Clotty's Cunning Corner Contraption...

[Clotty]

For the past several months, I've been consuming myself with betting information, trying to gain bigger edge's over the competition and, ultimately generate bigger profits. Due to having a friends in high places, I got the privilege of being given access to just about every system going and, while most of them are junk, I got some gems that have skyrocketed my profits. On top of this, I came into contact with some of the guys who make a living from betting - again, I learned a lot from that. Anyway, I've now decided to come out of my secret laboratory of ratings systems, betting strategies and trading softwares to try and pass on lots of what I've learned. One thing I have on my agenda is creating a freely available publication of what I've discovered one needs to do to have any chance of profiting from football betting - hopefully I can get this done soon after the new year and have it freely available for download for anyone who wants it (if the mods permit me to, that is). Anyway, in the mean time, I wanted to share an interesting trend I found and trial it in this thread. Using a modelling program I created, I'm hopinf to be able to generate probabilities for 1X2, over/under, correct score and asian handicap bets on football. It's still under construction. In the meantime, however, I can still use it to good effect with corner probabilities. I'm using some statistics to generate as accurate a figure I can for the average number of corners a game will have. Once that is done, I plug the average value in and use logit regression to calculate probabilities of the game have X amount of corners. I compared my predicted odds, with the predicted odds offered by Bet365 and what I found was pretty nifty :) . My predicted probabilities suggested that when Bet365 offered odds for over or under X amount of corners, they always offered bad value. However, if you be on their being exactly X amount of corners, you get good value. Sometimes Bet365 make this figures 11 corners, sometimes them make it 10 corners. From my studies, when betting on exactly 11 corners, you get some kind of value, but it's usually nothing to shout about. However, when they offer odds on over/under/exactly 10 you get much, much more value. For example, my predictions suggest the Fulham game on the weekend should have odds of 8.07, where Bet365 offer 8.5 I think the corners market, may be an area where Bet365 are a little lax on. 99.9% of people won't be betting on the exactly bet when it comes to corner, I think bet365 know this, so they push those over/under odds down, which consequently increases the exactly odds. I'll be testing on games where they are offering odds on their being exactly 10 corners. If this proves to be profitable, I'll look at odds for exactly 11 corners. I'll use a bank of 100 units and stake 2% of the bank on each selection. If anyone knows a bookmaker who offers more generous odds on this market, than Bet365 please let me know - it could make all the difference. I have tried oddschecker, but they don't have any info on this market. This might be well or it could die on its :moon , but it's definitely worth looking at, in my opinion. Here's to hoping this system makes some kind of profit :cheers - Joshua.

[Sgt.Sunshine]

Re: Clotty's Cunning Corner Contration... Sounds good Clotty, I'd be interested to read your "publication". How much backtesting of corner stats have you done (what's your sample size like?)