Ratmouth Posted December 13, 2007 Share Posted December 13, 2007 My idea is very simple. Pool opinions on which bookmakers consistently give tight odds on football matches that more often than not finish with those odds ringing true. i.e. average odds on "team a" with 10+ bookmakers of 1.7 but "chosen bookmaker" odds of 1.59 - then that team goes on to win an amount of times that defies the 1.7 odds on average. Then, once you have found the golden bookmaker and the events that they are particularly tight on, find odds that are particularly generous on Betfair (say 1.78) then back back back. Surely with a system like this, though very simple, should give a good yield. Obviously you have to watch for bookies that regularly give terrible odds on the favourite of any given event? I hope this makes sense though in honestly I am on my sixth drink! If we all pull together on this I think we could make this profitable. Thanks for reading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted December 13, 2007 Share Posted December 13, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input sounds a good idea in principle, but not sure about the amount of work needed here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted December 13, 2007 Author Share Posted December 13, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input Hi Ali, I was hoping that more experienced punters than myself may know of a bookmaker who is notorious for this type of thing. It not then it would probably require a lot of work initially but once we have identified the bookie or bookies that tend to get it right then surely the only work remaining is scouting through odds comparison sites...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted December 13, 2007 Author Share Posted December 13, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input Ok. Ladbrokes spring to mind so for a paper trial we'll use them for now. After having a scout through an odds comparison site there is one stand out bet at the weekend where Ladbrokes' odds are 1.66 and you can get 1.92 on Betfair. The game, Man City v Bolton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted December 13, 2007 Share Posted December 13, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input I guess what you're asking is, what bookie has the best odds compliers ? I think it's pretty well accepted that the guys at Laddies are top notch. If you see a massive divergence between them and another bookie, then value can be had. On your match, you can get 40% more odds on Betfair than Laddies, that says value for me. Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted December 13, 2007 Author Share Posted December 13, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input Exactly. Cheers AJ. It's worth a go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted December 16, 2007 Author Share Posted December 16, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input Unbelievably, the odds drifted to about 2.28 before kickoff, that is unreal! Anyway, a victory nevertheless...:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted December 16, 2007 Author Share Posted December 16, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input Tomorrow's games:- As again, bet with Betfair Belgium Charleroi v Gent - Charleroi odds - Ladbrokes 2.2 - Betfair 2.7 France Bordeaux v Marseille - Marseille odds - Ladbrokes 3.2 - Betfair 4.2 Italy Atalanta v Palermo - Atalanta odds - Ladbrokes 2.3 - Betfair 2.78 Portugal Academica v Nacional - Academica odds - Ladbrokes 2.2 - Betfair 2.6 Maritimo v Sporting - Sporting odds - Ladbrokes 1.9 - Betfair 2.18 :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tezmac Posted December 16, 2007 Share Posted December 16, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input Will watch with interest.Best of luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted December 18, 2007 Author Share Posted December 18, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input Man City v Bolton :clap Charleroi v Gent :wall Bordeaux v Marseille :wall Atalanta v Palermo :wall Academica v Nacional :clap Maritimo v Sporting :clap So, assuming a starting pot of £100 and staking £2 per selection here are the stats so far:- Bets 6 Wins 3 Staked 12 Profit/Loss 0.73 Yield 6.08% Current Pot £100.73 The above takes BF commission into consideration... Early Doors.... More bets to follow.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted December 18, 2007 Author Share Posted December 18, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input Wednesday's Games: As before taking advantage of BF odds when there's a significant difference from odds quoted by Laddies... £2 per game:- Milan v Catania Milan v Catania - Milan - Lad odds - 1.4 - Betfair Odds - 1.6 Reggina v Inter - Inter - Lad odds - 1.5 - Betfair Odds - 1.68 Espanyol v Deportivo - Espanyol - Lad odds - 1.72 - Betfair Odds - 1.97 Getafe v Anderlecht - Getafe - Lad odds - 1.9 - Betfair Odds - 2.3 Hapoel Tal Aviv v AaB - HTA - Lad odds - 1.57 - Betfair Odds - 1.79 Panionios v Bordeaux - Bordeaux - Lad odds - 3.75 - Betfair Odds - 5.2 Toulouse v Spartak Moscow - Spartak - Lad odds - 2.6 - Betfair Odds - 3.1 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted December 18, 2007 Share Posted December 18, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input Rat it seems to me though that you're just picking teams which price with ladb rokes is significantly lower than Betfair which is always gonna be the case! Perhaps if you came up with a system where the difference in price has to be over a certain %. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted December 18, 2007 Author Share Posted December 18, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input They are not all significantly higher. They are all higher but some more than others. I can see what you mean, there is no absolute science behind my picks other than finding what I view as significant differences. I also won't bet on anything much over 5.0 as when it gets more than that the difference won't mean much as you'll very rarely win those bets anyway. Not many of my bets will be below 1.5 either because betfair punters generally won't give you odds that are overly generous when there is an absolute "dead cert". What would you suggest for a cut off point for a percentage? What is the formula for working that out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAULM03 Posted December 18, 2007 Share Posted December 18, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input They are not all significantly higher. They are all higher but some more than others. I can see what you mean, there is no absolute science behind my picks other than finding what I view as significant differences. I also won't bet on anything much over 5.0 as when it gets more than that the difference won't mean much as you'll very rarely win those bets anyway. Not many of my bets will be below 1.5 either because betfair punters generally won't give you odds that are overly generous when there is an absolute "dead cert". What would you suggest for a cut off point for a percentage? What is the formula for working that out? I think you'd need to backtest - i.e. get historical data of ladbrokes odds and betfair odds and work out the amnount returned per unit stake as a function of % difference between laddies odds and betfair odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted December 18, 2007 Share Posted December 18, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input I believe the formula you are looking for is: (Betfair Price -1) minus (Ladbrokes Price -1) divided by (Ladbrokes Price -1) i.e using the Milan v Catania as an example it would be: (0.6-0.4)/0.4 = 0.5 = 50% which means Betfair price is 50% higher than ladbrokes. You could try a cut-off of 20% better as that's what betfair are always banging on about! Or alternatively you could collect the data for all games and then analyse the stats after 500 or 1000 matches and see if there are any patterns or any cut off point that sticks out. Best of luck. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted December 18, 2007 Author Share Posted December 18, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input Nice one Hodgey. Cheers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted December 18, 2007 Author Share Posted December 18, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input Okay. I've got a spreadsheet that works out the %age difference in odds and the cut off point (allowing for commission) could easily be 40% :loon and still have quite a lot of selections per week so I think that's reason to be optimistic. I can't see Ladbrokes being 40% greedy?! I can email the spreadsheet to anyone on request and maybe the techies out there could peruse and tweak it (I'm no Excel genius!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondSight Posted December 19, 2007 Share Posted December 19, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input I think your system will prove slightly profitable. I tend to look the bet at 20% better odds than Laddies or the same odds as Laddies if laying. I ma not convinced that Laddies are quite as good as they used to be. Some of their Scottish odds look suspect at times, but I still respoect their opinions on English games. They are also not doing too well in the Racing Sports experts table. Famous punter Geoff Harvey was convinced the back with Laddies system would be profitable, but his experiment was inconclusive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted December 19, 2007 Author Share Posted December 19, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input Cheers insight, Who would be the bookie you respect the most out of interest? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted December 19, 2007 Author Share Posted December 19, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input Milan v Catania - Milan - Lad odds - 1.4 - Betfair Odds - 1.6 Reggina v Inter - Inter - Lad odds - 1.5 - Betfair Odds - 1.68 :clap Espanyol v Deportivo - Espanyol - Lad odds - 1.72 - Betfair Odds - 1.97:sad Getafe v Anderlecht - Getafe - Lad odds - 1.9 - Betfair Odds - 2.3:clap Hapoel Tal Aviv v AaB - HTA - Lad odds - 1.57 - Betfair Odds - 1.79:cry Panionios v Bordeaux - Bordeaux - Lad odds - 3.75 - Betfair Odds - 5.2:notworthy Toulouse v Spartak Moscow - Spartak - Lad odds - 2.6 - Betfair Odds - 3.1:puke Looking good. Enjoying the bordeaux result!:lol Milan tomorrow, I'll probably post more selections later... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted December 20, 2007 Author Share Posted December 20, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input One more for tomorrow... AEK Athens v Villarreal - AEK Athens - Lad odds - 2.1 - Betfair Odds - 2.6 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted December 21, 2007 Author Share Posted December 21, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input Milan and Athens both went down :@ Here are the updated stats:- Bets 14 Wins 6 Staked 28 Profit/Loss +3.57 Yield 12.76% Current Pot £103.57 I'll pop some more on later... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted December 21, 2007 Author Share Posted December 21, 2007 Re: Idea Needing Input Two more for today:- Westerlo v Club Brugge - Club Brugge - Laddies - 1.72 - Betfair - 2.1 Nacional v Porto - Porto - Laddies - 1.4 - Betfair - 1.57 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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