racing post naps

[davyboy]

Hi, thought this was worth a mention... on the racing post site there is a naps table which im sure most of you are familiar with, on looking at it today i noticed that the bottom 10 are not in profit so turn this around & lay them botten 10 naps so long as none of the top 5 in table has same. there were 7 today & they all came up as lays!!, sp`s as follows.. 9/4,7/2,9/1,2/1,7/4 & 11/4....9/1 is a bit rich for my blood but non the less a good start, unforunetly i do not have time to post daily selections because of work commitments but if you guys would like to monitor it that would be great. also if anyone feels another filter or 2 is needed to improve then go ahead. could anyone take up the challenge??.

[davyboy]

Re: racing post naps

Hi, thought this was worth a mention... on the racing post site there is a naps table which im sure most of you are familiar with, on looking at it today i noticed that the bottom 10 are not in profit so turn this around & lay them botten 10 naps so long as none of the top 5 in table has same. there were 7 today & they all came up as lays!!, sp`s as follows.. 9/4,7/2,9/1,2/1,7/4 & 11/4....9/1 is a bit rich for my blood but non the less a good start, unforunetly i do not have time to post daily selections because of work commitments but if you guys would like to monitor it that would be great. also if anyone feels another filter or 2 is needed to improve then go ahead. could anyone take up the challenge??.

,....forgot to say there are 2 more races to come they are ..wolv 8.20 fresh mint & 9.20 obe royale..

[Rossd1]

Re: racing post naps Davy, I will do my best to cover it as best I can. Working away and a bit of time on my hands so will look into it as from tomorrow. All stakes will be 1pt lay at present with 100pt starting bank. All the best Ross

[welshman 2005]

Re: racing post naps think you got a decent system, :hope will be watching with a keen interest.:ok:ok:ok:ok

[davyboy]

Re: racing post naps thanx guys, early days yet but it sounds good & makes logical sense i think!, i personally would like to have a 5.0 cutoff on bf but we will see how it unfolds, wont take long at this rate of selections to see if it works or not. saturday will be a good test!:hope

[Rossd1]

Re: racing post naps Apologies, however I am not going to be able to proof this system with actual lay prices. I can log into Betfair, but due to being in Nigeria I cannot view the lay prices. On top of that it will not let me place any bets. This country is a nightmare at times. I am also here more than at home in Scotland as I work 5 weeks here and 3 weeks home. I will post the selections and would appreciate if someone could post the lay prices until I am home on 14th Jan for a few weeks. Todays selections 12.15 Chep Arctic Magic 12.35 Ling Bridgewater Boys 1.45 Winc Starzaan 2.45 Ling Millville 3.20 Ling Jack Sullivan (selected by 2 bottom 10 napsters) 3.45 Sand Patricknineteenth (selected by 2 bottom 10 napsters) 7.50 Kemp Electric Warrior Selected by bottom 10 napsters, also by top 5 and no selection 2.40 Sand Calgary Bay 1pt lay each All the best Ross

[davyboy]

Re: racing post naps 8 out of 9 up yesterday,...9/4,7/2,9/1,2/1,2/1,9/2,7/4,11/4,all up & 1 down at 9/4. not bad for starters!, will it hold.

[davyboy]

Re: racing post naps thanx to rossd1 for your help, any other helpers outhere could help with the maths, ie strike rate, points profit ect?

[Rossd1]

Re: racing post naps I will easy do the maths, all I need is someone to post the lay odds from Betfair and I can do the rest.

[Rossd1]

Re: racing post naps I am able to see the lay price on betdaq, so prices and selections as follows for day 1 12.15 Chep Arctic Magic (missed the lay odds so will go with 2.50) unplaced 12.35 Ling Bridgewater Boys 2.60 1.45 Winc Starzaan 5.50 2.45 Ling Millville 4.00 3.20 Ling Jack Sullivan (selected by 2 bottom 10 napsters) 2.58 3.45 Sand Patricknineteenth (selected by 2 bottom 10 napsters) 9.70 7.50 Kemp Electric Warrior 1.62

[davyboy]

Re: racing post naps i already run a laying system other than rp naps & on that i only ever lay up tp 5.0 on bf & only ever in minimum of 8 runners inc nrs, so if there was a selection in an 8 horse field & there was one nr than no bet...cant help thinking i should have suggested that yesterday, too late now for today but as from tomorrow min 8 runners.

[minted]

Re: racing post naps Hi, I know that oddschecker com show last Betdaq price before in-play. I don't know whether it is any easier to get odds off that website for the system. Anyway Good luck!! :hope

[Rossd1]

Re: racing post naps Ok, going to run both. All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. Also min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. Yesterdays results as follows. 12.15 Chep Arctic Magic (missed the lay odds so will go with 2.50) unplaced } WIN +0.95 12.35 Ling Bridgewater Boys 2.60 (1st) } Lost -1.60 1.45 Winc Starzaan 5.50 (1st) } Lost -4.50 2.45 Ling Millville 4.00 (1st) } Lost -3.00 3.20 Ling Jack Sullivan (selected by 2 bottom 10 napsters) 2.58 (2nd) } Win +0.95 3.45 Sand Patricknineteenth (selected by 2 bottom 10 napsters) 9.70 (N/R) 7.50 Kemp Electric Warrior 1.62 (1st) } Lost -0.62 Total Lost today -7.82pts Not the greatest of starts but early days. I will update totals roughly on a weekly basis. All the best Ross

[Rossd1]

Re: racing post naps All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. The following would have been yesterdays results as follows. 12.15 Chep Arctic Magic (missed the lay odds so will go with 2.50) unplaced } WIN +0.95 Total profit today +0.95 The filters greatly reduced the selection process. Time will tell. Ross

[Rossd1]

Re: racing post naps Ok, for today. All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt. 12.40 Sthl Dickie Le Davoir 4.60 1.25 Plum Kruguyrova 2.24 1.55 Plum Pocket Aces 2.10 2.10 Sthl Legend Erry 2.51 2.25 Plum Migwell 8.40 2.40 Sthl My Mentor 10.50 2.40 Sthl Dado Mush 2.57 3.25 Plum The Hardy Boy 2.52 All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt. 12.40 Sthl Dickie Le Davoir 4.60 1.55 Plum Pocket Aces 2.10 2.10 Sthl Legend Erry 2.51 2.40 Sthl Dado Mush 2.57 All the best Ross

[davyboy]

Re: racing post naps hi, i dont want to get to a point were i am adding rules to suit the results, ... but one other rule i do have on my other lay system is that if there are more than 2 or more non runners i void the lay, rossd can you add that to the others i mentioned earlier ie min 8 runners, max 5.0 cutoff.

[Rossd1]

Re: racing post naps Davy, No problems and see where you are coming from. Have to say today was not great, early days though. Will update tomorrow morning. I do have a quick question and a point to make. First the point - I am posting the odds at the time I check them and there is going to be fluctuation. However as you and most I do not have the time to check the odds all morning etc and get the best on offer. Wish I was a proffesional and could. My only concern is that the P/L on this is only going to be a guide to simulate the selection process, there could be a better possible profit potential. The question - based on the above, if this was real time and I was placing the bets as I post, what would you do if 3+ NR were to happen after placing the bets. I will include this and backdate the results tomorrow, however if the rules permit I will take for granted that the runners at the off are final and not at the time of my post. I hope this does not break any of the PL rules for this section and if it does, please let me know. I will set up over the next week or some spreadsheets that will simulate all eventualities as discussed so far and also any future changes. As I said I will be home w/c 14th and will have a good bit of time on my hands. Once all set up will let you know and e-mail you the results and findings with various variables. Also can send to anyone intereted. I would like to state that I will be travelling home next Friday and then going away with the misses for the weekend (have not seen her for about 5-6 weeks). Would appreciate if someone could post the selections and odds on Fri-Sun 11-13th and I will update the PL on the Monday. All the best Ross

[davyboy]

Re: racing post naps yeh i know what you are saying but i believe the non runner rule is an important one reducing the field cannot help even if its two 20/1 shots!, i stick by it religously & i make a point never to place my lays more than 30 mins before the off, on occasions i have been caught out but not often. i know this will only cause you more hardship with trying to monitor the situation but hopefully you will cope?. thanx for your help rossd. :hope

[Rossd1]

Re: racing post naps Yesterdays results Ok, for today. All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt. 12.40 Sthl Dickie Le Davoir 4.60 (1st) } loss -3.60 1.25 Plum Kruguyrova 2.24 (1st) } loss -1.24 1.55 Plum Pocket Aces 2.10 (1st) } loss -1.10 2.10 Sthl Legend Erry 2.51 (1st) } loss -1.51 2.25 Plum Migwell 8.40 (UP) } win +0.95 2.40 Sthl My Mentor 10.50 (2nd) } win +0.95 2.40 Sthl Dado Mush 2.57 (1st) } loss -1.57 3.25 Plum The Hardy Boy 2.52 (UP) } win +0.95 Days loss of -6.17pts All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt. 12.40 Sthl Dickie Le Davoir 4.60 (1st) } loss -3.60 1.55 Plum Pocket Aces 2.10 (1st) } loss -1.10 2.10 Sthl Legend Erry 2.51 (1st) } loss -1.51 2.40 Sthl Dado Mush 2.57 (1st) } loss -1.57 Days loss of -7.78

[Rossd1]

Re: racing post naps All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt. 12.50 Sout Strathmore 5.80 1.30 Ludl Pauntley Gofa 17.00 1.30 Ludl Amir El Jabal 5.40 2.00 Ludl Ingratitude 3.75 2.10 Taun Soulard 8.20 2.40 Taun Fiddling Again 3.20 2.50 Sout Elusive Warrior 3.15 3.10 Taun Treasulier 4.90 3.20 Sout Cragganmore Creek 3.85 3.40 Taun Delena 17.00 All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt. 2.00 Ludl Ingratitude 3.75 2.40 Taun Fiddling Again 3.20 3.20 Sout Cragganmore Creek 3.85 All the best Ross

[trigsbroom]

Re: racing post naps Hi, I saw this for the first time this morning and kept an eye on it, only Strathmore and Treasurlier won their races, and their lay odds closer to the start were 4.2 and 3.0 respectively, so laying all of them would have seen you 2.8 points up. It makes sense to me that, rather than not laying any selection picked by the top 5 tipsters, don't lay anything that is tipped by any tipster who is in profit, ie the top 13 today. That would have knocked off Ingratitude and produced a 1.8 point profit, Delena, however went off at 12.5+ so you may have preferred to avoid that one, it still lost though! ...early days but worth watching! Another way of using the Naps table that occurred to me, would be to lay any selections by a single poor performing tipster, for instance, I noticed a few years ago that Alan Keyte's strike rate is consistently high but as far as I know,he's rarely, if ever in profit. Today, his strike rate shows as 50%, but he's 9 points down, the reason being that he generally picks very short priced favourites, which apparently only win 50% of the time, so on level stakes there's probably money to be made there, and as my guess is that his selections are usually odds on, they would tolerate a staking plan well.

[davyboy]

Re: racing post naps Hi, thanx for that trigsbroom, you may well be right as i said in the beginning its all open for debate & filters, together we can all work on this one, who knows what the final outcome may be?, what i dont want to happen is that we have so many filters & end up with only one lay a week!. rossd has took on the paperwork as this is not my field, perhaps he would do a separate sheet for your idea??, what do you think ross?, we could end up with 10 versions of this all with different criteria!!, can you cope??

[Rossd1]

Re: racing post naps See no reason once I have all the information laid out onto spreadsheets, that there would be any problems. However not exactly sure how I am going to lay this out etc as yet. As mentioned I will be home w/c 14th and will pull everything together then with all variables possible.

[Rossd1]

Re: racing post naps All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt. 12.50 Sout Strathmore 5.80 1st } -4.80 1.30 Ludl Pauntley Gofa 17.00 UP } +0.95 1.30 Ludl Amir El Jabal 5.40 UP } +0.95 2.00 Ludl Ingratitude 3.75 3rd } +0.95 2.10 Taun Soulard 8.20 (NR) 2.40 Taun Fiddling Again 3.20 3rd } +0.95 2.50 Sout Elusive Warrior 3.15 3rd } +0.95 3.10 Taun Treasulier 4.90 1st } -3.90 3.20 Sout Cragganmore Creek 3.85 3rd } +0.95 3.40 Taun Delena 17.00 UP } +0.95 Todays Loss 2.05 pts All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt. 2.00 Ludl Ingratitude 3.75 3rd } +0.95 2.40 Taun Fiddling Again 3.20 3rd } +0.95 3.20 Sout Cragganmore Creek 3.85 3rd } +0.95 Todays profit 2.85 pts All the best Ross

[Rossd1]

Re: racing post naps All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt. 12.10 Sout Summersixtynine 15.50 12.40 Sout Shadow Jumper 23.00 1.10 Sout Wodhill Gold 3.35 1.40 Sout Copperbottomed 3.65 2.20 Leic Butlers Cabin 15.50 2.50 Leic Planet of Sound 3.45 3.10 Sout Godfrey Street 14.00 3.10 Sout Tartartufata 3.80 3.20 Leic High Tech Made 9.30 All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt. 1.10 Sout Wodhill Gold 3.35 2.50 Leic Planet of Sound 3.45 3.10 Sout Tartartufata 3.80

[Rossd1]

Re: racing post naps Results 08th Jan 08 - All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt. 12.10 Sout Summersixtynine 15.50 UP } +0.95 12.40 Sout Shadow Jumper 23.00 UP } +0.95 1.10 Sout Wodhill Gold 3.35 1st } -2.35 1.40 Sout Copperbottomed 3.65 2nd } +0.95 2.20 Leic Butlers Cabin 15.50 UP } +0.95 2.50 Leic Planet of Sound 3.45 UP } +0.95 3.10 Sout Godfrey Street 14.00 UP } +0.95 3.10 Sout Tartartufata 3.80 1st } -2.80 3.20 Leic High Tech Made 9.30 UP } +0.95 Profit for the day +1.50 pts All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt. 1.10 Sout Wodhill Gold 3.35 1st } -2.35 2.50 Leic Planet of Sound 3.45 UP } +0.95 3.10 Sout Tartartufata 3.80 1st } -2.80 Loss for the day -4.20 pts

[Rossd1]

Re: racing post naps Having to go out of the office and not going to have the time to check todays selections. if someone can, please do and if not will hopefully get back to it tomorrow if I am back or it may be Monday now before I am back in the UK. Apologies to everyone Ross

[gonxalo2000]

Re: racing post naps All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt. 12:50 Ling Atephobia 2.46 (run 3) 01:40 Muss King Daniel 16.50 02:20 Ling Cold Turkey 16.0 02:20 Ling Sgt Schultz 5.8 02:30 Kemp Rollin ´n Tumblin 3.25 02:50 Ling Risque Heights 5.0 03:40 Muss La Pantera Rosa 13.50 07:50 Wolv Moonlitesilhouette 9.8 (run 6) 09:20 Wolv Abounding 10 (run 7) All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt. 02:30 Kemp Rollin ´n Tumblin 3.25 02:50 Ling Risque Heights 5.0 can any one check it? good luck!

[Rossd1]

Re: racing post naps Thanks GX2000, I travelling today with work, tomorrow home, friday weekend with better half. if you cannot cover until I get back on Monday, would appreciate if anyone else can. Will get everything updated w/c 14th. All the best. Ross

[gonxalo2000]

Re: racing post naps Results 09th Jan 08 - All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 at any odds and runners. All selections lay 1 pt. 12:50 Ling Atephobia 2.46 +0.95 01:40 Muss King Daniel 16.50 (2nd) +0.95 02:20 Ling Cold Turkey 16.0 (3rd) +0.95 02:20 Ling Sgt Schultz 5.8 (2nd) +0.95 02:30 Kemp Rollin ´n Tumblin 3.25 -2.25 02:50 Ling Risque Heights 5.0 +0.95 03:40 Muss La Pantera Rosa 13.50 +0.95 07:50 Wolv Moonlitesilhouette 9.8 (run 6) +0.95 09:20 Wolv Abounding 10 (run 7) +0.95 Profit for the day +5.35 pts All selections by bottom 10 not selected by top 5 with min 8 runners and no greater than 5.0 odds. All selections lay 1 pt. 02:30 Kemp Rollin ´n Tumblin 3.25 -2.25 02:50 Ling Risque Heights 5.0 +0.95 Loss for the day -1.30 pts