How To Produce A 100% Book

[Gingertipster]

How To Produce A 100% Book. Part 1. What is a 100% book? Was asked for advice on how to produce your own 100% book (tissue prices). The difference between a 100% book and a bookmakers tissue is a bookmaker adds his mark up. So a 5 horse race, where you believe each horse has the same chance of winning would be 4/1, 20% all runners. A £1 bet on each horse @ 4/1 would be staking a total of £5 and getting £5 back. A bookies tissue for a 5 horse race where he believes each horse to have the same chance would be 7/2, 22.22% all runners working to 111.1%. So a punter can not back all 5 runners and break even. What tools do you need? To be able to produce your own tissue you have to be a knowledgable punter. That means buying form books. Doubtful whether the Racing Post will be good enough on its own, but it is a good start. I myself only buy it on days I go racing or special days. My form books are from the Timeform stable. Can't say whether Timeform are better than say Raceform or anything else. It was the first form book I bought and because I did well with it have never looked elsewhere. Some people believe Timeform ratings are based on time performances but that is just one thing taken in to consideration. It's mainly form, one horse against the next. The Timeform advert. I buy the Timeform Perspective, a form book that comes on A4 paper in race by race format to go in a file 3 times a week. Each race has all the things you get in the Racing Post results only in more detail, and in my opinion to a higher standard (though I do use the RP as well). For example in the Perspective, the last run for Tamarinbleu (June 10th, Perth, 3m, good-firm) states, “looks an ideal type for the Summer Plate at Market Rasen as he is clearly better than ever in both spheres at present for the fitting of blinkers, while the shorter trip there should prove no problem whatsoever; indeed his speed as much as his stamina was the main feature of this ready display as he led on the bridle 3 out, soon opening up a healthy gap only to come to the end of his tether late on, certainly more superior than the winning margin suggests”. Tamarinbleu’s rating was just 2lbs below the joint top rated in the Boylesports Gold Cup. Perspective also pays particular attention to how much pace there was and if each horse was suited by conditions, temperament and jumping ability. Every horse has a write up, apart from the very worst quality racing that get a brief summary of the race. If you prefer your form book in horse by horse format then go for the Black Book, but in my opinion it does not give as much information as the Perspective. With Perspective comes a Briefing, giving all the 4 day declarations for GB and Ire. For each horse you get: a reference number (to look it up), trainers name, weight allocated, adjusted rating (what rating they think the horse is now capable of given its optimum conditions) and ratings for its last 3 performances. The latter includes type of race, distance in furlongs, Timeform’s own going assessment and rating the horse ran to for those runs. For non-handicaps there are the last 5 years ratings for the winner of that race and average rating of winner. This helps you deduce if this years race is sub-standard or if there is one well up to winning an average renewal. Sometimes if many horses are unraced, you can tell whether the top rated horse is up to the job by looking at these race winner ratings. You also get a section on the characteristics of racecourses, undulating, flat, sharp, draw advantage etc. I get Racehorses and Chasers And Hurdlers annuals that give breeding, characteristics and form summery of every horse that ran in GB the previous season, plus the best of the Irish French and Europeans. There's a seperate booklet included for the other Irish horses. Summaries for each horse can be a couple of lines for the worst animal, to 10 page essays on the best. A truly brilliant assessment and record of the season gone. The Statistical Review gives valuable stats. For example when one trainer's two year old strike rate goes up from 4% first time out, to 19% second time out. With information on stallions, average distances won by progeny, 2 year olds, 3yo and older horse stats etc.

[Gingertipster]

Re: How To Produce A 100% Book Part 2 My own opinion / race reading and the things I take in to account. Then there is my own knowledge and opinion. If you ask me about any other subject, I can not remember a thing, don’t even know what day it is sometimes. However, racing is another matter especially for the good stuff. Anything to do with form. Sorry am I blowing my own? I like to form my own mind on things before I look at Timeform but they do often coincide, no bad thing. However, when we do disagree they are just as often right. I went to a West Berkshire Racing Club meeting where a speaker Andrew Gibson (2nd in RP search for a tipster) was saying about patterns and profiles. There are many horses best fresh or on certain types of courses. I have been looking out for them this season. Not only horses but some trainers do well first time up too. The rating is only the starting point, it might be top rated but how likely is it to run to that rating given the conditions? Is it out of form? Was there a good reason for it running below form last time? Can it improve? Above all is it value? Does the horse act on the going? With a horse’s record on a particular surface, if a horse has proven himself on the going there is no reason to look at anything else. Though going preferences can change after an injury. If the horse has not run on soft going before, a round pounding action with its fore legs usually favours soft going. Judge horses by their actual performances. Sometimes Timeform can say a horse acts on firm and soft going when its soft form is 7lbs or more below its firm ground form. The sires record of producing horses that like the going can be important, Lomitas and In The Wings are sires (particularly on the flat) that in my opinion tend to produce soft loving animals. The two sires mentioned are also influences for stamina. If a horse has proven he stays the trip in a truly run race there is no need to look any further, but if not then breeding comes in to play. Although temperament is also a factor with distance requirements, with a lazy horse or one that relaxes often staying further than its breeding suggests. Where as an excitable one, that jig jogs or sweats up often does not stay as far as pedigree indicates. You also have to think will the horse be suited by the way the race is likely to be run? Does the horse usually front run, race prominently, track pace, held up or drop out. Races with only one of the first two categories are likely to favour that prominently ridden horse. They do not always win but are likely to have a better chance than its form indicates. Sometimes punters believe they are unlucky, when another runner pinches a lead and manages to hang on. However, studying the race beforehand you can often see one likely to get the run of the race. Races with plenty of pace horses often have strong early fractions when they take each other on, favouring those coming from off the pace. Some front runners sulk if they can not get their own way out in front, running poorly. In short, you have to look at whether each runner will be suited by a test of stamina or speed at the trip. Sometimes a slowly run race can suit a hold up horse who's got speed over shorter (provided he settles). These characteristics greatly influence what price I am willing to take about each horse. Temperament can sway my judgement. A genuine performer can out-battle its rivals especially at a course like Cheltenham. Where as some equines (dogs) like to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, so have much less chance than its form suggests. Another question, is headgear likely to help? A lazy but genuine horse yes, an ungenuine one usually, but not always no. On the flat there is draw advantage. Timeform do give their own assessment but I like to do my own with courses I regularly go to / bet at. e.g. Salisbury on a sound surface favours those drawn high, but only if there is no false rail. When the biggest field of the day is a bit less than the maximum allowed a false rail goes in (14 or less). Negating any draw advantage. Big handicaps on straight courses are often won by hold up horses drawn near the pace setters. Some horses might go better for McCoy, Walsh, Dettori, Fallon or Moore. But really the reason top jockeys are better is their consistency. Finding a particularly good claiming jockey is more rewarding. Some punters do not like backing apprentices so their horses often go off at a bigger price than they should, even allowing for their inexperience. Normally a jockey might make a difference of just one, possibly two percent either way. Trainer’s form for me has a far greater impact on who might be a good price than jockey. The two weeks record of each trainer is invaluable and is my first job when assessing a race. “Todays Trainers” in the Racing Post, gives the number of winners, placed and runners together with number of days and runners since last win. I prefer the Sporting Life web site though, going to each race and clicking on the trainer’s name. Giving every run in detail and (particularly for trainers who have had many runners) can be more informative. The rtf (ran to form) figures in the Racing Post can be of help but if a trainer has had only one or two runners, 0 or 100% can be misleading. I rate trainers from ** outstanding form, through *, */, //, /, /-, -, -x, to x don’t touch it. In reality most are rated between */ and /. Trainers second strings are often over-priced, they should be judged on form and nothing else, unless in as a pacemaker. You have to enjoy studying form to do it. I take anything between 15 minutes for a 7 runner grade 1 (most time taken formulating the percentages), to around 1 ¾ hours (class 4, 18 runner handicap). Making notes as I go in my own shorthand about all the above “form”, unless it is for a grade 1 or 2 race where I practically know the form anyway.