asc Posted December 8, 2006 Share Posted December 8, 2006 Bookmakers take current team form too much into account when compiling their odds. Historical results seem to be undervalued in the odds. Is this assumption true or not? I will investigate this with a system which lays away teams based on the head to head results from the last 10 years. The rules for this system are: - Odds will be taken from betfair. - Starting bank is 100 points - Stake is 5.0 points per bet - Betfair commisson 5% so a winning bet will return 4.75 - A team will be laid if the betfair odd is lower then the fair odd. The fair odd is calculated as follows: matches played away divided by number of away wins. At least 5 h2h-matches have to be played during the last 10 years. - To avoid too much risk, the maximum odd I will lay is 5.0. So the maximum liability is 20 points (5x4) - The following competitions will be taken into account: Dutch Jupiler League, Dutch Eredivisie, Premier League,Primera Division, Bundesliga. If this system turns out to be a success I will include more competitions. I did not back test this system, we will just see what happens! My first selection is: Dutch Jupiler League (tonight): Lay Veendam (2/10) playing away against FC Eindhoven @2.26 Explanation: Veendam won only 2 matches out of last 10 against Eindhoven, the fair odd would be 5.0, so with 2.26 we have an edge! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 8, 2006 Author Share Posted December 8, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results #002: Lay Roda JC (1/10) away against Heerenveen @4.6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 8, 2006 Author Share Posted December 8, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results #003: Lay Herta BSC (2/9) away against Leverkusen @3.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 8, 2006 Author Share Posted December 8, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results Results for tonight: #001: FC Eindhoven - Veendam (1/10) @2.26 1-2 -9.04 :wall #002: Heerenveen - Roda JC (1/10) @4.6 1-0 +4.75:nana #003: Leverkusen - Hertha BSC (2/9) @3.9 2-1 +4.75:nana Current bank: 100.46 Selections for tomorrow: #004: HSV - Nurnberg (0/5) @3.4 #005: Blackburn - Newcastle (1/8) @3.9 #006: Ajax - AZ (0/10) @3.85 (last victory for AZ: 18-10-1980!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 10, 2006 Author Share Posted December 10, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results Results: #004: HSV - Nurnberg (0/5) @3.4 0-0 +4.75:nana #005: Blackburn - Newcastle (1/8) @3.9 1-3 -15.2 :wall Current bank: 90.01 :cry Selections for sunday: #006: Ajax - AZ (0/10) @3.85 #007: Atletico - Espanyol (2/8) @3.55 #008: Celta - Villareal (0/5) @3.40 #009: Osasuna- Mallorca (0/6) @4.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 10, 2006 Author Share Posted December 10, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results Results: #006: Ajax - AZ (0/10) @3.85 2-2 :nana #007: Atletico - Espanyol (2/8) @3.55 1-2 :wall #008: Celta - Villareal (0/5) @3.40 1-1 :nana #009: Osasuna- Mallorca (0/6) @4.20 3-0 :nana Current Bank: 89.66 A disappointing start, we will see what will happen next weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted December 10, 2006 Share Posted December 10, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results it can be dissapointing when you hit e few losing bets at first with a laying system but keep with it mate :ok and :welcome to PL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alkarkar Posted December 10, 2006 Share Posted December 10, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results Good luck mate :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 15, 2006 Author Share Posted December 15, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results @Alkarkar en Aliando: thank you for the support :clap Two selections for tonight: #010: Helmond Sport - Haarlem (1/10) @ 2.46 #011: Bochum - Monchengladbach (0/6) @ 4.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 15, 2006 Author Share Posted December 15, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results Results: #010: Helmond Sport - Haarlem (1/10) @ 2.46 1-0 + 4.75 :nana #011: Bochum - Monchengladbach (0/6) @ 4.0 2-0 +4.75 :nana Almost back to where I started (99.16) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted December 15, 2006 Share Posted December 15, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results Results: #010: Helmond Sport - Haarlem (1/10) @ 2.46 1-0 + 4.75 :nana #011: Bochum - Monchengladbach (0/6) @ 4.0 2-0 +4.75 :nana Almost back to where I started (99.16) :clap:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 15, 2006 Author Share Posted December 15, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results Only two selections for saturday: #012: Charlton - Liverpool (3/7) @1.62 #013: Aston Villa - Bolton (1/6) @3.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted December 16, 2006 Share Posted December 16, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results This is a interesting idea. I think i will follow this. Good luck with your bets today:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 16, 2006 Author Share Posted December 16, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results Both bets were lost! #012: Charlton - Liverpool (3/7) @1.62 0-3 -6.48 :wall #013: Aston Villa - Bolton (1/6) @3.3 0-1 -13.20 :wall Current bank: 79.48. What a disaster :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 17, 2006 Author Share Posted December 17, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results Today's selections: #014: Everton - Chelsea (4/10) @1.6 #015: WestHam - Manchester United (3/8) @1.5 #016: Espanyol - Real Madrid (4/10) @2.10 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted December 17, 2006 Share Posted December 17, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results Tough ask today, best of luck asc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 18, 2006 Author Share Posted December 18, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results #014: Everton - Chelsea (4/10) @1.6 2-3 -6.40 :wall #015: WestHam - Manchester United (3/8) @1.5 1-0 +4.75 :nana #016: Espanyol - Real Madrid (4/10) @2.10 0-1 -8.40 :wall I think I invented a back away system in stead of a lay away system! Current bank: 69.43 :cry Selection for tonight: #017: Fulham - Middlesbrough (1/5) @3.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 19, 2006 Author Share Posted December 19, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results #017: Fulham - Middlesbrough (1/5) @3.5 2-1 +4.75 :nana Current bank: 74.18 Selection for tonight: #018: Bilbao - Zaragoza (1/9) @3.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 22, 2006 Author Share Posted December 22, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results Bilbao - Zaragoza finished at 0-0 which brings the bank to 78.93 Selections for tonight (Dutch Jupiler League): #019: TOP - MVV (1/7) @3.4 #020: Haarlem - Veendam (2/10) @4.0 #021: Volendam - Dordrecht (1/7) @3.9 #022: Eindhoven - Telstar (3/10) @2.82 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 22, 2006 Author Share Posted December 22, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results #019: TOP - MVV (1/7) @3.4 3-0 +4.75 :nana #020: Haarlem - Veendam (2/10) @4.0 2-0 +4.75 :nana #021: Volendam - Dordrecht (1/7) @3.9 1-3 -15.60 :wall #022: Eindhoven - Telstar (3/10) @2.82 2-1 +4.75 :nana Current bank: 77.58 Only one selection for Saturday: #023: Newcastle - Tottenham (2/10) @3.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 23, 2006 Author Share Posted December 23, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results #023: Newcastle - Tottenham (2/10) @3.15 3-1 +4.75 :nana Current Bank: 82.33 Selection for Sunday: #024: Roda JC - FC Twente (2/10) @2.48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 25, 2006 Author Share Posted December 25, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results #024: Roda JC - FC Twente (2/10) @2.48 2-0 +4.75 :nana Current bank: 87.08 Selections for tomorrow: #025: Feyenoord - PSV (2/10) @2.06 #026: Twente - AZ (2/10) @2.42 #027: NAC - Vitesse (3/10) @3.00 #028: NEC - Heerenveen (3/10) @3.10 #029: Blackburn - Liverpool (3/8) @1.84 #030: Bolton - Newcastle (1/6) @4.60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 27, 2006 Author Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results #025: Feyenoord - PSV (2/10) @2.06 1-1 +4.75:nana #029: Blackburn - Liverpool (3/8) @1.84 1-0 +4.75 :nana #030: Bolton - Newcastle (1/6) @4.60 2-1 +4.75 :nana Yet another selection for tonight: #031: Charlton - Fulham (1/5) @3.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 29, 2006 Author Share Posted December 29, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results #026: Twente - AZ (2/10) @2.42 3-0 +4.75 :nana #027: NAC - Vitesse (3/10) @3.00 2-1 +4.75 :nana #028: NEC - Heerenveen (3/10) @3.10 0-2 -12.40 :wall #031: Charlton - Fulham (1/5) @3.25 +2-2 +4.75 :nana Current bank: 103.18 (Into profit, but for how long?? :dude) UK Premier League selections for tomorrow: #032: Everton - Newcastle (2/10) @3.80 #033: Tottenham - Liverpool (2/10) @2.84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted December 30, 2006 Author Share Posted December 30, 2006 Re: Lay away system based on historical results Selections for tonight (Dutch Eredivisie): #034: RKC - Groningen (0/8) @2.80 #035: Sparta - Twente (1/7) @1.98 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted January 1, 2007 Author Share Posted January 1, 2007 Re: Lay away system based on historical results #032: Everton - Newcastle (2/10) @3.80 3-0 +4.75 :nana #033: Tottenham - Liverpool (2/10) @2.84 0-1 -11.36 :wall #034: RKC - Groningen (0/8) @2.80 0-2 -11.20 :wall #035: Sparta - Twente (1/7) @1.98 2-0 + 4.75 :nana Current bank: 90.12 Only one selection for this afternoon: #036: Manchester City - Everton (2/8) @3.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted January 12, 2007 Author Share Posted January 12, 2007 Re: Lay away system based on historical results #036: Manchester City - Everton (2/8) @3.3 2-1 +4.75 :nana Two selections for tonight: #037: Cambuur - Volendam (0/5) @2.88 #038: Helmond Sport - VVV (3/10) @2.08 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted January 13, 2007 Author Share Posted January 13, 2007 Re: Lay away system based on historical results #039: Charlton - Middlesbrough (1/7) @2.94 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted January 19, 2007 Author Share Posted January 19, 2007 Re: Lay away system based on historical results Three (last minute) selections for tonight: #040: Eindhoven - Dordrecht (1/10) @2.14 #041: MVV - Den Bosch (2/7) @2.52 #042: TOP - Stormvogels Telstar (1/10) @2.94 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asc Posted January 19, 2007 Author Share Posted January 19, 2007 Re: Lay away system based on historical results #037: Cambuur - Volendam (0/5) @2.88 0-1 -11.52 :wall #038: Helmond Sport - VVV (3/10) @2.08 1-1 +4.75 :nana #039: Charlton - Middlesbrough (1/7) @2.94 1-3 -11.76 :wall Current bank: 76.34 :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.