TazaD Posted June 10, 2007 Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) That's not talking me out of it, ads!! :D:D Na...talked myself out of it in the end. Will stick to the totals, and hope it's just a low scoring weekend ;) under 177.5 (2.90), 178-197 (3.00) pays 1.93 for the under 177 with the saver, and that looks nice to me. Like I said, word out of the Richmond camp is thta it will be a very defensive game. Freo have had just 3 games all season over 197...one game (Port) had just 51 shots!...the Essendon game had just 54, and Melbourne at the MCG they kicked 21.11... ...so only VERY good kicking has seen high scoring Freo games. 5 of the 10 have been under 177....inc. 4 of 5 at home. Just one of the last 10 meetings has been over 197...5 under 177. Decent odds for the under, and won't be too unhappy with $ back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted June 10, 2007 Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Well, I strongly considered jumping straight on to Lasseters Monday when they opened Rich at +32.5. They're out to 5.70 for the win and I have them a 4.50 chance and will probably pull the trigger. Will be no surprise for Wallace to come up with something to get Freo out of usual comfort zone. Connolly has talked up not to take Rich lightly, which often means the players will come out complacent? ;) Borderline taking 2.30 Kangas but decided to stay out. Danger situation for Kangas although Saints with morale issues. Kangas a cert now, I suppose :lol. Just check the score ... hmm! (won't blow it for those on delay though ;)) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted June 10, 2007 Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) To go on ... another great game to watch! Can't believe (well, I can :eyes) there's people who wouldn't enjoy seeing how good the crows were in shutting down the man, etc, getting Geel at 6's & 7's and how the cats worked through that. Luckily got the chocolates too :). Crows unlucky with the bench. Richmond at an interesting 2.04 -30.5 Pinnacle (might have some, wait for teams though), 1.93 +31.5 Lasseters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted June 10, 2007 Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Richmond at an interesting 2.04 -30.5 Pinnacle (might have some' date= wait for teams though) ... ... which is very brave of me, don't you think? :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted June 10, 2007 Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Cook out for Walker. Tivendale out for Hughes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Loki- Posted June 10, 2007 Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) I am taking the over 188.5. Richmond and Freo are capable of kicking goals and surely Richmond will be up for this game. Freo have shown signs of goal scoring abilities in the last couple of games. If Richmond are to stand a chance in this, they'll have to score against Freo, because they will at Subiaco. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted June 10, 2007 Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) ... which is very brave of me' date=' don't you think? :lol[/quote'] Bloody stupid of me not to go with my original thoughts.... :wall :wall Go Tiges! (Go the under!) :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted June 10, 2007 Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) I still think Richmond are going well enough. I'd make Freo only the 9/10 fave as it stands so value on Richmond In-run IMO (2.90 Eskander, +10.5 bet365 worth a thought). Got some 6.00 Tigers on the death, although I held back a bit for some In-run.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted June 10, 2007 Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Looks like Freo will be too strong unless tigers can draw strength from latest near misses. The 'cap should be ok, hopefully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted June 10, 2007 Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Fremantle home now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted June 10, 2007 Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Overall Standings # Team P W L D For Agt % Pts 1 Geelong 11 8 3 0 1273 839 151.7 32 2 West Coast 11 8 3 0 1024 813 126 32 3 Hawthorn 11 7 4 0 977 865 112.9 28 4 Collingwood 10* 7 3 0 963 892 108 28 5 Essendon 11 7 4 0 1106 1036 106.8 28 6 Kangaroos 11 7 4 0 1047 1037 101 28 7 Sydney 11 6 5 0 942 828 113.8 24 8 Adelaide 11 6 5 0 889 831 107 24 9 W.Bulldogs 11 6 5 0 1082 1107 97.74 24 10 Port Adelaide 11 6 5 0 1001 1035 96.71 24 11 Fremantle 11 5 6 0 1040 1047 99.33 20 12 Brisbane 11 4 6 1 923 991 93.14 18 13 Carlton 11 4 7 0 1159 1344 86.24 16 14 St Kilda 11 4 7 0 814 956 85.15 16 15 Melbourne 10* 1 9 0 769 1040 73.94 4 16 Richmond 11 0 10 1 925 1273 72.66 2 * Still to Play Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted June 10, 2007 Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Ahhh Carlton back above St Kilda on the ladder, while Collingwood and Essendon both in the top 5 and there are 6 Victorian teams in the top 9. Things are slowly but surely starting to come back to normal :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted June 10, 2007 Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Carlton 2 wins off the 8 :dude BANG!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted June 10, 2007 Author Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Carlton 2 wins off the 8 :dude BANG!! True! That's why the percentage was important last night, they needed to keep hammering Port. Two wins off the eight, one win off losing a priority draft pick :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koi_saisei Posted June 10, 2007 Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Mmm, it is a close season so far. Predictions at this point would be Freemantle replacing Essendon in the top 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted June 10, 2007 Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) True! That's why the percentage was important last night, they needed to keep hammering Port. Two wins off the eight, one win off losing a priority draft pick :rollin Carlton have lost the priority draft pick now, there goes Matt Kreuzer :sad On the other hand, we look so iresistable at the moment that i dont think we need any more topping up. :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted June 11, 2007 Share Posted June 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Just a couple of numbers to think about beofre getting too messy you blokes... Carlton 31 shots...Port 32 Carlton 53 I50's...Port 54 Carlton 31 clearances, Port 40 Carlton 109 contested possies, Port 113 Basically they won because they kicked straight (81%!) and made less mistakes (38 clangers to 53). As I eluded to earlier, if Hawthorn are 1.60+ on Friday then I'll be the one getting all worked up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted June 11, 2007 Share Posted June 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Just a couple of numbers to think about beofre getting too messy you blokes... Carlton 31 shots...Port 32 Carlton 53 I50's...Port 54 Carlton 31 clearances, Port 40 Carlton 109 contested possies, Port 113 Basically they won because they kicked straight (81%!) and made less mistakes (38 clangers to 53). As I eluded to earlier, if Hawthorn are 1.60+ on Friday then I'll be the one getting all worked up! Heres another stat: Carlton 141 - Port Adelaide 102 :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted June 11, 2007 Share Posted June 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Just a couple of numbers to think about beofre getting too messy you blokes... Carlton 31 shots...Port 32 Carlton 53 I50's...Port 54 Carlton 31 clearances, Port 40 Carlton 109 contested possies, Port 113 Basically they won because they kicked straight (81%!) and made less mistakes (38 clangers to 53). As I eluded to earlier, if Hawthorn are 1.60+ on Friday then I'll be the one getting all worked up! Ok, I'd be the first to admit it if we got a "lucky win" or didn't deserve it, and Taza I know you like your stats (so do I) and you do well with them, but on this occasion it's not right... The scoreline flatters Port here - if we had the killer instinct (and who can blame Carlton for not having it, having won about 6 of their last 50 matches), then we'd have flogged them by 100 on Saturday. Walker, Carrazo and Murphy ran riot, we absolutely battered them and they were never in the game. Read into the stats what you like, but I was there and Port never even got close mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted June 11, 2007 Author Share Posted June 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Heres another stat: Carlton 141 - Port Adelaide 102 :drums A Carlton supporter with a sense of humour :rollin Not bad! :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted June 11, 2007 Share Posted June 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Well, feel free to jump on the "ever improving" Blues next week ;) I'd hate to see "supporters vision" cloud any $ making situations... Unlucky with the Tigers Ash...well, not so much unlucky but POORLY, POORLY coached. (Seem to be saying that alot about Wallace these days) (** Oh, and Glenn Jackovich commentating...but more on him later! :eyes ) Game plan had been solid I thought...Polak playing very well effectively loose across half back...Patterson/Jackson also helping out...then using their pace advantage to run and move the ball forward. ...'til 3/4 time when master Terry decided to move Polak forward??!! (**) Richmond were never going to win a one-on-one shoot-out...EVER!!! I mean, they were winning in the middle anyway...but then at one end you've got McPharlin blanketing Richo, and now Polak being picked up by Johnson...who even if he does get it is a terrible shot for goal... ...now down the other you have Raines and Bowden both one out against Tarrant and Pavlich, both with distinct size (and ability, let's be fair!) advantages...and both imo, had been unlucky all game as they could have easily had a couple of free's each for holding in previous 1-1 marking contests. Crazy!! ** ...a move that Jockovich applauded at the time!!! He said something like, "Richmond have been competative all game, but now they need to win the game" er, Glenn, they had been winning all game by doing exactly what they were doing!!!! :wall ...now they effectively throw away the one advantage they had and turn it into a shoot-out that only one team could win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted June 11, 2007 Author Share Posted June 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Have to agree with you Jeffers on the score/stats flattering Port Jeffers. I watched 70% of the game and Port were not in the hunt. They were lazy, second to the contest, and when game was up for grabs Carlton annihilated them in every facet of the game. The Gurgoynes were heratless, didnt run, didnt chase (they had a crack when game was over). The game was well and truly over in the third quarter and Carlton were never in doubt, and I wouldn't read anything into Ports inside 50 stats or anything else, they were pathetic. As for contested possessions, don't remember seeing Port get many at all, they were never in the contest. Hawthorn are a different proposition to Port though, though they are Franklin focused. Blues defence and midfield will be up against it against the Hawks. Whenever Blues have played Top 6 side they have faltered. Now move over to the Adelaide/Geelong game and that was pressure from start to finish. I watched it with my missus (Crows) and Mum(Geelong) and said to them late in first quarter that even tho it is ugly, it will open up cos they cant play like this for four quarters. But they did play ugly for four quarters, althought as a pressure spectacle it was tough stuff. Both my missus and Mum thought it was crap to watch, and tend to agree, but the intensity couldn't be faltered, and might be a defining game for the Cats. Geelong have won twice in the one season in Adelaide, last team to do that was the mighty black and white in 2002. The Cats look like the real deal, they can play free flowing footy, and they can play tough and hard. And they have won something like 31 of 44 quarters now, an imposing stats. Move over West Coast, there is a new kid in town. As for the Pies today. I have a healthy respect for Melbourne, but enjoyed it when Taza said the Pies playing better this year and should win, always a good sign when Taza has given the go ahead. Either way, Pies will be Top 6 going to the break, then we face Sydney away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted June 11, 2007 Share Posted June 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) How's the weather look over there, Melbournites? 1.90 for over 172 looks very generous...but seeing chance of showers, even hail on the forecast. No rain on radar... Would love some first hand info thanks gang. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted June 11, 2007 Share Posted June 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) How's the weather look over there, Melbournites? 1.90 for over 172 looks very generous...but seeing chance of showers, even hail on the forecast. No rain on radar... Would love some first hand info thanks gang. Perfect conditions here in Ballarat which is about an hour away from Melbourne. We get pretty much the same weather so expect it to be a fine day. The ground may be a bit damp making ground level conditions a little slippery, but that should be pretty much dried up before first bounce. May be a chance for some light showers later on, but thats probably after the game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted June 11, 2007 Share Posted June 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) These Queens Birthday games between the Pies & Dees have been very lopsided in recent years. The average winning margin of the winning team has been exactly 50 points with Melbourne winning 4 and Collingwood 3. Anyone looking to bet on the Under/Over margins be careful :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted June 11, 2007 Share Posted June 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Unlucky with the Tigers Ash...well, not so much unlucky but POORLY, POORLY coached. (Seem to be saying that alot about Wallace these days) (** Oh, and Glenn Jackovich commentating...but more on him later! :eyes ) ... Down a couple on the bench didn't help either. The run did dry up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted June 11, 2007 Share Posted June 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Yze out for Holland. Rhyce Shaw out for first gamer Danny Stanley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted June 11, 2007 Share Posted June 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) These Queens Birthday games between the Pies & Dees have been very lopsided in recent years. The average winning margin of the winning team has been exactly 50 points with Melbourne winning 4 and Collingwood 3. Anyone looking to bet on the Under/Over margins be careful :ok Good point ads...7 of the last 10 meetings have been over 40+ point results! Thanks for the weather...It doesn't ever seem to rain heavily there...and wind not really a factor at the 'G. 8 of last 10 meetings over 172 @ 201. Collingwood gone under that number 4 times this year...games @ Adelaide and WC...Port in the wet and Kangas who kicked 10.19. Melbourne remarkably similar...low scorers v. Crows, Geelong and St. K. . all strong defensive teams...Port was a combined 19.33 kicking! and Kangas kicked 10.19 against them too. Collingwood started with a decent defense, but Clement missing has hurt...Dogs had 35 shots, Freo 29 in 2 of last 3 games... ...in fact, in their last 6 games, only the Adelaide game has seen less than 50 shots...48 in that game and an av of 58.8 in the rest!! My stats show that 175 should be scored at a minimum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punto Banco Posted June 11, 2007 Share Posted June 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Just taking a small interest bet... either team over 39.5 @ 3.5 looks like a possiblility... Melbourne have something to prove and will be high on motivation... really this could be a tight 1... and if I was having a serious bet it may be to that effect... but as someone mentioned a high winning margin average i thought y not.... gl all....enjoy the game...:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koi_saisei Posted June 11, 2007 Share Posted June 11, 2007 Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Geelong have won twice in the one season in Adelaide, last team to do that was the mighty black and white in 2002. The Cats look like the real deal, they can play free flowing footy, and they can play tough and hard. And they have won something like 31 of 44 quarters now, an imposing stats. Move over West Coast, there is a new kid in town. Beware the mid-year premiers... there is often teams peaking too early. West Coast hit a bad patch of form this time last year too. They have huge inclusions coming up in the next 5 weeks. I still think West Coast is above Geelong. Geelong are looking imposing though :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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