DC Posted August 20, 2007 Share Posted August 20, 2007 One of my usual weekend highlights is to sit in front of the box on a Saturday with a few beers watching the goals go in with Jeff. :) I usually do some sort of mini acca just to get through the afternoon and it's usually an over 2.5 treble or something similar so I thought I'd come up with a proper set of rules this season and opt for the over 2.5 five-fold for a bit of fun to brighten up the Saturday. I'm not really going to mind if it doesn't work but it'll fun trying. I've not back-tested or proofed this but I am going live with it just for the hell of it with the theory that a winning bet will pay at least 16-1 so I 'only' need to land a couple of acca's throughout the year to break even. I'm only going to concentrate on the English leagues and some bets may roll over to the Sunday. I'm gonna keep the rules nice and simple and to be honest it's how I'd start to come up with a short list for any +2.5 bet really. Football365 is a great site to use for stats and they provide average goals scored (last 5 home/away) and average goals conceded (last 5 home/away) for all leagues that I need. Simply print off the list of fixtures for the week ahead and write down next to each team the sum of the AGS and AGC for each team. eg. Barnsley play Plmouth next Saturday: Barnsley lost their one and only home game 4-1 so they get a score of 5. (AGS 4 + AGC 1) Plymouth won their away game 3-2 and score 5 too. (AGS 3 AGC 2) A total score of 10. Obviously as the season has only just started this may not be a true reflection of the likelyhood of goals as results need to settle down and proper averages need to develop but ... I'm itching to start!! Do this for all games in England and pick the top 5 total scores. Any ties, go for the away team that has the highest AGC (Thank you Top Savings). If you can't split them after this toss a coin. If you can't find a coin, you shouldn't be betting!! I'll try and post all picks by Friday night so we all know who the five teams are come Saturday! As always wish me luck! DC :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munki Posted August 20, 2007 Share Posted August 20, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Best of luck Danny :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted August 20, 2007 Share Posted August 20, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System One of my usual weekend highlights is to sit in front of the box on a Saturday with a few beers watching the goals go in with Jeff. :) I usually do some sort of mini acca just to get through the afternoon and it's usually an over 2.5 treble or something similar so I thought I'd come up with a proper set of rules this season and opt for the over 2.5 five-fold for a bit of fun to brighten up the Saturday. I'm not really going to mind if it doesn't work but it'll fun trying. I've not back-tested or proofed this but I am going live with it just for the hell of it with the theory that a winning bet will pay at least 16-1 so I 'only' need to land a couple of acca's throughout the year to break even. I'm only going to concentrate on the English leagues and some bets may roll over to the Sunday. I'm gonna keep the rules nice and simple and to be honest it's how I'd start to come up with a short list for any +2.5 bet really. Football365 is a great site to use for stats and they provide average goals scored (last 5 home/away) and average goals conceded (last 5 home/away) for all leagues that I need. Simply print off the list of fixtures for the week ahead and write down next to each team the sum of the AGS and AGC for each team. eg. Barnsley play Plmouth next Saturday: Barnsley lost their one and only home game 4-1 so they get a score of 5. (AGS 4 + AGC 1) Plymouth won their away game 3-2 and score 5 too. (AGS 3 AGC 2) A total score of 10. Obviously as the season has only just started this may not be a true reflection of the likelyhood of goals as results need to settle down and proper averages need to develop but ... I'm itching to start!! Do this for all games in England and pick the top 5 total scores. Any ties, go for the highest odds on Bet365. If you can't split them after this toss a coin. If you can't find a coin, you shouldn't be betting!! I'll try and post all picks by Friday night so we all know who the five teams are come Saturday! As always wish me luck! DC :hope I like it Dan. And the pun with the coin.:lol All the best with this mate.:ok will be popping in of friday to see the slections. Also what sites will take the bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted August 20, 2007 Share Posted August 20, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Sounds interesting. You been able to back test it at all? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted August 20, 2007 Share Posted August 20, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Danny, I've always found that the total recent goals conceded by the away team is a good stat for over 2.5 bets. most of my under and over systems have been started with this as the corner stone of the analysis. therefore, based on your 1 game of form, i would suggest S.Wed is the more likely to go over, but obviously as the season progresses you'll be able to tell which teams are CONSISTENTLY conceding and scoring ;) all the breast. TS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Cheers Mr Savings, sounds like a Top idea. When trying to select teams that are matched on points, go for the away team who has conceded the most goals on average. Nice and simple so I'll go with it. :ok Mcgin, no mate, no backtesting whatsoever, although as I said it's a very similar method to how I used to find +2.5 bets and I'm confident it'll work - somewhere in this place I made some money doing one bet a week but covering 1-1. You'll have to look round the systems pages to see how it did. Of course selecting five games and expecting them all to come in is a big ask, but it's a bit of fun and I think I'll land at least one hit during the season. I will also post up the banker +2.5 of the week ... :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 24, 2007 Author Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Chelsea v Portsmouth +2.5 @ 1.80 Derby v Birmingham +2.5 @ 2.30 Barnsley v Plymouth +2.5 @ 2.00 Ipswich v Crystal Palace +2.5 @ 2.00 Charlton v Sheffield Weds +2.5 @ 1.80 1 x £5.00 fivefold @ 31.36 :hope (odds with Bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted August 24, 2007 Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System :hope For tomorrow DC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 24, 2007 Author Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Thanks Kev, are you coming in with me for the hell of it??...it'll be a laugh mate!! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jprzybysz Posted August 24, 2007 Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Looks good mate, I'll hop on using your data. From your chosen 5 at the top, I'll stick a quid each on the fourfolds and one on the five to make tomorrow a bit more interesting. What I usually do is pick five draws out and bet on trebles upwards, and usually look for low scoring teams. Therefore I'm looking at the bottom end of your data, and am going to choose the bottom five excluding the united game (for some reason, i don't like including prem games in!) not trying to hijack your thread or anything but good luck and i'll be keeping a close eye on your picks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 24, 2007 Author Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System :welcome jprzybysz!! jump on the data that's fine mate, just remember there's not much data to go off at this stage in the season!! good luck with your ideas, sound good to me!! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted August 24, 2007 Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Interesting thread and ideas. Good luck all involved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jprzybysz Posted August 24, 2007 Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System :welcome jprzybysz!! jump on the data that's fine mate, just remember there's not much data to go off at this stage in the season!! good luck with your ideas, sound good to me!! :ok yeah i keep the stakes low early on, but cheers :) and again good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 26, 2007 Author Share Posted August 26, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Chelsea v Portsmouth +2.5 @ 1.80 lost 1-0 Derby v Birmingham +2.5 @ 2.30 WON 1-2 Barnsley v Plymouth +2.5 @ 2.00 WON 3-2 Ipswich v Crystal Palace +2.5 @ 2.00 play today Charlton v Sheffield Weds +2.5 @ 1.80 WON 3-2 Positives to take from yesterday, 3 from the 4 selections went over 2.5 goals including Sheffield Weds which I was pleased about (thanks to Top Savings rule idea). Also the top rated Barnsley game went over too. I got a good run for my money it was just a shame about the Chelsea game or I'd be 1 leg away from victory! Ngeatives, the bottom 5 games all went over 2.5 as well which doesn't give me much encouragement at this stage!! Once more data is obtained I'm hoping fixtures higher up the table will prove more likely to go over 2.5 than those lower down. Cheering on the Ipswich game now for one of jprzybysz's fourfolds :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 27, 2007 Author Share Posted August 27, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System 3 / 5 this week with the banker winning @ evens. More fun to be had next weekend folks....:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted August 27, 2007 Share Posted August 27, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System 60% strike rate with average winning odds of 2.03 is pretty good. Do you not think its worth doing this using level stakes instead of an accumulator? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 31, 2007 Author Share Posted August 31, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Yes Barrhead that's a possibilty but it would mean more outlay for me. I'm after a simple system that pays out one big return for small stakes. Here is the table for this weekend: Home AGS AGC Score Away AGS AGC Score Total Points ROCHDALE 1.00 2.00 3.00 MKD 3.00 3.00 6.00 9.00 MACCLESFIELD 3.00 3.00 6.00 DARLINGTON 3.00 0.00 3.00 9.00 BRIGHTON 2.00 1.00 3.00 SOUTHEND 1.00 4.00 5.00 8.00 LEEDS 4.00 1.00 5.00 LUTON 1.00 2.00 3.00 8.00 DAGENHAM 2.00 2.00 4.00 LINCOLN 3.00 1.00 4.00 8.00 BORO 1.50 2.00 3.50 BIRMINGHAM 2.00 2.00 4.00 7.50 CRYSTAL PALACE 2.00 2.00 4.00 CHARLTON 1.00 2.00 3.00 7.00 STOKE 2.00 1.00 3.00 WOLVES 3.00 1.00 4.00 7.00 ACCRINGTON 0.00 3.00 3.00 PETERBORO 1.00 3.00 4.00 7.00 ROTHERHAM 3.00 1.00 4.00 CHESTER 2.00 1.00 3.00 7.00 BOLTON 2.00 1.50 3.50 EVERTON 1.50 1.00 2.50 6.00 SHEFFIELD WEDS 1.00 3.00 4.00 BRISTOL CITY 1.00 1.00 2.00 6.00 COLCHESTER 2.00 2.00 4.00 BURNLEY 0.00 2.00 2.00 6.00 PLYMOUTH 1.00 1.00 2.00 LEICESTER 2.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 WBA 2.00 0.00 2.00 BARNSLEY 2.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 CHESTERFIELD 1.00 1.00 2.00 WYCOMBE 2.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 MANSFIELD 1.00 3.00 4.00 STOCKPORT 1.00 1.00 2.00 6.00 WREXHAM 2.00 1.00 3.00 HEREFORD 2.00 1.00 3.00 6.00 ASTON VILLA 1.50 1.50 3.00 CHELSEA 1.50 1.00 2.50 5.50 NORWICH 2.00 1.00 3.00 CARDIFF 2.00 0.00 2.00 5.00 QPR 0.00 2.00 2.00 SOUTHAMPTON 1.00 2.00 3.00 5.00 SWINDON 2.00 1.00 3.00 CREWE 1.00 1.00 2.00 5.00 NOTTS COUNTY 1.00 1.00 2.00 MORECAMBE 1.00 2.00 3.00 5.00 LIVERPOOL 1.00 1.00 2.00 DERBY 0.00 2.50 2.50 4.50 ARSENAL 1.50 0.50 2.00 PORTSMOUTH 1.00 1.50 2.50 4.50 FULHAM 1.50 1.50 3.00 SPURS 0.00 1.00 1.00 4.00 MAN UTD 0.50 0.00 0.50 SUNDERLAND 1.00 2.50 3.50 4.00 COVENTRY 1.00 1.00 2.00 PRESTON 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.00 BLACKPOOL 1.00 1.00 2.00 HULL 1.00 1.00 2.00 4.00 HARTLEPOOL 2.00 1.00 3.00 OLDHAM 0.00 1.00 1.00 4.00 LEYTON ORIENT 1.00 0.00 1.00 NORTHAMPTON 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 BARNET 1.00 2.00 3.00 BRADFORD 0.00 1.00 1.00 4.00 BURY 1.00 1.00 2.00 BRENTFORD 1.00 1.00 2.00 4.00 BLACKBURN 1.00 1.00 2.00 MAN CITY 1.00 0.50 1.50 3.50 READING 1.00 1.00 2.00 WEST HAM 1.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 SCUNTHORPE 2.00 0.00 2.00 SHEFF UTD 0.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 WATFORD 1.00 0.00 1.00 IPSWICH 1.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 GILLINGHAM 0.00 2.00 2.00 WALSALL 0.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 SWANSEA 0.00 0.00 0.00 DONCASTER 1.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 YEOVIL 1.00 0.00 1.00 TRANMERE 2.00 0.00 2.00 3.00 SHREWSBURY 1.00 0.00 1.00 GRIMSBY 1.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 NEWCASTLE 0.00 0.00 0.00 WIGAN 1.00 1.50 2.50 2.50 BOURNEMOUTH 0.00 1.00 1.00 PORT VALE 0.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 BRISTOL ROVERS 1.00 1.00 2.00 NOTTINGHAM 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 CARLISLE 1.00 0.00 1.00 CHELTENHAM 0.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 MILLWALL 1.00 0.00 1.00 HUDDERSFIELD 1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 So a 5-fold on Rochdale (BANKER), Macclesfield, Brighton, Leeds and Dagenham. Odds to follow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 1, 2007 Author Share Posted September 1, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Rochdale @1.90 Leeds @1.90 Brighton @2.025 Dag & Red @1.875 Macclesfield @2.0 Roughly 26-1 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 2, 2007 Author Share Posted September 2, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Rochdale 3-2 :ok Leeds 1-0 Brighton 3-2 :ok Dagenham 1-0 Macclesfield 0-0 2 / 5 :$ Poor set of results and the accumulator failed again. However, the top rated went over 2.5 goals again at a good price :ok Acca's 0 / 2 -2 pts level stakes Top-rated win singles 2 / 2 +1.90pts level stakes (Barnsley 2.00, Rochdale 1.90) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 14, 2007 Author Share Posted September 14, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted September 14, 2007 Share Posted September 14, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System :hope For tomorrow Dan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 15, 2007 Author Share Posted September 15, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Thanks Kev! Brentford 1.85 (BANKER) Derby 2.00 (Monday) Barnsley 1.925 Mansfield 1.90 (early kick off) Oldham 1.95 1 x £5 Five fold @ 26.38 ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 15, 2007 Author Share Posted September 15, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Well that's the first one in nice and early :) Mansfield 1 Chesterfield 2 HT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 16, 2007 Author Share Posted September 16, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Brentford 1.85 (BANKER) 0-3 :ok Derby 2.00 (Monday) N/A Barnsley 1.925 2-0 :$ Mansfield 1.90 (early kick off) 1-3 :) Oldham 1.95 0-1 :$ Acca's 0 / 3 -3 pts level stakes Top-rated win singles 3 / 3 +3.75pts level stakes (Barnsley 2.00, Rochdale 1.90, Brentford 1.85) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Derby 2.00 (Monday) N/A Think this could be worth a single tonight DC.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iwasgoing2backthat1 Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Brentford 1.85 (BANKER) 0-2 :$ Derby 2.00 (Monday) N/A Barnsley 1.925 2-0 :$ Mansfield 1.90 (early kick off) 1-3 :) Oldham 1.95 0-1 :$ Even the banker only finished with 2 goals this week.... ah well, there's always next week!! Acca's 0 / 3 -3 pts level stakes Top-rated win singles 2 / 3 +0.90pts level stakes (Barnsley 2.00, Rochdale 1.90) Banker won danny:ok was mine too Brentford0-3 (HT 0-1) Milton Keynes DonsAndrews 24 Andrews 79 Johnson 90 im back on overs betting,doing quite well at the momment so may well start putting up my bets again, but dont always have time to get involved on here as much as other people due to me working shifts . I have DERBY down as an over tonight and SOUTHAMPTON on weds night ticks all the right boxes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unbelievable Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Sounds interesting Danny. I'm gonna try something similar including different leagues for wider choice. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 20, 2007 Author Share Posted September 20, 2007 Re: The Stelling Super Soccer Saturday System Banker won danny:ok was mine too Brentford0-3 (HT 0-1) Milton Keynes DonsAndrews 24 Andrews 79 Johnson 90 im back on overs betting,doing quite well at the momment so may well start putting up my bets again, but dont always have time to get involved on here as much as other people due to me working shifts . I have DERBY down as an over tonight and SOUTHAMPTON on weds night ticks all the right boxes. Knew I was a bit sloshed on Saturday but not that out of it to miss a full time score :lol:lol:lol I've changed the thread now to 3 / 3 bankers haha :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 21, 2007 Author Share Posted September 21, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.