Horsey price movements

[AlanDB]

Hello everyone The market volatility we see in horse racing seems to me almost unique to the sport. It isn't particularly unusual to see a horse double or half in price before the off. This leads me on to certain ways in which this could be exploited and a couple of questions which those of you with more experience may be able to answer :) 1. In general do the odds of the favourite tend to shorten? This would to me seem the general consensus, although by no means black and white. I have dabbled with trading the exchange markets before the off and it seemed that favourites priced under evens often tended to get shorter, although I have no data to confirm this. Perhaps a favourites price is just as likely to drift as to steam, but if there were some stats available, it may provide a trading opportunity. 2. Is there any value to be achieved betting on steamers or drifters? With the degree of price movements possible within the markets, it would seem that this area has huge potential. It is quite possible that in a horse race the same horse could be backed at odds of 2.0 or 4.0 depending when you placed your bet. Now obviously 4.0 is value compared to 2.0, but this does not necessarily mean that 2.0 is bad value or that 4.0 is good value - just a comparitive measure between the 2. I think I remember reading that steamers only win 3% more often that drifters. This would suggest that backing steamers holds little value, but it does not automatically follow that backing drifters represents value. From this, if you consider the following statements: Backing drifters to win Backing drifters to place Laying drifters to win Laying drifters to place Backing steamers to win Backing steamers to place Laying steamers to win Laying steamers to place There may be value to be found in one of the above, but surely not all of the above as some are mutually exclusive. At the same time, none of them may prove profitable. I did have a quick look at some of the data from Betfair, but to be honest there's so much of it and it would be a lot of hard work and computer know-how to get anything meaningful from it :loon I hope I've explained myself well here. Perhaps it will provoke some discussion even if no-one understands what I'm on about :unsure

[aliando]

Re: Horsey price movements good luck mate! have a look at this thread also http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=33777&highlight=drifters