Table Of Odds And Chances

[Gingertipster]

Been talking about this for too long now but will explain the principals again and include the actual table this time. A punter who knows the percentage of winners he / she must win at a certain price, has a far better chance of making a profit than one that does not. Every punter knows for every £1 bet at 4/1 wins £4 + the £1 stake back. A return of £5 for every £1 staked. So if a punter has 100 individual £1 bets all at 4/1. Total stake £100. If he wins 20 of those 100 bets he gets back £100 (20 x a £5 return = £100) breaking even. If he wins more than 20 he makes a profit. Less than 20 he makes a loss. Another way of saying 20 out of 100 is 20%. So 4/1 = a true chance of 20%. So a punter who believes a horse (or whatever) has a 20% chance of winning should only back it if he can get better than 4/1. If he can not get better than 4/1 then he should look elsewhere for a bet. Now with 4/1. Add the first figure (4) to the second figure (1) = 5 Then divide the second figure (1) by that resultant figure (5) = 0.20 Then x that figure (0.20) by 100 to find the percentage chance = 20%. 4/1 = 20% 7/2 = 7+2=9, 2 divided by 9 = 0.222... x 100 = 22.2 therefore 7/2 = 22.2%. Unfortunately if a bookie works out a 5 horse race believing each horse to have the same chance (20%) he will not offer 4/1. He adds his percentage profit and offers early prices of 7/2 about each runner, working to 111%. (If there is little competition with few bookmakers betting on the outcome he may get away with 100/30 all runners). If you agree with the bookie there is no bet. If however, you believe one has a better than 22% (7/2) then that is the bet. Every horse / outcome should have a price to take. If you believe: A) has a 35% (15/8) chance B) 25% (3/1) C) 20% (4/1) D) 13% (13/2) E) 7% (13/1) All 5 prices added = 100%. And the best prices available are: A 13/8, B 11/4, C 100/30, D 6/1 and E 16/1. Then the bet to have is E, despite kowing it has the worst chance of winning. Because if you win 7% of your bets at 16/1 you will show a profit. All of the others would show a loss. (The prices in brackets above are the prices to beat for each horse). If you want an inacuracy rate it may be best to work your "book" out to 95 or even 90%. This also cuts down on the number of bets. Here is the Table Of Odds And Chances. Evens 50% 21/20 48.8% 11/10 47.6% 6/5 45.5% 5/4 44.4% 11/8 42.1% 6/4 40% 13/8 38.1% 7/4 36.4% 15/8 34.8% 2/1 33.3% 85/40 32% 9/4 30.8% 5/2 28.6% 11/4 26.7% 3/1 25% 100/30 23.1% 7/2 22.2% 4/1 20% 9/2 18.2% 5/1 16.7% 6/1 14.3% 13/2 13.3% 7/1 12.5% 15/2 11.7% 8/1 11.1% 17/2 10.5% 9/1 10% 10/1 9.1% 11/1 8.3% 12/1 7.7% 13/1 7.1% 14/1 6.7% 15/1 6.2% 16/1 5.9% 18/1 5.3% 20/1 4.8% 22/1 4.3% 25/1 3.8% 28/1 3.4% 33/1 3% 40/1 2.4% 50/1 2% 66/1 1.5% 100/1 1% 150/1 0.67% 200/1 0.5% 250/1 0.4% 500/1 0.2% 1000/1 0.1% To calculate odds on chances subtract the odds equivalent odds against chance from 100. e.g. 1/3 = 100% - 25% (3/1) = 75%. So 1/3 = 75%. With exchange prices the commission should be taken into account. Any selection a punter believes has a 42% chance of winning should only be backed at BETTER than 11/8. 12.5% 7/1, 6% 16/1 and 3% 33/1. As I said every horse has its price. An 11/8 chance has a true value of 42.2%. Of course nobody can say if a price is definately value or not value (should it be a 42%, 40% or 25%) it is only their opinion. But anyone thinking it is impossible to work out percentages sould realise bookmakers (their odds compilers) do it all the time to calculate their early prices. If they can do it so can we by studying form. I have gone over old ground. Sorry if this seems obvious or patronising, I have tried to do it in a way everyone can understand. It is though something that lots of punters still do not understand, probably because the betting media do not explain or publicise it. Any questions please ask.

[Sgt.Sunshine]

Re: Table Of Odds And Chances Isn't this stating the obvious? What am I missing here?