turnlux Posted November 18, 2006 Share Posted November 18, 2006 I've been looking at a way of using the high percentage of home wins/draws and putting it in to a successful betting strategy. So here goes. For the purpose of this thread I shall call this strategy the Double Chance Strategy. At this stage I wouldn't advise any one to place bets on my selections as this needs to be tested out long term. So I'm only paper trailing at the momment. Selections will be chosen from that evenings or weekends televised games from british broadcasting companies. Selections Will be home sides only with odds between 1.20 - 4.00. I will start with a 100 point start bank and each selection will have a fixed stake of 10 points given to it. I don't expect to make enormous profit from each bet but if I can achieve consistency with the bets then hopefully the profit will follow over time. I will post my selections the evening before and update on results too. Fingers crossed.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted November 18, 2006 Share Posted November 18, 2006 Re: Double Chance Strategy :welcome and Good Luck! I hope your system is profitable, and one thing I can tell you, you will learn a lot here at PL. I also learned a lot when posting at the forum forced me to be more systematic in recording and analyzing my bets. That's the best thing I extracted from this forum, and the turning point for me to move into consistent profit. I wish you the best of luck with your bets. Pinho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted November 18, 2006 Author Share Posted November 18, 2006 Re: Double Chance Strategy thanks alot pinhofap. I shall put your wise words to good use.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted November 18, 2006 Author Share Posted November 18, 2006 Re: Double Chance Strategy Here we go then, these will be my first selections for tomorrow (sun 19). Ipswich V Norwich Ipswich home win/draw 1.40 Wigan v Aston Villa Wigan home win/draw 1.36 Hearts v Rangers Hearts home win/draw 1.38 Blackburn v Tottenham Blackburn home win/draw 1.36 Armenia Bielefeld v Vfl Wolfsburg Armenia home win/draw 1.20 Auxerre v Toulouse Auxerre home/draw 1.23 Mallorca v Barcelona Mallorca home win/draw 2.17 Maritimo v Sporting Lisbon Maritimo home win/draw 1.60 All selections are staked at 10 points. home win/draw counts as 1 selection. Results will be posted 2-3 times a week. selections will be posted the evening before the games.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted November 19, 2006 Author Share Posted November 19, 2006 Re: Double Chance Strategy Here are the results for todays selections. Ipswich 1.40 Home win:clap Wigan 1.36 Home draw:clap Hearts 1.38 Lost:wall Blackburn 1.36 Home Draw:clap Armenia Bielefeld 1.20 Home Draw:clap Auxerre 1.23 Home Win:clap Mallorca 2.17 Lost:wall Maritimo 1.60 Lost:wall So overall record stands:- Start Bank:100 Current Bank:86.68 Total Staked:80 Wins:5 Losses:3 Strike Rate:63% Yield:-16% Profit:-13.32 Despite picking 5 winners from 8 selections the overall record is not a good start. Things to consider perhaps is maybe scaling down the selection criteria in terms of odds. Maybe only selections with odds between 1.20 - 1.40 can qualify? Another thing to look in to is the statistic of home wins/draws to each nations league. Do some nations have considerably lower home win/draws compared to others? Would this then be another reason for overlooking those selections? I shall continue with the strategy as I have outlined. Further paper trail is required before I can perhaps answer some of the above questions. As for tomorrow there are no selections.:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted November 19, 2006 Share Posted November 19, 2006 Re: Double Chance Strategy I'm sorry I didn't notice the Maritimo game, I would have told you that 1.6 for the home win against a team as strong is Sporting is a very bad price. In fact, if I had seen that price I would happily lay it, but I am now betting horses mainly. Maritimo vs Sporting should be more of an evens home win, never 1.6. I always try to keep an eye on Portuguese selections, but missed this one. If you want a good tip for Portugal, back Porto at home, it (almost) never fails. Good Luck Pinho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted November 20, 2006 Author Share Posted November 20, 2006 Re: Double Chance Strategy thanks for the tip pinhofap. The maritimo game was selected because it was one of the televised games. It maybe another thing to look at down the line when I'm fine tuning things, whether to include televised games or not or just to select games from the list with the odds catchment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted November 20, 2006 Author Share Posted November 20, 2006 Re: Double Chance Strategy Here we go again then, These are the selections for 21/11. Real Madrid Home Win/Draw v Lyon @ 1.20 Celtic Home Win/Draw v Man Utd @ 1.66 Fingers crossed we have some success. :hope I'll update Tuesday night and provide selections for Wednesday.:notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted November 20, 2006 Share Posted November 20, 2006 Re: Double Chance Strategy Are you doing these bets with a bookie? I've just had a look at Betfair and you can get 1.30 by Laying Lyon and 1.8 by laying Man Utd. It's the same bet in the end, but much better odds. If you ever use this system with real money I suggest you seriously consider Betfair as the better prices will help your profit figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted November 21, 2006 Author Share Posted November 21, 2006 Re: Double Chance Strategy At the mo I'm only using Ladbrokes as it's the only Bookie I know that runs a double chance coupon. But I'll definately have a look at the Betfair prices. Thanks:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted November 21, 2006 Author Share Posted November 21, 2006 Re: Double Chance Strategy Here are the results for tonights selections:- Real Madrid Draw @ 1.20:clap Celtic Home Win @ 1.66:clap Overall:- Start Bank 100 Current Bank 95.31 No. of Bets 10 Wins 7 Losses 3 Strike Rate 70% Yield -5% Profit -4.69 Two good results tonight even though both could have gone either way. The strike rate is pleasing, but still need to improve yield and profit margins. Heading the right way though. Thanks for all your suggestions and ideas, keep em' coming.:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted November 21, 2006 Author Share Posted November 21, 2006 Re: Double Chance Strategy Here are the selections for Wednesday:- Dundalk Home Win/Draw - Lay Waterford @ 8.6 Werder Bremen Home Win/Draw - Lay Chelsea @ 3.25 As you can see after Oscar the Crouch's excellent advice I have found better odds with Betfair. So the majority of selections will be made with the laying price in mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted November 22, 2006 Author Share Posted November 22, 2006 Re: Double Chance Strategy results for tonights selections:- Dundalk home win/draw @ 4.1:clap Werder Bremen home win @ 3.25:clap Overall standings:- Starting Bank:100 Current Bank:168.69 No. of Bets:12 Winners: 9 Losers:3 Strike Rate:75% Yield:14% Profit:68.69 Two good nights have at last started to move things in the right direction. If i can continue to hit 75% strike then hpoefully yield and profit should build. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted November 23, 2006 Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Double Chance Strategy I'm a little confused by the large increase in your bank from the two bets. Have you miscalculated the lay price as the back price? If you layed Chelsea at 3.25, then you were backing the home win/draw at 1.44. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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