Boxing 07/04/07

[mowgli77]

Millennium Stadium - Cardiff - Wales Joe Calzaghe v Peter Manfredo Jr (WBO super middleweight) Enzo Maccarinelli v Bobby Gunn (WBO cruiserweight) Mehrdud Takaloo v Michael Jennings (WBU welterweight) Bradley Pryce v Thomas Awinbono (Commonwealth light middleweight) Gary Lockett v Lee Blundell (WBU middleweight) Previews, thoughts etc in here please. Boxing Preview – Joe Calzaghe V Peter Manfredo 07/04/07 When I first saw this fight I thought it was an exhibition match for charity, the reality TV fighter against the world class boxer and the odds available seem to suggest the bookies see it the same way, with only one outcome, that being a Calzaghe victory. Calzaghes odds vary from around 1-40 to 1-25 and Manfredo is between 8-1 and 12-1. I do not see Manfredo winning by any stretch of the imagination but there is little value at long odds on for a Calzaghe victory. Manfredo is an average fighter that failed to win a reality TV contest. He will have to face a world class opponent in an electric atmosphere and I don’t think he is up to the task. The only person that can beat Joe Calzaghe on Saturday is Joe Calzaghe. When he is motivated such as the Jeff Lacy fight he is world class, he has speed, power and accuracy and if that fight hadn’t been in a boxing ring he’d have been locked up for assault, he was devastating. It’s hard to see him getting too excited about this fight, he knows he just has to get the job done and it is more exposure for him if he does a good job on Manfredo. If we are looking for some value then surely we have to look at round betting or group round betting as even a Calzaghe KO is 2-5 on. I expect Calzaghe to get the job done somewhere in the middle of the fight and the unders/overs on rounds is set at 7.5 rounds, which seems about right. I expect Manfredo to soak up some shots but Joe’s class to tell in the middle of the fight if it goes that long with a stoppage or knockout being the outcome. Therefore looking at available odds I’d suggest the following: 10PTS – Calzaghe to win Rounds 7-9 with SkyBet (9-2) 5PTS – Calzaghe to win in Round 4 with Bet365 (16-1) 5PTS - Calzaghe to win in Round 5 with Bet365 (14-1) 5PTS – Calzaghe to win in Round 6 with Bet365 (14-1) 5PTS – Calzaghe to win in Round 7 with Totesport (12-1) There is a massive discrepancy in odds on round betting between the bookies with a prime example being Round 4 available at 6-1 with many bookmakers so the 16-1 with Bet365 is a standout price. I see the fight ending between rounds 4-7 so the group bet on Rounds 7-9 is a covering one in case the fight goes further. If it is over within the first 4 rounds then I apologise and that’s boxing for you and the match up will be exposed as the pointless, one-sided contest most see it as.