Does Value Betting Work?

[BigBugBuzz]

I would be interested to hear if 'Value Betting', using Betbrain's value odds actually works. Also, has anyone had success with mScope offered by Betgraphs.com? Cheers, BigBugBuzz

[BigBugBuzz]

Re: Does Value Betting Work? I have been investigating this question, and found some good but inconclusive information at: http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com/forums/free/other/index.cgi/noframes/read/2496 Has anyone here on Punter's Lounge run the numbers? I personally think this is quite interesting. Cheers, BigBugBuzz

[JCtips]

Re: Does Value Betting Work?

I have been investigating this question, and found some good but inconclusive information at: http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com/forums/free/other/index.cgi/noframes/read/2496 Has anyone here on Punter's Lounge run the numbers? I personally think this is quite interesting. Cheers, BigBugBuzz

BigBugBuzz, IMO the use of "Value betting" is important and, when in doubt, I personally do look at the Betbrain data to help me make my final decisions on a given event. I also run the probability or % of an event to occur (a victory, a draw, etc) against the table bellow (win % required to "break even", so you should consider it if you're looking for "value"): European odds Win % required

1.30 76.92%

1.31 76.34%

1.32 75.76%

1.33 75.19%

1.34 74.63%

1.35 74.07%

1.40 71.43%

1.50 66.66%

1.55 64.52%

1.60 62.50%

1.65 60.61%

1.70 58.82%

1.75 57.14%

1.80 55.56%

1.85 54.05%

1.90 52.63%

1.91 52.36%

1.92 52.08%

1.93 51.81%

1.94 51.55%

1.95 51.28%

2.00 50.00%

2.05 48.78%

2.10 47.62%

2.15 46.51%

2.20 45.45%

2.30 43.48%

2.40 41.67%

2.50 40,00%

2.60 38.46%

2.70 37.04%

2.80 35.71%

2.90 34.48%

3.00 33.33%

3.10 32.36%

3.20 31.25%

3.30 30.30%

3.40 29.41%

3.50 28.57%

3.60 27.78%

3.70 27.03%

3.80 26.32%

3.90 25.64%

4.00 25.00%

4.50 22.22%

5.00 20.00%

Example: Brazil played Argentina recently in the 2007 Copa America Final. Argentina was the clear favourite for "the Public" (it was almost like everybody already knew the score before game time) and it showed in the odds.

My analysis (which included the fact that it was a final) had Argentina to win with a 50% chance and the rest of the 50% for Brazil to draw or win. I checked the Betbrain data and it was similar to my analysis.

I had a 2.10 odd for Brazil +0.5AH (Asian Handicap) at one of the Sportsbooks I use.

So I did my calculations:

- I think Brazil has (had) a 50% of not loosing during 90m;

- According to the above chart, with the odd at 2.10 I need to be correct 47.62% of the time;

- Meaning, there was almost a 3% value (50% chance – 47.62% required for that odd) in that bet.

Brazil did win that game 3-0 and I made a nice profit.

Had Brazil lost that game, that would still be the appropriate bet for me (the only one with "value" according to my calculations).

My suggestion: use it to your own advantage but dont over do it (don't just go out there and play every game on the board where you make the calculations and see "value"...) and use common sense (like with everything else, that's the best approach) . Cheers. JC

[2hcb]

Re: Does Value Betting Work? well i think it does, as long as you ensure you take absolutely all the value you spot. I remember cymro posted earlier in the rugby world cup that wales not to qualify from their group was massive value @ 33/1. Of course it was, it should have been about 10/1 but i still didn't think it would happen and didn't take it, we all know what happened next!!

[BigBugBuzz]

Re: Does Value Betting Work? I noticed that most Value Odds occur on the long shot. This would tend to point to the opposite of a "Long Shot Bias", since presumably the value is being created by heavy volume on the favourite. Or am I wrong? BigBugBuzz

[Datapunter]

Re: Does Value Betting Work?

since presumably the value is being created by heavy volume on the favourite. Or am I wrong?

What matters to a bookmaker is not the volume that is bet, it is the volume he needs to payout, that is lowest on the favourite therefore he'll accept a bias at that end.

[Dominator]

Re: Does Value Betting Work?

I would be interested to hear if 'Value Betting'' date=' using Betbrain's value odds actually works. Also, has anyone had success with mScope offered by Betgraphs.com? Cheers, BigBugBuzz

No it does not work.. This have been tested before, and they lost big time testing Betbrain's so-called value bets. And it was a test over 1000+ games as well. I dont recall where I saw the test though, but it was a few years back, and payback % was something like 72-75% which a blind monkey probably could do better. There is no easy way to beat the bookies, thats why they make billions every year. Less than 3% of all punters can beat the bookies in the long run.

[JCtips]

Re: Does Value Betting Work? Everyone seems to have a "good point" on this IMO :ok. Like the dominator said, only 3% of bettors win money in the long run. To be successful you need to have patience, discipline, know the basics of money management, have a good betting strategy and also knowledge about the Sports betting market (because that's what it is). One of the main reasons why Sportsbooks make so much money (and 97 to 98% of bettors loose) is simply because of human nature. That’s right! People just love to bet “favourites”, “public teams” (teams that the “public” just loves and puts their money on, like the European top football clubs, the NBA Detroit Pistons or the MLB New York Yankees...), their favourite sports team and the “over” (when playing the total number of goals or points) in all sports as it is human nature to root for winners and scoring. Hope this helps. Cheers. JC

[fabt612]

Re: Does Value Betting Work? I agree with dominator. sites like betbrain are good to point to better odds but have you noticed that some bets supposedlly offer 200% value or something ridiculous and yet when you take all 3 outcomes they're never under the 100% book, that's because of the longshot bias. I think betbrain calculations imply that bookies take the same margins on each outcome which is not the case, hence the illusion of great value. the concept of value is a great one all the same, you just have to find it yourself...

[BigBugBuzz]

Re: Does Value Betting Work? That last post was great! :notworthy If bookies do not place the same margins on each outcome, but perhaps tries instead to foresee market movement from the outset, then Betbrain's method will fail. That leads to the important question, is it possible to reveal that systematic bias bookies place? I guess we can only do that by predicting accurately ourselves, right? Great thread this is turningout to be! :clap Cheers, BigBugBuzz

[fabt612]

Re: Does Value Betting Work? it took me some time to realise that bookmakers didn't have to worry too much about the odds as long as they balance their books, hence the fluctuations in prices. It seems it's punters who really decide what the odds are going to be and obviously they make mistakes . there is the long shot bias already mentioned but also the opposite happens as well, overrated hot favourites / english teams....I think that's where the value lies. as for sites like betbrain, one could even wonder if there are not created by the bookies themselves? all of the so-called value bets are still over the 100% book if you consider all 3 outcomes, it's as if all bookies had agreed on 'a line not to be crossed' (excuse my english). it is as if they took it in turns to offer value on some of the bets in order to attract punters and have them join their site... also have you noticed how some of these sites make it very easy for you to join / place bets with all those bookies? anyway I probably sound paranoid, this was just a thought, I could be wrong.

[Datapunter]

Re: Does Value Betting Work?

it took me some time to realise that bookmakers didn't have to worry too much about the odds as long as they balance their books,

A bookmaker business run to the letter doesn't care at all what the odds are, doesn't care at all even who wins. A bookmaker's primary method of making profit is the overround applied to all outcomes ensuring him an approx. 10% profit all around. As long as he manages the book, i.e. moves prices so he gets equal volume (payout) on all outcomes, he's ensured of profit. Some bookmakers do take a chance and go for bigger profits by adjusting the price beyond the overround, they sometimes also lose. I believe pointbet was an example of these.

also have you noticed how some of these sites make it very easy for you to join / place bets with all those bookies?

But that's the whole point. That's the way affiliate advertising works. When you click on a link at betbrain, or for that matter most bookmaker advertisements at any site, you'll see a code being attached to the link. Your signup will be registred and when you start betting (and losing) a commission is payed by the bookmaker to the site where your signup originated from. ( a bit more complicated than that but thats the general idea ) So the purpose of betbrain, and most sites like it, is not to provide you with a value seeking service. It is to get you to sign-up, and start betting as much as possible. Because they also know that the more you bet, the more you lose in the long run as there is no way around the overround. And if the bookie makes a profit, so does betbrain. Yes you can beat the bookie and make a profit, but its a feat only very few manage. Btw. it makes no difference to you as a punter wether you sign-up with a bookie through an affiliate link or direct. So if you intend to open a new account use an advertisement on a site you appreciate. That way at least should you lose a bit of your losses don't stay with the bookie but go to the site owner.

[Datapunter]

Re: Does Value Betting Work?

That leads to the important question, is it possible to reveal that systematic bias bookies place? I guess we can only do that by predicting accurately ourselves, right?

If you have a large enough database you can compare prices offered, implying an expected strike rate, with the actual strike rate obtained on all outcomes. That will show if there is a bias in pricing. I'd like to suggest to you this book: http://www.fixed-odds-sports-betting.co.uk/ most excellent all around and includes some info on the evidence of a favourite price bias. ( if i recall accurately, it's been a while since i read it )

[BigBugBuzz]

Re: Does Value Betting Work? I have seen that book advertised, but never got around to buying it. The text on the cover suggests that financial maths is used. I personally think the overlap between traditional finance and sports betting is very significant, so that is probably a good sign. I wonder how many sports bettors also dabble in stocks?! I suspect that there are an overproportion. Cheers, BigBugBuzz

[BigBugBuzz]

Re: Does Value Betting Work? Hi Guys, Am I the only one here who likes stock investing!? :unsure Agreed, while the methodology is the similar, it is more fun to bet on sports, and there is actually more info on sport, and you get to watch performace happen :ok Still, finding a good stock is exciting too! Like finding good value in odds. Cheers, BigBugBuzz

[Datapunter]

Re: Does Value Betting Work? If you start a thread in general chat about stocks you should get some response. Just bettingnuts in here ;)

[BigBugBuzz]

Re: Does Value Betting Work? Thanks, I will do that :) (I am a betting nut too)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Does Value Betting Work? Does value betting work? Yes value betting does work if you are prepared to put in the hours studying. I myself can not see how any program can work value out. The only way to know if you get value is by making long term profit. It does help a great deal if you know the table of odds and chances (the table JC Tips gives is part of this but in decimal form), whatever the sport you are interested in. After that get all the knowledge possible about the match / race. Work out what percentage outcome each bet has of winning to make your 100% book. Then back anything at bigger odds than your 100% book. e.g. Arsenal v Man Utd. You might think after careful study the chance of all three outcomes are the same, Arsenal winning, Man U winning, or the draw, are equal. Therefore 33.33% chances. You need 33.33% of your bets to win at 2/1 to break even. So the bet to have is any price better than 2/1. I know nothing about football, racing is my game. I have produced a thread called "How to make a 100% book" in the At The Races part of this site that value punters might find interesting (racing or other sports).

[SecondSight]

Re: Does Value Betting Work? Simple answer is value betting does work in the long run. Value = getting odds above true odds of the outcome. If I get 11/10 for heads I will win in the long run, if I get 9/10 I will lose in the long run, if the true outcome is 50%. I agree only 3% of punters win in the long run against the bookies. Your chance of succes increases on the betting exchanges, as the exchanges take less commission than a bookie. Possible 10% win on the exchanges. I probably break even with Bookies, but I am winning on the exchanges. I do buy and sell shares in generally profitably, by buying the unwanted. Bank shares are the cheapest they have every been in most people's memory. Selective buying now will make you alot of money on a 5 year time scale. 99% of buyers will not touch bank shares, that's what has made them great long term value.

[Gamer12]

Re: Does Value Betting Work? I agree with SecondSight. Bank shares are great for long term investment.