Couple of ELO-related question

[London_Calling]

I have an ELO value for each team, one for Home, another for Away – taking the Premiership as an example, that’s effectively 40 distinct identities. Using those ratings - together with the match final score - I want to develop a couple of indicators, one indicator might be ‘Goal Penetration’, another ‘Defencer’. In other words, I want a value that takes into account the ability to score, but do so within the context of the relative quality of the opposition (relative to the teams in that particular league) - the ELO thing. Example: as a home side, Middlesboro might be rated at 29.5 this week, as an away side Blackburn are rated at 21.3. Boro win 2-1. Maths: Boro’s Penetration score = 2 x 21.3 = 42.6 Blackburn’s Penetration score: 1 x 29.5 = 29.5 Simple, probably too simple – fwiw, I won’t trouble you with the corners, shots on and shots off, etc as all that’s incidental here. Two questions: One: What other way could I treat those raw ELO numbers in order to derive a credible value for ‘Goal Penetration’?, and Two: Can you think of a way to use the ELO ratings to determine an ‘Defencer’ value i.e. not conceding?

[AndyR]

Re: Couple of ELO-related question You need to consider the difference in the rating between the two sides, not the absolute values for an ELO system to work. You could equate the difference to an estimated goal difference, and then add/take it away from the values of your teams in the ELO rankings.