Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System

[alense]

Ok, just finished a calculation that allows me to predict what the money line odds should be for NBA games. Hopefully my odds will be able to be closer to the true odds therefore allowing me to take advantage of the value in the odds offered by the bookies. The key factors that I have chosen to calculate the odds are Home/Away winning %, H2H games (last 5 meetings) and recent form (last 10 games). A couple of rules: No bets on teams playing the 2nd of back2back games. No bets on teams that have important players out of the lineup. No bets on odds less than 1.80. The difference between my odds and bookies odds must be more than 0.20. Developed this system yesterday and it picked Cleveland as a value bet and they won at odds of 3.70. Wish I had bet it!!! I'll try and get odds for all games posted and resons why and why not they qualify as a bet. For the sake of record keeping the bankroll will be a 1000 points and as stated above 1 unit will be 1% of bankroll. As we increase the bank by 100 points the 1% will be re-calculated, same will happen if bankroll decreases. I am putting money on these bets but only half my normal amount. I would not advise anyone betting these until they prove their worth.

[alense]

Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System My odds Pinnacle odds Charlotte 2.49 2.48 New Orleans 1.64 1.63 New Jersey 2.15 1.58 Washington 1.90 2.61 Detroit 1.68 1.21 Indiana 2.45 5.25 Memphis 2.88 2.05 Houston 1.53 1.87 Chicago 1.43 1.41 Milwaukee 3.29 3.20 Sacramento 2.21 1.59 Philadelphia 1.82 2.57 Portland 1.25 1.24 Minnesota 5.50 4.70 LA Lakers 1.45 1.54 Utah 3.18 2.75 Golden State 2.03 1.55 Denver 1.93 2.70 Miami 3.28 2.45 Orlando 1.44 1.64 San Antonio 1.42 1.31 Toronto 3.35 3.90 I am out for the evening but will be back to post what I am playing and why.