Lay away system based on historical results

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Bookmakers take current team form too much into account when compiling their odds. Historical results seem to be undervalued in the odds. Is this assumption true or not? I will investigate this with a system which lays away teams based on the head to head results from the last 10 years. The rules for this system are: - Odds will be taken from betfair. - Starting bank is 100 points - Stake is 5.0 points per bet - Betfair commisson 5% so a winning bet will return 4.75 - A team will be laid if the betfair odd is lower then the fair odd. The fair odd is calculated as follows: matches played away divided by number of away wins. At least 5 h2h-matches have to be played during the last 10 years. - To avoid too much risk, the maximum odd I will lay is 5.0. So the maximum liability is 20 points (5x4) - The following competitions will be taken into account: Dutch Jupiler League, Dutch Eredivisie, Premier League,Primera Division, Bundesliga. If this system turns out to be a success I will include more competitions. I did not back test this system, we will just see what happens! My first selection is: Dutch Jupiler League (tonight): Lay Veendam (2/10) playing away against FC Eindhoven @2.26 Explanation: Veendam won only 2 matches out of last 10 against Eindhoven, the fair odd would be 5.0, so with 2.26 we have an edge!

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Re: Lay away system based on historical results #002: Lay Roda JC (1/10) away against Heerenveen @4.6