Can Anyone Help Me With My Football Ratings?

[Brijay]

Hi All, I am currently developing a football ratings system based on Prof. Elo's system of rating chess players. Though I have adapted it to take account each teams margin of victory rather than just the win, lose or draw. I have also given each team a home and away rating - for obvious reasons. This system has developed over the last 14,000 (and counting) English and Scottish matches that did NOT take place on neutral territory. I have also given each team a home and away FORM-rating, based on the weighted average of each teams figure for the last six games (with the last game given the strongest weighting) and comparing to its current rating figure. The aspects I need help with are as follows; how many of a teams recent games are relevant to its form? e.g. does a team's result of eight games ago affect its current form? and if so, how much? And how much more important is its last game compared to the games BEFORE last, and so on? Also, how relevant is form compared to the quality of a team. Which is better, a good team with poor form, or a poor team with good form? And is there a way of quantifying this form so as to be able to accurately determine how much it adds/subtracts from a teams final rating? Thanks so much for reading this, guys. And any help/advice you can give me will be much appreciated. Also, when the ratings are fully matured I shall be glad to share them with anyone who is interested. Thanks again, guys. And I'm looking forward to hearing from you all. Brijay

[SecondSight]

Re: Can Anyone Help Me With My Football Ratings? :welcomeBrijay Books have been written on what you are asking. My opinion is that I try to assess a team over a season's form rather than their last couple of games.