Game Form

[turnlux]

I have watched with interest at the different strategies used by this fantastic forum and it's users and felt that perhaps now i could share a strategy i have adapted slightly from a well used idea. :ok It's called the Game Form strategy, it works by giving teams points for their previous six results and then calculating the difference to predict a home win/away win or draw. I wil go in to further detail a bit more down the line on the points system i use. I would like to stress that at present no-one follows my selections until we have a bit more of an idea how the system holds-up. I will be using real money in my tests because i believe over time hopefully we will come to some consistent results. I shall use all the major european leagues, uefa cup and champions league games and also internationals. This may change at a later date but for now we'll go with that. I'll post my selections as early as possible and update the results asap. I'll open with a starting bank of £100 and each selection will be posted at 10 points, working to a £1 a point. Any suggestions or comments along the way would be greatly appreciated as i'm fairly new to this. even criticisms if there is something you feel i should be including but am not or something i should explain better. Well thanks alot. Lets hope I don't die on my arse.:hope

[aliando]

Re: Game Form :welcome to the forum and good luck with your system mate :hope

[turnlux]

Re: Game Form Thanks very much Aliando:ok Here is a bit more about how i make my selections. Using the h2h stats website, i look at teams last six games, home and away and score results the following way:- Home Win: 3 points Home Draw: 1 point Away Win: 5 points Away Draw: 2 points Home/Away Loss: 0 Points Then adding up the totals i subtract one teams score from another. a plus or minus score provides me with a home win or away win. If the scores are level then it's a draw. only scores with +5 and more for home teams and -5 or more for away teams qualify. anything closer than that makes the match to close to call and is best left alone. I've chosen 5 points for a away win and 2 points for a away draw because i believe, taking in to account factors such as home crowds, favoured ref decisions towards home teams etc, make it more difficult for away sides. All league games will use previous league games, cup games will only use previous cup games and internationals, whether they are competitive or friendlies will be decided the same way. Any comments or recommendations would be greatly appreciated as i'm always open to new ideas and suggestions. Hopefully will be able to post the first selections for wednesday nights games and go from there.;)

[turnlux]

Re: Game Form Having checked the matches for tomorrow night, the system has thrown up three selections. They are:- Espanyol v Austria Magna (+11) @ 1.36 Hapoel Tel Aviv v Mlada Bloeslav (+8) @ 2.04 Paris St.Germain v Panathinakos (-6) @ 7.8 The figures in the brackets represent the difference in previous result scores for both teams. + = home win and - = away win. I'm going to stake 10 points on each selection. Betfair are offering the best prices and i expect bets will be made with them most of the time. These are the first selections, so lets hope we have a good start. Results will be posted asap.:hope

[padman]

Re: Game Form Good luck. Like the idea - I think I may follow this. Paul

[turnlux]

Re: Game Form Well not the greatest start. But perhaps these uefa cup games are not the greatest guide, especially when most places have been settled and the possibility of weakened sides. Any how the results:- Espanyol v Austria Magna won 1-0:clap Hapoel Tel Aviv v Mlada Boleslav drew 1-1:wall Paris St Germain v Panathinakos lost 4-0:wall Start Bank:£100 Current Bank:£83.70 Wins:1 Losses:2 Strike Rate:33% Yield:-0.54% Profit/Loss:-£16.30 Something to maybe consider once we are a bit further down the road is raising the total points selection from -+5 to -+10 for selections to qualify. But for now we will continue as we are. Thursday 14th selections see's just two games:- Rangers v Partizan Belgrade @ 1.56 Parma v Osasuna @ 4.0 10 point stakes on rangers and parma both with betfair. fingers crossed we can start to turn profit shortly.:hope

[padman]

Re: Game Form Kinda agree with the uefa cup, as most of the teams tonight had nought to play for. ONWARDS and UPWARDS

[pinhofap]

Re: Game Form Cheers mate, I think your idea might be very good, but I definitely only use national league games. I think cup games just have too many variables to apply such ratings to them. Your staking plan need working, however, 10 pts per selection is way too agressive and you may have a winning system, but a losing run will wipe out. Backing at odds of 7.0 as you did with 10 pts is not a good idea. I personally use variable stakes so that my profit is always the same. I currently aim to win 3 pts per selection, and even so some people might consider that too agressive. I wish you the best, and don't consider my post as against you, I decided to post exactly because I liked the idea, if it was rubbish I wouldn't bother to try and provide some help. Good Luck Pinho

[turnlux]

Re: Game Form thanks alot pinhofap:ok . That was the kind of feedback I was hoping for, constructive critisicism. Have already made the bets for tonight's game. But i will definately give your suggestions some serious considerations. Nothing is set in stone, and i'm sure many things will be changed before i'm happy with this system. :clap

[turnlux]

Re: Game Form Another mixed bag again tonight. So here aare tonights results:- Rangers v Partizan Belgrade won 1-0:clap Parma v Osasuna lost 0-3:wall Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 79.30 Wins: 2 Losses: 3 Strike Rate: 40% Loss: -20.70 Yield: -0.41% I think pinhofap hit the nail on the head when suggesting to stick to league games only because their being to many variables to take in to account. So from now on we will disregard cup games. Having looked ahead to the weekends games i think the problem i'm going to have is that with a selection criteria for teams to only have + or - five point gap over their opponents, means i'm going to be left with plenty of choices to pick from. To combat this i'm going to trial a new selection criteria, Still working on game form, I will now only choose the top 4 or 5 (possibly less during mid-week games) matches with the highest game form rating. Also having seen the last two nights results coupled with pinhofap's comments, i agree the staking plan is too aggressive. This is one area I think will need to be looked at until i find something that fits. So again we'll trial pinhofap's variable staking plan to win 3pts per selection. Stick with me on this one boys we'll get there in the end. Friday 15th December's selection:- Standard Liege v Excelsior Mouscron (+9) [email protected] with betfair. If successful it will give us the required 3pts profit and hopefully start the turnaround. I feel we are maybe not to far away.:notworthy

[turnlux]

Re: Game Form Well the amendments to the strategy have started to payoff. Standard Liege v Excelsior Mouscron won 2-0:nana Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 82.40 Wins: 3 Losses:3 Strike Rate: 50% Loss: -17.60 Yield: -0.3% At last something to cheer. Now hopefully we can start to reduce our losses and boost our yield and current bank stats. These are the top four games selected for tomorrow:- Energie Cottbus v VFB Stuttgart(-14) [email protected] Reading(+12) v Blackburn [email protected] Sedan v Lille(-14) [email protected] Sporting Lisbon(+14) v Academica [email protected] Now we have altered a few of the parameters regarding selection and staking, hopefully we will go from strength to strength. All these selections have reasonable chances, so hopefully it'll be a prosperous day!:cheers

[aliando]

Re: Game Form one other aspect that may be worth looking at (but may involve a lot more work) is simply looking at and basing your bets on weekend matches - midweek matches seem to throw up slightly more 'strange' results (although i dont have any stats to back this up) might be worth keeping an ey on for future tweaking perhaps. hope your luck carries on with tonights luck mate!

[turnlux]

Re: Game Form cheers aliando.:ok It is definately something worth looking at, as i have said before, there will probably be lots more tweaking with this before i'm happy. On reflection the uefa cup games should have been totally dismissed as selections, although having done them, i know that they will not work. I think we will have to do some midweek league matches before we can dismiss them altogether, but it's something i'll definately monitor. As regards to last night, I totally missed the PSV/Heracles game for some reason, which definately would have qualified as a strong selection. PSV had 20+ in their favour and won 3-0:wall All of the prices for today's game were through betfair. Thanks for the comments. Keep em' coming:clap