cavello Posted November 18, 2007 Author Share Posted November 18, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Add 1.00 Carlisle 2 pts E/W Top Cloud @9/1 with ToteSport TOP CLOUD1.8511.0010.00137.59 % Edge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 18, 2007 Author Share Posted November 18, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Profit to Date = 27.93pts *:ok * For some reason did not put bookmaker's price for Razor Royale (I took 9/1 with Boylesports). So have just recorded SP for this thread. But who cares.:nana:nana:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaRoz Posted November 18, 2007 Share Posted November 18, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 In top form this weekend - well done! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 24, 2007 Author Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Last race at Ascot 3.30 Jimmy Ber 2 pts e/w @12/1 with Sportingbet:hope Finished 6th in high value bumper last winter in Ireland and looks to be progressing nicely. Was favourite for this event last season and may make amends this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 24, 2007 Author Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Last race at Ascot 3.30 Jimmy Ber 2 pts e/w @12/1 with Sportingbet:hope Finished 6th in high value bumper last winter in Ireland and looks to be progressing nicely. Was favourite for this event last season and may make amends this year. Unplaced when off at 7/1 on the exchanges and finished 5th.:wall If you keep finding value you will win long term and that what counts.:ok Loss on Day = -4 pts Profit to Date = 23.93pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 25, 2007 Author Share Posted November 25, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 First advice of the day 2.05 Plumpton 2 pts E/W Noble Ben @13/2 with BetFred :void(0)'>Noble Ben:hope1.847.807.50120.19% Edge Good edge for this runner. Should be suited by going left handed. Hung to right last season so :hope for an improved effort here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 25, 2007 Author Share Posted November 25, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Same race Teamgeist 3 pts E/W @11/4 with BetFred Act well on soft going and should be able to make a bold show here. Plus of course we have a small advantage based on market relationship. :void(0)'>Teamgeist1.414.003.75103.06% Edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 25, 2007 Author Share Posted November 25, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 12.55 Plumpton 3 pts e/w Jardin de Vienne @5/2 with Blue Square. Acts on soft going. Given a gentle first run of the season when finishing strongly at Folkestone on heavy going. :void(0)'>Jardin De Vienne1.363.703.50104.33 % Edge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 25, 2007 Author Share Posted November 25, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Same race Marsam. 2 pts e/w @8/1 with Bet365(BOG) Excellent value in what looks a very poor race. Reasonable form in hurdles in Ireland. Marsam2.009.0010.00155.56 % Edge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 25, 2007 Author Share Posted November 25, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Final advice for today. 2.25 Towcester Its a Discovery 3 pts e/w @2/1 with Bet365(BOG):hope If able to act on going should go close. Winning pointer plus with good form in NH Flat races. Mare's races are usually pretty weak here so a good effort must be expected from connection today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moddi1 Posted November 25, 2007 Share Posted November 25, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 great start:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spithas Posted November 25, 2007 Share Posted November 25, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap thank you :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 25, 2007 Author Share Posted November 25, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 2 winners 3 placed today Profit on Day = 25.16 pts Profit to Date = 49.09 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 26, 2007 Author Share Posted November 26, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Outlay to Date = 132 pts Profit to Date = 49.09 pts Yield to Date = 37.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 29, 2007 Author Share Posted November 29, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 12.40 Taunton 2 horses with good flat form. If they are to win over hurdles Taunton is the track. Both act on sharp courses on the flat and will act on the going if correct(gd to fm) Le Chiffre 2 pts E/W 8/1 @Bet365(BOG):hope Red Birr 2 pts E/W 9/1 @Betinternet:hope Taunton 1.10 Dr Dream 2 pts E/W 9/1 @Bet365(BOG):hope Well in on a collateral hurdle formline with the 2nd favourite . Consistent in selling races on the flat. This sharper course may suit better then Towcester and he may even go better on the faster ground today:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 29, 2007 Author Share Posted November 29, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Time for some E/W Doubles Red Birr 12.40 Taunton 7/1:hope Le Chiffre 12.40 Taunton 7/1:hope X Dr Dream 1.10 Taunton 8/1:hope X Josear 1.40 Taunton 8/1:hope Triggernometry 1.40 Taunton 8/1:hope 8 X 1/2 pt E/W Doubles = 8 pts outlay All above with Hills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 29, 2007 Author Share Posted November 29, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 12.40 Taunton 2 horses with good flat form. If they are to win over hurdles Taunton is the track. Both act on sharp courses on the flat and will act on the going if correct(gd to fm) Le Chiffre 2 pts E/W 8/1 @Bet365(BOG):hope:sad Pulled up Red Birr 2 pts E/W 9/1 @Betinternet:hope 3rd Taunton 1.10 Dr Dream 2 pts E/W 9/1 @Bet365(BOG):hope 4th beaten all of 3 lenghts and not placed:wall Well in on a collateral hurdle formline with the 2nd favourite . Consistent in selling races on the flat. This sharper course may suit better then Towcester and he may even go better on the faster ground today:hope Loss on Day = -6.4 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 29, 2007 Author Share Posted November 29, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Time for some E/W Doubles Red Birr 12.40 Taunton 7/1:hope:sad Le Chiffre 12.40 Taunton 7/1:hope:ok X Dr Dream 1.10 Taunton 8/1:hope:sad X Josear 1.40 Taunton 8/1:hope:sad Triggernometry 1.40 Taunton 8/1:hope:ok 8 X 1/2 pt E/W Doubles = 8 pts outlay All above with Hills Loss on Bet = -4.4 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 29, 2007 Author Share Posted November 29, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Profit to Date = 38.29 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 1, 2007 Author Share Posted December 1, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Early Advice. 1.10 Kempton Yamanmickmccann 2 pts E/W @4/1 with BetFred:hope Bred to be better at longer trip finished well over 5 at Lingfield. The stiffer track and 7 here may bring about an improvement. Small E/W in poor maiden justified IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 1, 2007 Author Share Posted December 1, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 1.00 Newbury Livingonaknifedge 2 pts win @7/1 with SportingBet plus 2 pts place @2.7 with Betfair:hope Looks totally overpriced. Acts on all going on the soft side. Rated higher over hurdles. Won LTO in this class. Should be suited to the longer trip. Taking on a number of horses from bigger stables hence the big price IMO. __________________ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 1, 2007 Author Share Posted December 1, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Blow me the place odd went in 2 minutes and it was not all me:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 1, 2007 Author Share Posted December 1, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 1.25 Towcester KeeptheDreamAlive 2pts E/W @3/1 Bet365(BOG):hope Standard 2nd fav against odd-on shot bet. Should be suited by the course and could bit up pieces if any flaws in the favouriote's ability over bigger obstacles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 1, 2007 Author Share Posted December 1, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Last advice of the day 12.40 Newcastle All for the Cause 4 pts E/W @6/4 with SportingBet:hope Brook No Arguements 2 pts E/W @8/1 with BetFred:hope Just plain E/W value in a 8 horse race with several looing to have little chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 1, 2007 Author Share Posted December 1, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Early Advice. 1.10 Kempton Yamanmickmccann 2 pts E/W @4/1 with BetFred:hope Bred to be better at longer trip finished well over 5 at Lingfield. The stiffer track and 7 here may bring about an improvement. Small E/W in poor maiden justified IMO. :clap:clap Profit on bet = 9.6 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 1, 2007 Author Share Posted December 1, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 1.00 Newbury Livingonaknifedge 2 pts win @7/1 with SportingBet plus 2 pts place @2.7 with Betfair:hope Looks totally overpriced. Acts on all going on the soft side. Rated higher over hurdles. Won LTO in this class. Should be suited to the longer trip. Taking on a number of horses from bigger stables hence the big price IMO. __________________ :sad Pulled up Loss on Bet = -4 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 1, 2007 Author Share Posted December 1, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Last advice of the day 12.40 Newcastle All for the Cause 4 pts E/W @6/4 with SportingBet:hope:clap:clap Brook No Arguements 2 pts E/W @8/1 with BetFred:hope:ok Just plain E/W value in a 8 horse race with several looing to have little chance :clap:clap Profit on Bet = 8.4 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 1, 2007 Author Share Posted December 1, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 1.25 Towcester KeeptheDreamAlive 2pts E/W @3/1 Bet365(BOG):hope Standard 2nd fav against odd-on shot bet. Should be suited by the course and could bit up pieces if any flaws in the favouriote's ability over bigger obstacles. :clap:clap Profit on Bet = 7.5 pts Forza Del Cavello:nana:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 1, 2007 Author Share Posted December 1, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Profit to Date = 59.79 pts:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 2, 2007 Author Share Posted December 2, 2007 Re: Cavelloman's Winter E/W Value Bets 2007/8 Small E/W bet based mainly on figures. 2.50 Leicester HORSEBF PRICE PLACEBF WIN PRICEBOOKIES ODDS6/5POTENTIAL RETURNSymbiosis2.809.009.00107.14 Decent form in the past for another trainer and note went off at 5/1 in novice race recently when hampered early but did lead till 3 out. :hope for an improved effort. Not one for a big bet but still appears to offer a degree of value. 1 pt E/W Symbiosis @8/1 with BetFred:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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