Jonne Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 I'd like to try out something for a bit of fun, not trying with real money. What I'm going to do, is look at some matches in the premier league and back some of the strong defenders to score the first goal. I'm trying with a bank of 100 units and staking 1 on each bet. All bets will be with Betdirect, as they have each way bets on the 1'st goalscorer thing :) Bets for next week: Aston Villa - Middlesbrough: Mellberg @ 40/1 Ridgewell @ 28/1 Huth @ 40/1 Woodgate @ 40/1 Fulham - Reading: Sonko @ 40/1 Ingimarsson @ 33/1 Liverpool - City: Agger @ 33/1 Hyypia @ 33/1 Dunne @ 50/1 Newcastle - Portsmouth: Campbell @ 40/1 Man U - Chelski: Terry @ 22/1 Vidic @ 28/1 Ferdinand @ 40/1 Carvalho @ 50/1 Bolton - Arsenal: Gallas @ 33/1 Senderos @ 50/1 Total staked: 16 Bankroll left: 84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks Interesting strategy Jonne, you only need one of those to come in for a very decent profit! Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted November 23, 2006 Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks Worth keeping a eye on defenders that take penalties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted November 23, 2006 Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks Good Luck. Backing odds of 25/1 and above at 1pt per bet means you only need 1 bet to make a good profit. It also means you are very likely to be out of money before you hit bet 200. Pinho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonne Posted November 24, 2006 Author Share Posted November 24, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks Worth keeping a eye on defenders that take penalties. Good point. And Pinho, that's true, but I've been wondering if the defenders were overpriced as first goalscorers for a long time, and needed to see if I was right :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonne Posted November 26, 2006 Author Share Posted November 26, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks I'd like to try out something for a bit of fun, not trying with real money. What I'm going to do, is look at some matches in the premier league and back some of the strong defenders to score the first goal. I'm trying with a bank of 100 units and staking 1 on each bet. All bets will be with Betdirect, as they have each way bets on the 1'st goalscorer thing :) Bets for next week: Aston Villa - Middlesbrough: Mellberg @ 40/1 -1 Ridgewell @ 28/1 -1 Huth @ 40/1 -1 Woodgate @ 40/1 -1 Fulham - Reading: Sonko @ 40/1 -1 Ingimarsson @ 33/1 -1 Liverpool - City: Agger @ 33/1 -1 Hyypia @ 33/1 -1 Dunne @ 50/1 -1 Newcastle - Portsmouth: Campbell @ 40/1 -1 Man U - Chelski: Terry @ 22/1 -1 Vidic @ 28/1 -1 Ferdinand @ 40/1 -1 Carvalho @ 50/1 EW won, Profit of 16,67 (16,66666666667) Bolton - Arsenal: Gallas @ 33/1 Didn't play Senderos @ 50/1 -1 Total staked: 16 Bankroll left: 84 Total staked: 15 Total profit: 2,67 Bankroll left: 102,67 Profit: 17,8 %(2,67/15) Strike rate: 6,67 % (1/15) Started out okay, need a lot more bets to check out if it's profitable though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted November 26, 2006 Share Posted November 26, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks What odds do Betdirect do for e/w?? W.Hills do e/w on goalscorers and offer 1/2 odds. If I remembr right, Betdirect only do 1/3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonne Posted November 26, 2006 Author Share Posted November 26, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks What odds do Betdirect do for e/w?? W.Hills do e/w on goalscorers and offer 1/2 odds. If I remembr right' date=' Betdirect only do 1/3.[/quote'] Aye, 1/3. 50/3 = 16,66666667. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted November 26, 2006 Share Posted November 26, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks Ye, was feeling lazy and couldnt be arsed to do the maths to work it out. It might be worth checking Hills prices as well then seeing they offer a 1/2 odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 26, 2006 Share Posted November 26, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks what about LAST scorer - when defenders are thrown forward to attack corners more? (same odds as first scorer usually) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonne Posted November 26, 2006 Author Share Posted November 26, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks Ye' date=' was feeling lazy and couldnt be arsed to do the maths to work it out. It might be worth checking Hills prices as well then seeing they offer a 1/2 odds.[/quote'] Good points :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonne Posted November 28, 2006 Author Share Posted November 28, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks Bets for tomorrow: Villa - City: Dunne @ 40 Mellberg @ 40 Bouma @ 40 Ridgewell @ 28 Fulham - Arsenal Senderos @ 33 Toure @ 28 Knight @ 66 Portsmouth - 'Pool Agger @ 28 Hyypia @ 33 Campbell @ 50 Man U - Everton Vidic @ 28 Ferdinand @ 33 Yobo @ 50 Bolton - Chelsea: The prices are a bit weak on the chelsea backs, but anyway: Geremi 22/1 Terry, John 20/1 Carvalho @ 33 Total staked: 31 (16 this gameweek) Rest bank: 86 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 28, 2006 Share Posted November 28, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks so did you go for first or last scorer, mate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonne Posted November 29, 2006 Author Share Posted November 29, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks so did you go for first or last scorer' date=' mate?[/quote'] Went for first this time, but will look into you guys suggestions friday, just had no time when I made the second round of bets, so I went with what I started out with :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks Don't most full-back goals come as a result of corners, either directly or indirectly? If so, what about combining this idea with some corner stats, say bet on defenders that play for teams with a high Corners For count, or when playing against teams with a high Corners Against count? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonne Posted November 30, 2006 Author Share Posted November 30, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks Don't most full-back goals come as a result of corners' date=' either directly or indirectly? If so, what about combining this idea with some corner stats, say bet on defenders that play for teams with a high Corners For count, or when playing against teams with a high Corners Against count?[/quote'] I'll try looking at Paul Ross' stats for these things :) And I'll fix up the yield and so on tomorrow, too tired today and off to work soon :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks Just realised we're talking about centre-backs, not full-backs :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonne Posted November 30, 2006 Author Share Posted November 30, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks Just realised we're talking about centre-backs' date=' not full-backs :lol[/quote'] Didn't know there was a difference :p EDIT- guess the fullbacks are the ones on the side of the centrebacks then ;p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks Yep, full-backs play wide (a la Ashley Cole). My suggestion of using corner stats really applies to centre backs I reckon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonne Posted December 2, 2006 Author Share Posted December 2, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks Yep' date=' full-backs play wide (a la Ashley Cole). My suggestion of using corner stats really applies to centre backs I reckon.[/quote'] The plan was to back the centre-backs ;p Will have to get back to this for the next gameweek, really short on time these days :| Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonne Posted December 4, 2006 Author Share Posted December 4, 2006 Re: Backing the fullbacks I'll create a new thread with a new method, using you guys ideas and using a proper name (Centre-backs instead of full-backs) ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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