Race Tactics

[mowgli77]

Just thought i'd try get a discussion thread going about race tactics. Are there certain types of horses you prefer backing such as front runners, hold up horses etc and do you prefer certain tactics on certain tracks or surfaces? I don't often like front runners but some jockeys are very shrewd on very soft ground when they take a huge lead and find the other horses can't catch them as they have no way of quickening through the mud and have let it get away too easily. This happened at Uttoxeter when we were at the PL meet, one horse went about 15 lengths clear and although it was coming back to the field it was too far ahead for them to catch it. Similar thing happened on Lough Derg recently too. On the flat I like horses dropped in behind the leaders that can come from about 2f out and go past those that have set the pace. I also have a lot of respect for how Jamie Spencer rides those hold up horses, the way he rides he's either going to be a hero or a villain and a few fractions of a second may mean win or lose. I felt a horse needed to ask Harchibald questions last time out and question its attitude and McCoy gave Straw Bear a great ride and put Harchibald under pressure and got in front when it looked beat. I do like it when a hold up horse goes round all the field to win a race, maybe Exotic Dancer will be ridden with restraint again but can it get anywhere near Kauto and what tactics do you use to beat a machine like that?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Race Tactics Great subject this Mowgli. I take all the usual things in to account when accessing a race, like distance and going etc. But pace in the race and trainer form are possibly the two things that (I believe) give me an “edge”. In every race I bet in I look at which horses like to front run, race prominently, track the pace, are held up or dropped out. If there is only one horse in the race who fits in to the first two categories then it is likely to get a “soft lead”, getting its own way out in front. Or even allowed many lengths head start, I was kicking myself over Lough Derg. Possible prominent horses Oscar Park and Sonnyanjoe were non-runners on the day, leaving Lough Derg and the possible non-stayer Hardy Eustace as the pace horses. The latter would not want a strong pace so likely (as turned out) to be held up / track pace. This left Lough Derg as the horse likely to make it. (Trainer in very good form at the time too) all the others being hold up types. At least I backed Osana at Cheltenham (took 12/1). It is though necessary to look at those prominent horses to see if they are racing at the correct trip. A front running, staying hurdler, racing at 2 ½ miles (jumps), will need a strongly run race and may still set it up for a closer. Where as one running over its optimum trip is likely to have tactical speed. Able to slow the pace down , then kick for home when it wants to. There are some that need to lead to produce their best, sulking if taken on. These often represent poor value if there is another confirmed front runner in the race. Races with more than say three or four of the front running / racing prominently variety, can be set up for the hold up / dropped out horse. With early leaders going off too fast, taking each other on and having nothing left to repel the late closer. Though there are some courses which seem to favour front runners for other reasons. Wincanton's chase course has a fence unusually close to the winning post. Hold up horses can find it difficult to pass their rivals in a competitive race (unless a fast pace occurs). Sharp tracks like Epsom and Goodwood can favour front runners. Once a horse has got the lead it can slow the pace down, particularly if the jockey alongside is a willing assistant. The jockeys in behind will lose too much ground if coming wide before the turn ends. On a largely downhill straight it is difficult to come from behind if those in front are also quickening. I am not saying horses favoured in these races always win. But, if you can identify horses likely to have an advantage the way the race is likely to be run, it helps to find value and so profit.