats and diligence, Wumpking, mcgin. Seems to me 6N is more about momentum, confidence in a side at the time. Gut feel from a punter's perspective. Trying to beat the handicap. Italy v England. England have scored 13 tries in their last 10 games. In 5 of those, they've failed to go over. They could put 3 tries past Italy - probably what they'll need to beat the cap. Italy line-out was rock solid in Ireland. Mallett would just love to beat England as a 'coming of age' for Italy. Won't happen, but there's more hunger with the home side somehow. JW may kick England close to the 16, but not sure. Sorry for random thoughts on a system thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 7, 2008 Share Posted February 7, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System Wumpking, I wouldn't abandon it just yet. I think since the rankings are based on results, and not points scored in the match, they would be better at predicting the outcome of the match rather then the points difference. So I imagine they could be used to identify value opportunities in the result market, so you may be able to setup a table which would equate the difference in ranking points to fair odds on the match. e.g. (I've just stuck random figures in here not based on any analysis!, and sorry the table looks shit but couldn't get it to look good) FAIR ODDS Rank Diffwinlosedraw. . +.5 1.8 2.2 51 01.951.9551-.5 2.2 1.8 51 . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 7, 2008 Share Posted February 7, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System Forgot to mention, in order to come up with that table, you either have to plugin all the previous results/rankings data for the past few years and use that to come up with estimated values, or just start tracking from now on and adjust as each result comes in. Either way it's alot of effort :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted February 7, 2008 Author Share Posted February 7, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System I wouldn't abandon it just yet. I think since the rankings are based on results' date=' and not points scored in the match, they would be better at predicting the outcome of the match rather then the points difference. So I imagine they could be used to identify value opportunities in the result market, so you may be able to setup a table which would equate the difference in ranking points to fair odds on the match. [/quote'] A good idea! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted February 17, 2008 Author Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System Still haven't devised new set of guidelines for this system. In the interim, here is the assessment of next weekend's Six Nations matches: Match No.DateTournieHomeAwayHome IRB RatingAway IRB RatingAdj Home RatingAdj Ratings DifferenceActual Points DifferenceBookies Home HandicapViable bet?7 23/02/20086 NationsWalesItaly76.79 73.01 79.79 6.78 15 -13 No 8 23/02/20086 NationsIrelandScotland78.30 74.70 81.30 6.60 14 -11 No 9 23/02/20086 NationsFranceEngland82.13 83.83 85.13 1.30 3 -6 No Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted March 3, 2008 Author Share Posted March 3, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System Still haven't devised new set of guidelines for this system. Have decided as only 2 weeks of 6 nations matches left, will leave until Tri Nations begin Assessment of this weekend's Six Nations matches: Match No.DateTournieHomeAwayHome IRB RatingAway IRB RatingAdj Home RatingAdj Ratings DifferenceActual Points DifferenceBookies Home HandicapViable bet?10 08/03/2008 6 Nations Ireland Wales 78.81 77.27 81.81 4.54 10 -3 Yes 11 08/03/2008 6 Nations Scotland England 74.19 84.96 77.19 -7.77 -17 9 Yes 12 09/03/2008 6 Nations France Italy 81.00 72.52 84.00 11.48 25 -19 Yes Bookies handicaps are 7, 8 and 6 different respectively to the estimated actual points difference. Furthermore, all 3 sides need good wins to put themselves in with a shout of winning the 6 nations. As such, selections for the weekend are: Ireland (-3) - £5.00 @ 1.90 with Bet365 England (-9) - £5.00 @ 1.90 with Bet365 France (-19) - £5.00 @ 2.00 with Boylesports Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted March 9, 2008 Author Share Posted March 9, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System All 3 handicap bets down the pan. Indeed, 2 of the 3 teams didn't even win :$. System update for what it is worth: Total Staked£25.00 No. of Bets5 Winning Bets0 Losing Bets5 Strike Rate0.0% Yield-100.0% Profit / Loss-£25.00 Well, I've totally lost all heart with this approach. As such: "This system is not pinin,' it's passed on! This system is no more! It has ceased to be! It's expired and gone to meet its maker! This is a late system! It's a stiff! Bereft of life, it rests in peace! Its metabolical processes are of interest only to historians! It's hopped the twig! It's shuffled off this mortal coil! It's rung down the curtain and joined the choir invisible! This.... is an EX-SYSTEM!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted March 9, 2008 Share Posted March 9, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System Unlucky dude, keep at it and hopefully it'll work out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted March 10, 2008 Author Share Posted March 10, 2008 Re: Rugby Ratings System Unlucky dude' date=' keep at it and hopefully it'll work out.[/quote'] Cheers David for the good wishes. I think however, that unlike Arnie, this system will not be back! I do intend to still review the IRB ratings but will use them only as a starting point in assessing and pricing international rugby union matches, rather than a be all and end all mechanism for determining betting selection. I suppose I was being a bit lazy just using them in isolation :$. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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