Bookings and Cards

[davidc]

PLEASE NOTE THIS SYSTEM IS UNTESTED - FOLLOW AT YOUR OWN PERIL! I'm going to try to run a system for finding over/under cards or booking points in the EPL. Rules for the system are as follows: OVER BETS: Only use referees with average cards points average of 8.0 or better. One team must have 4.0 or more booking points average. Other team must be in top 10 team bookings index. Bet on over cards or over total points or lay under points at Betfair. Only use referees who have officiated in 8 or more games. UNDER BETS: Only use referees with average cards points average of 7 or less. One team must have less than 3.0 booking points average. Other team must be in bottom 10 team bookings index. Bet on under cards or under total points or lay over points at Betfair. Only use referees who have officiated in 8 or more games. For reference purposes I will be using: Team Card Totals - http://www.4thegame.com/football-statistics/premiership/teambookings/ Referees Card Totals - http://www.4thegame.com/football-statistics/premiership/referees/ Referees Rota - http://www.bettingzone.co.uk/football/betting/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=betting/06/12/08/manual_105022.html I was unable to find a satisfactory site for both the above totals stats so I have used these two and then converted the stats based on 2 points for a yellow and 5 points for a red, which is the formula that Betfair use. As far as I am aware most bookies and exchanges only quote a bookings index on live games (Bet365 are an exception), so there may not be that many bets available. Starting bank will be 1000 points and bet stakes will be variable (depending on how much I can get on) but will normally be 50 points, although lays may go 1 or 2 pence over this. Updated stats will be posted regularly. Any input or questions will be welcome, particularly if you can find better stats sites which have averages already worked out.

[davidc]

Re: Bookings and Cards First bet: Wigan v Blackburn - Over 3.5 cards @ 1.66 @ Bet365. Wigan - average booking points 3.9 & 9th in booking points table. Blackburn - average booking points 5.25 & 1st in booking points table. Referee M Clattenburg - average booking points 7.71 & 4th in Referees booking points table. For Wigan Kevin Kilbane (4 yellows and 1 red) is available and should play although Paul Scharner (5 yellows) is injured ant will not play. For Blackburn Lucas Neill (6 yellow and 1 red) and Robbie Savage (7 yellows) are both available and should play.