NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd)

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Schedule

Round 11 (All times local at venue)

Monday, November 27, 2006 Match (Home v Away) Venue Time TV >Bullets v Slingers Brisbane Convention Centre 07:40PM AEST Wednesday, November 29, 2006 Match (Home v Away) Venue Time TV Crocodiles v Slingers Townsville Entertainment Centre 06:34PM AEST Breakers v Razorbacks North Shore Events Centre - Auckland 07:00PM NZDT Thursday, November 30, 2006 Match (Home v Away) Venue Time TV Dragons v Wildcats Vodafone Arena - Melbourne 07:40PM AEDT Friday, December 1, 2006 Match (Home v Away) Venue Time TV Taipans v 36ers Cairns Convention Centre 07:40PM AEST Saturday, December 2, 2006 Match (Home v Away) Venue Time TV Hawks v Dragons WIN Entertainment Centre - Wollongong 07:34PM AEDT Crocodiles v 36ers Townsville Entertainment Centre 08:00PM AEST Razorbacks v Tigers Sydney Olympic Park Sports Centre 07:40PM AEDT Bullets v Breakers Brisbane Convention Centre 07:40PM AEST Sunday, December 3, 2006 Match (Home v Away) Venue Time TV Kings v Taipans Sydney Entertainment Centre 05:00PM AEDT

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[Mr Flamboyant]

Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) *CRACKER ALERT* Singapore +13.5 vs Brisbane .. Ok, you can take this or leave it but I have it from a direct source (ie one of their opposition players from friday night) that Brisbane is running on petrol fumes atm .. Sammy Mack and CJ got blind after friday's win against Cairns and backed up saturday night as well .. Needless to say a big let down spot for the Bullets here .. In contrast the Slingers have had three weeks to stew on their 3-8 start to the season .. If they don't come out refreshed and fired up for this game they may as well give it away .. Slingers are probably worth a small ping straight up, and certainly a bigger play ATS .. On what I've heard today coupled with the situation both teams come into this game, to me that line is a joke ..

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Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Brisbane vs Singapore Well a tricky one to start the week. On paper it looks like a write off and a big win to the Bullets, but its possible it could be closer than alot of people may think. Firstly the Slingers havnt played a match since November 3rd meaning they have had a 3 week break and should be fresh for this match tonight, while Brisbane have had a heavy schedule in recent times playing 7 games in this time since November 3rd. But i really dont think this will be a huge factor here and i anticipat Brisbane to win this, and in a big way. They really are one of the class teams in the league and i expect them to finish top 2 with Melbourne come seasons end, so for that to happen they must win these sorts of matches. Brisbane have won 5 of 6 at home while Singapore are yet to win a game on the road in their history and while i think its a near certainty that Brisbane will win, the question really is how much will they win by? Will a rejuvenated Singapore get within 10.5 points of the Bullets or will the Bullets wipe them away by over 10.5 points? Personally i believe it will be over 10.5 points. Brisbane just have too much depth and too many players in good form for the Slingers to compete with, Sam McKinnon is in career best form and is absolutely on fire in recent weeks with an average of 20 points a game while he is averaging close to 10 rebounds per game. Other players making an impact for Brisbane are Ebi Ere, Steve Black, CJ Bruton & Mark Bradtke. Dusty Rychart & Adam Gibson offer handy support also. Its hard to say much about Singapores form considering they havnt played in 24 days, but before their break Mike Helms was in brilliant form averaging 23 points a game, and Marquin Chandler & Ben Knight were servicable also. Hard to find any sort of value in this game considering the Bullets are only $1.08 to win this, im pretty confident the margin will be over 10.5 points but that is only paying $1.62. On the lines Brisbane -11.5 is $1.90 while the -15.5 is $2.10 and theres possible value in both. While -15.5 is getting high and risky, i still think it may be worth a shot but its a risk with high stakes. Over 10.5 would be high stakes however and thats how i will attack and its also worth noting that 8 of the Bullets 11 wins this season have been over the 10.5 margin while 3 of Singapores 4 matches on the road have been losses by Over 10.5. The total points line is 195.5 and while i think Brisbane can post a big score, im not sure Singapore will be able to hold up their end of the deal so i will stay away from this market. Another potential value bet is Sam McKinnon to score over 23 points at $2.45. He is in great form and is a real good chance to get over 23 here against a poor travelling side. Computer Generated Prediction:

Bullets	27	28	26	27	108
Slingers	23	22	22	23	90

Suggested Bets to Look Into: Brisbane Over 10.5 Brisbane on the -11.5 or 15.5 Lines Sam McKinnon Over 23 points at $2.45

[Mr Flamboyant]

Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Back Brisbane at the line at your own peril .. in a perfect world, sure, they win this by plenty but to ignore the circumstances both teams enter this game in is a mistake .. One team with tired players in a let down spot vs a team playing for it's finals survival and having had three weeks to stew over that proposition ..

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Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd)

Back Brisbane at the line at your own peril .. in a perfect world, sure, they win this by plenty but to ignore the circumstances both teams enter this game in is a mistake .. One team with tired players in a let down spot vs a team playing for it's finals survival and having had three weeks to stew over that proposition ..

Yeh i understand what your saying, i just think the difference in quality is too big. As far as depth goes Brisbane have Singapore covered, but the fact Singapore will be fresh is my only concerned. They have lost 3 of 4 on the road by over 10.5 and 8 of Brisbanes 11 wins have been over the 10.5 margin. I guess in 3 hours time we will know the result, but there isnt much value elsewhere and i really dont think Singapore can win.

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Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) 5 minutes in and Slingers lead 10 to 4 :eek :eek :eek

[-Loki-]

Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) 23-18 Bullets now

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Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) 3 minutes into the second quarter and Bullets lead 44-33, so all going to plan at the moment they just need to maintain this buffer and it could be a good night. Ebi Ere on fire at the moment with 16 points. The man in focus tonight is Sam McKinnon and he has only 5 points.

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Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Half way into the second quarter and Bullets lead 56-37, but thats not the story of the night so far. Ebi Ere has an incredible 27 points on the board already!! With still 2 and a half quarters left, he could have a big big night and beat the 50 point mark which would be unbelievable

[godmato]

Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Bravos!!!! At half-time is looking impressive!

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Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) New Zealand vs West Sydney

Well the first of two games Wednesday night which look like being very uneven. Remember this is an early start as its played in New Zealand so it will start 5pm AEST time. Its very hard to look past the home team here, not because they are a better side than the Razorbacks, but more because the Razorbacks cant win away from home. They are 0 wins from 5 on the road this season which is the equal worst in the league with Singapore (also playing tonight) and this fact is very hard to ignore. They have been absolutely hammered in some of those games too such as the 37 point hammering by Singapore, the 43 point loss at Sydney, 12 point loss against the Wildcats and recent losses against the Dragons & Adelaide. The 37 point loss to Singapore is a strange one considering Singapore have only won 1 other game this year. One thing you can guarantee with West Sydney though is that they have high scoring matches, in their 13 games this year, the combined match total has been over 200 on 10 occasions and the Razorbacks themselves have scored over 100 points on 9 occasions, so that’s some pretty high scoring matches there. New Zealand on the other hand have had a mixed season, they have put in a lot of great performances but also a few bad performances. At home they are 4 wins from 8 and have actually beaten the top two sides in the league here. They hammered the Melbourne Tigers by 19 points and beat the inform Brisbane Bullets, while nearly beating the Kings and getting within 1 point of Townsville. New Zealands good form this season can be majorly attributed to the brilliant form of Carlos Powell and Ben Pepper who are fantastic and highly attacking. They have good support Paul Henare & Tim Behrendorff and Aaron Olsen is very handy coming off the bench making some great cameos. West Sydney rely too heavily on Justin Bailey for success, but don’t get me wrong the guy is brilliant when on song, but when he isnt West Sydney struggle. West Sydney have quite a few good players such as James Harvey, Liam Rush, Scott McGreggor & Cheikh Ya Ya Dia , but they just cant seem to put 4 quarters together. Quite often this season they have got into winnable positions only to fail and I believe they have little to no hope of getting anything out of this game. I think New Zealand will have a big win.

Not much value here for the New Zealand win at $1.16, so I think the Over 10.5 margin or New Zealand on any of the lines is good value. They are $2.00 for the Over 10.5, while on the -11.5 line they are $2.10 and $1.90 on the -9.5 line. All not bad value for a game New Zealand should win easily. As I stated above, West Sydney play in some very high scoring games and New Zealand are capable of getting big scores too, so the Over 213.5 total points looks a good option here at $1.90. Its quite a high line but one I think will happen if past history is anything to go by.

Computer Generated Prediction:

Breakers	30	28	27	30	115
Razorbacks	25	25	25	24	99

Suggested Bets to Look Into:

New Zealand Over 10.5 at $2.00

New Zealand -9.5 and -11.5 at $2.10 and $1.90

Total Points Over 213.5 at $1.90

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Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Townsville vs Singapore

The second match of the night which I predict will be uneven. Singapore are coming off a big 38 point loss to Brisbane Monday night and now must travel up the road to face Townsville who are one of the best home teams in this league. They have won 5 from 6 this season while Singapore have lost 5 from 5 on the road making them equal worst away side in the league. Townsville have a quality list which I believe will see them finish in the top 4 this year. Larry Abney, John Rillie & Brad Newley are all brilliant players and are the reason they are flying at the moment, but now with the addition of EJ Rowland to the team they will seriously threaten for a top 4 spot as those are some very strong players and will be hard for any team to stop. The Sydney Kings are crazy for letting EJ Rowland go and he will make a big impact at the Crocodiles I am positive. Singapore have a superstar in their side themselves who goes by the name of Mike Helms who is averaging close to 23 points a game while they have some good support under the ring in Ben Melmeth & Ben Knight, the latter who is a very good player. But I really cant see Singapore getting anything out of this match at all and Townsville are in line for a big win here in my opinion.

As was the case in the Breakers match, Townsville are too short at $1.13 and not worth backing. So will take the same approach in this match as I did in the Breakers match also in taking the Crocodiles Over the 10.5 margin at $1.90 or at the line of -10.5 or -12.5 at $2.10 and $1.90. I think both are pretty safe while the Under/Over points margin is a tougher one. The line is 209.5 and the computer generated prediction below comes up with only 204 total points. While I think Townsville will be able to put up a big score, im not sure Singapore will be able to keep up their end of the bargain which is why I might stay away from this market. But I will put it in the tips below for further looking into for those that are interested, because there really isnt a lot of other value out there.

Computer Generated Prediction:

Crocodiles	28	28	26	27	109
Slingers	24	24	24	23	95

Suggested Tips to Look Into:

Pick Townsville Over 10.5 at $1.90

Pick Townsville on the -10.5 and -12.5 line at $2.10 and $1.90

Total Points Over 209.5 at $1.90

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Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Thought id try and get tommorow nights tips in early because i wont have alot of time tommorow. Both games i think will be fairly uneven and you need to look elsewhere for value. Personally The Over 10.5 margins look likely and thats the way i will be heading. Perhaps doing a double of Breakers/Crocodiles Over 10.5 at odds of $3.80 is worth a shot and is fantastic odds for what looks a likely occurance. Also worth noting is the accuracy of the computer generated predictions ive been doing. Of the past 15 tips, 13 have been correct which is an 87% strikerate and is quite incredible really. One of the ones that was incorrect was a match where it had Bullets to win by 1, and it ended in a draw and went to Crocodiles in overtime. So you couldnt get much closer. Best of luck to those betting tonight, but its a long round which doesnt wrap up til Sunday night. :ok

[godmato]

Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Ads, can you please tell me what is the nbl official site, please? thanx

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Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd)

Ads, can you please tell me what is the nbl official site, please? thanx

Yeah mate its www.nbl.com.au :ok

[godmato]

Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Thanx mate!

[Beejayville]

Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Great call on the Bullets game Ads :ok Breakers and Crocodiles look morals going by your computer stats and the predicted margins, only bad luck of a perverse kind could see these 2 teams getting beaten. Thanx for providing the figures too :clap

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Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd)

Great call on the Bullets game Ads :ok Breakers and Crocodiles look morals going by your computer stats and the predicted margins, only bad luck of a perverse kind could see these 2 teams getting beaten. Thanx for providing the figures too :clap

Singapore & West Sydney are shit away from home, betweem them they have not won a game on the road this season. I will be extremely supprised if they both dont get flogged tommorow night, thats all ill say

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Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) I have just put a bet on the double of New Zealand Over 10.5 into Townsville -12.5 at $4.20 which i have pretty high confidence of. If you read my previews you can see why. These two sides have just way too much quality for their oposition who are now out of finals contention pretty much and have been on the receiving end of some hammerings in recent times. At $4.20 you wont often get better odds on an event i think is very highly likely of occuring. Best of luck :ok

[godmato]

Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Breakers 116 - 104 Razorbacks! But the game was equal until 4 minutes 'till the end when B Pepper made plaied his part good and turned things arround. Good call on this ads! After a few researches i decided to go with it too! So now we will wait for double...:hope:hope:hope

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Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd)

Breakers 116 - 104 Razorbacks! But the game was equal until 4 minutes 'till the end when B Pepper made plaied his part good and turned things arround. Good call on this ads! After a few researches i decided to go with it too! So now we will wait for double...:hope:hope:hope

Thanks man, but gee they made me sweat!! They were down by 10 points at one stage and to show you how close it was, with 3 seconds left the margin was the Breakers by 10 points, they nail 2 free throws right on the buzzer to give us a 12 point margin and keep our double open! An unbelievable rush at the end!! :loon Was nearly close to throwing my fist through the screen that last 4 minutes haha. Now it looks like the Crocodiles are going to do the same thing to me, 9 minutes left in the second quarter and its equal after the Slingers got off to a good start.

[godmato]

Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Maybe they just need someone to piss them off :))

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Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd)

Suggested Bets to Look Into:

New Zealand Over 10.5 at $2.00

New Zealand -9.5 and -11.5 at $2.10 and $1.90

Total Points Over 213.5 at $1.90

All 3 tips got up there, but it was very close. New Zealands 2 points on the buzzer got us the Over 10.5 and the -11.5 line in unbelievable circumstances. The computer generated predictions proved very accurate to taking us from 14 wins in 16 matches. Have a look:

Predicted Score			Real Score
New Zealand	115		New Zealand	116
West Sydney	99		West Sydney	104

:nana :nana :nana :nana

[godmato]

Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) 4 minutes to go and the Crocodiles are 25 points ahead!!!!! :hope:hope:hope

[godmato]

Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) And Chandler is out for 5 pers mistakes! J Rillie has 4 so far and he is MOM Stupid me Chandler is not out :(

[godmato]

Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Crocodile 120 - 101 Slingers NICE DOUBLE ADS!!!! What can i say ...you're the man! Thanx