cavello Posted November 23, 2006 Share Posted November 23, 2006 Below are the top 5-6 in 3 divisions based on my pure penetration ratings. These are based on the last 6 home and away games and are closely related to the method developed by Paul Steel. I call them pure because I don't factor in goals and base the ratings on shots and corners. The data is available from http://www.365stats.com/ :ok :clap . This site cannot be praise too highly:clap . Stacks of useful information particularly the shots and corner info which allows deeper insight into a teams ability or form. PREMIER LEAGUE PENETRATION RATINGS<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />TEAM ABS H ABS H RATING LIVERPOOL 1.98 1.64 362 ARSENAL 2.38 0.4 278 MAN UNITED 1.06 1.56 262 CHELSEA 1.42 0.38 180 MAN CITY 0.86 -0.16 70 PRIMERA LEAGUE PENETRATION RATINGSTEAM ABS H ABS A RATING A MADRID 1.4 0 140 SEVILLA 1.08 0.08 116 MALLORCA 0.86 0.16 102 BARCELONA 0.72 0.2 92 DEPORTIVO 0.5 0.06 56 BUNDESLIGAPENETRATION RATINGSTEAM ABS H ABS H RATING B MUNICH1.46 0.6 206 NURNBERG1.06 0.1 116 STUTTGART0.94 0.18 112 W BREMEN0.44 0.68 112 HAMBURG1.2 -0.18 102 SCHALKE0.9 -0.08 82 Obviously goals decide matches but these rating may show teams experiencing a degree of bad luck or lacking in the striker department. Apart from being able to produce a league I can enter the relevant data for 2 teams and get a picture based on pure penetration of the relative strengths of both sides. Useful for leagues where I can't be bothered to produce League tables, but want to analyze a certain match. Does anyone here apart from Paul, develop or use ratings and how do you relate these to the odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyR Posted November 23, 2006 Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Penetration Ratings Hi, Played around with these last season using Paul Steele's method (modified slightly). He used the following calculation to work out the number of goals a team SHOULD have scored and I put these into the spreadsheet developed by mronemore (http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=12655&highlight=metric). The calculation was ((shots off target + corners)+2(shots on target))/10 plus add an extra goal if the team wins. Putting the penetration scores from each game into the spreadsheet gave power ratings, which I then compared against a table/graph put up by Muppet in the same thread for power ratings based on actual goals scored. This was pretty accurate in predicting correct home odds (yield was 6%), and betting on discrepancies appeared to work well, but I couldn't get it to work for away scores (I didn't care about draws, they are just too damn hard), this could be because I retained the 0.4 goal home advantage in the spreadsheet. I wasn't too confident that it wasn't purely luck that I made a profit. When I tried to increase the number of games the spreadsheet covered it crashed my computer, so I couldn't back test it over entire seasons. Maybe you could do something with it?! GL Andy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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