A Below Average UK Footy System – A Typical Help request

[leespam]

Right, I’ll try to keep this as brief as possible but this is quite long so I apologise. I’m going to span it out into possibly 3 individual threads so you guys can see how it evolves with – what I’m hoping – is the constructive input of the more illuminated punters than myself among <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Punters Lounge (which probably amounts to everyone on here ;)). This thread’s to do with the mathematical aspect of my ‘system’. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Now, I’ll start with I don’t particularly believe in systems. I’m a firm believer that you should trust your instincts to a certain degree and my “system†is more of a framework which can give me an indication of what “might be†value. From there I can look at the intangible things in football (which there are many) and work out what I like the look of and what I don’t.

Now, I’ve an idea for a “framework†which is basically a refinement of one that I’m using now. It’s all based on averages. It’s limited to only 3 leagues in England; Championship, League 1 & League 2 as the Premier League’s 1X2 is slightly different. It could possibly be adapted to other leagues, but I’ll leave that for another day…

As some of you will already know, the average 1X2 distribution for UK football is said to be roughly 45% of games end in a Home Win, 30% in an Away Win and 25% in a draw. Now the system I’m using at the moment uses 6 categories and each team is scored for each category (High, Medium or Low).

The system is based on the premise of if all teams score Medium (7.5 for Home Team, 5 for Away) for each category the %’s come out 45% HW, 30% AW and 25% D. Higher totals for Home teams result in an increase in the HW% and Higher totals for Away teams are divided by 2 and added to the Draw and AW%’s. My line of thinking there is if the Away team has a greater chance of winning, they also have a greater chance of ‘holding’ for a draw.

Now this is where I’m basically ‘on the tap’ for some constructive input regarding the High values and the Low Values. (And I also recognise my Draw/AW distribution is probably not the most accurate either!)

Now I’ve worked out that statistically the average records (5-Year) for the following are:

• The best-performing Home team come out as a decimal price of 1.44 (69.4% chance) for the home team (I’ve lost my calculations for this one, sorry :$)
• The worst-performing Home record comes out as a price of 4.61 (21.7% chance) for the home team (Avg. 5W, 6D, 12L record)
• The best-performing Away teams come out as a price of 1.92 (52.1%) for the away team (Avg. 12W, 6D, 5L record)
• The worst-performing Away record comes out as a price of 11.49 (8.7%) for the away team (Avg. 2W, 7D, 14L record)

So, conceivably I have High Values and Low Values for the best/worse price I would want in optimum conditions. The maximum price for the Home team would be 1.44; Maximum price for an Away team would be 1.92. Worst price for a Home team of 4.61 and Worst price for an Away team would be 11.49.

Now here’s the Million Dollar Question… How can I adapt this information to some form of calculation or Excel formula for my system? For example, at the minute I’m using these values for High, Medium and Low in my 6 categories:

Home Team Away Team High = 9.75 H = 7.25 Mid = 7.5 M = 5 Low = 3.5 L = 3

Best HW price I can calculate = 1.73 (Should be closer to 1.44) Worst HW price I can calculate = 3.81 (Should be closer to 4.61) Best AW price I can calculate = 2.08 (Should be closer to 1.92) Worst AW price I can calculate = 5.80 (Should be closer to 11.49 :eek)

Does anybody have any ideas on High, Mid & Low values that will give me figures closer to the max/min prices I ideally want? I’ve tinkered with the values but I can’t get something that I can really go with. Possible lines of thinking I’m working with are:

• More categories might allow me to achieve the bigger differences that I need for some of the ideal max/min discrepencies, i.e. 9 categories instead of 6?
• Maybe adapting the methods I use on the D and AW%’s?
• Using an average, i.e. 1.44+1.92 divided by 2 = 1.68; 4.61+11.49 divided by 2 = 8.05

Thanks if your still awake after all that :lol! I’d greatly appreciate any input, however small, and I promise I’ll show you guys all the final results from everybody's input as at the end of the day it’s only meant to be a framework – not the mythical, magical, ‘never-lose’ system some people strive for. (Oh, and the system is an extremely low-stakes one for me personally as opposed to a paper trail - I'm happy just for entertainment purposes at the moment)

As for what part 2 could be, I’ll keep you guessing for that one…

[aliando]

Re: A Below Average UK Footy System – A Typical Help request (Part One) way above my level but can see you've put a lot of effort in! hopefully someone can give you some help.