barrhead73 Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Hello to everyone, this is my first post and my first drip on this site. I have paper traded this system for 36 bets with the following results, Bets : 36 Strike Rate : 52.78% Ave Odds : 2.21 Initial Bank : £200 Current Bank : £212.24 Total Stakes : £74.99 ROI : 16.32% Using a Rising Floor staking plan for this one. No doubt the returns will start to fall now that i am going public.:cry Ok, here goes, Bet 37: Man City tb Middlesborough @ 2.26 Stake : £2.12 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip :welcome to the PL buddy. Looks promising and good luck now you've gone public with it!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip :welcome to PL good luck with your system :hope - any chance you could give us a few details? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 31, 2006 Author Share Posted October 31, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Bet 37 wins. :clap Didnt watch the game, but i heard City were a bit nervy in the last 10 minutes. Of the 37 bets in this system there have been 14 1-0 results.....might be worth keeping an eye on this. Bank now £214.91 4 games for tonight, all in the Coca Cola. Bet 38: Sheff Wed tb Crystal Palace @ 2.5 Bet 39: Leicester tb Stoke @ 2.28 Bet 40: Coventry tb Birmingham @ 2.42 Bet 41: Luton tb Burnley @ 2.32 Stake for each bet now up to £2.15 If you guys don't mind i will keep quiet on details of this system for another few days to ensure that this is just not a case of beginners luck. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 1, 2006 Author Share Posted November 1, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Two good comebacks ensure the the"floor" is raised again. Bets 38 & 39 win, :ok the other two go down.:cry Bank now £216.58 Only one for tonight in Italy's Serie B Bet 42: Frosinone tb Lecce @2.62 Stake = £2.17 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 1, 2006 Author Share Posted November 1, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Going to continue with this drip for another weekend then look to adjust it slightly based on the data provided. I am hoping to raise the strike rate to over 66% whilst keeping the average winning odds at the 2.2-2.3 mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 1, 2006 Author Share Posted November 1, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Early kick-off in Italy and Frosinone bt Lecce 2-1 :clap Bank now £220.10 No bets tomorrow, but there will be plenty more over the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Nice going buddy, long may it continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Early kick-off in Italy and Frosinone bt Lecce 2-1 :clap Bank now £220.10 No bets tomorrow, but there will be plenty more over the weekend. You seem to be able to pick the comebacks!! :lol:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 2, 2006 Author Share Posted November 2, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Four bets on the system for tomorrow night, all of which are in the French Ligue 2. Bet 43: Guingamp tb Montpellier @ 2.1 Bet 44: Guegnon tb Reims @ 2.1 Bet 45: Chateauroux tb Metz @ 2.55 Bet 46: Grenoble tb Caen @ 2.60 Stake for each bet = £2.20 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 3, 2006 Author Share Posted November 3, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 5, 2006 Author Share Posted November 5, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip 1 win and 3 losses from fridays games. 9 wins and 11 losses from Saturday. Bit disappointed with the strike rate, but some of the odds were pretty good value especially Fulham at 2.8 Not to confident that the Sunday picks will bring the weekend back to 50% but will report back on Monday with full results page. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 5, 2006 Share Posted November 5, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip When you do the results you need to start at bet 1 and not 37, you cannot include bets that have not been posted before the event. You could mention a "paper trail" result as well as a "as posted" result. I assume you will also be adding a description of the system. It doesn't matter that you are still working on it, and you can change your mind about the rules along the way. By posting a description you have a chance that someone comes along with an idea that is exactly what you are looking for. Without a description no-one can do anything for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 6, 2006 Author Share Posted November 6, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Only been in here one week and already I am in trouble:unsure I thought i had mentioned that this was a paper trail in the first message, all that i stated was that i was going public with it. Basic rules for the drip are........ Pick the home team with the value! Complicated isnt it! Ok heres this weekends PAPER trail results. After Fridays results the bank was down to £215.92 and therefore the stake for each bet on Saturday was £3.04. After Saturdays results, the bank had went back up to £219.42 and the Sunday stakes were £2.34 After Sunday's results, Bets: 76 Wins:38 Strike Rate: 50% Initial Bank: £200 Current Bank: £229.48 Growth: 14.74% ROI: 16.30% Atalanta's win over Milan was a nice shot in the arm on Sunday. Ok, now i am starting a new drip, which isnt a Paper trail. Starting Bank £200 Bets for Today, None. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip dont look at it as being in trouble mate - we try to make sure that those with a genuine system and profits are distinguished from the after eventers good results to start off with - good luck keeping it going mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Maybe you should give credit to the guy that actually invented the Rising Floor staking plan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 6, 2006 Author Share Posted November 6, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Cheers Aliando. After eventers are the lowest of the low and i certainly wont be one of them. Bit more info on my selection system, 1) Always the home team 2) Good value (from the start of this drip i am only going with odds >2.0 3) The opponents must be above the home team in the league, but only by a maximum of 5 positions. This is the crux of my theory.......a side playing at home against another side who are only just above them in the league will make the home side try that bit harder to catch their opponents. Anyway, thats basically it. Had i stuck to only choosing teams with odds >2.0 on the paper trail then my results would have been even better, with a 19.65% growth rate and a 25.64% ROI. The strike rate would also have been better at 52.31% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 6, 2006 Author Share Posted November 6, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Full credit to Mr Fox, but a system that has a 50% strike rate with average odds of 2.35 will always produce positive returns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip His staking methodology increases ROI for positive even stakes betting. In my book thats something worth being appreciative of. Well done with your picks so far & good luck with this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Maybe you should give credit to the guy that actually invented the Rising Floor staking plan? Where can I find out more info/read about this rising staking plan you talk of? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 6, 2006 Author Share Posted November 6, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip I have a blank Excel spreadsheet with the system, or else you can get it from Mr Fox on the Punters Forum (General) at bookiebusters.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip I have a blank Excel spreadsheet with the system' date=' or else you can get it from Mr Fox on the Punters Forum (General) at bookiebusters.com[/quote'] Ok cheers for that, I may have a look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 7, 2006 Author Share Posted November 7, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Ok, now it all begins for real! 5 bets today. The prices are from Bet365 and were placed yesterday. Bet 1: Bastia @ 2.10 Bet 2: Brest @ 2.15 Bet 3: Istres @ 2.2 Bet 4: Braunshweig @ 2.1 Bet 5: Paderborn @ 2.62 Stake = £2 per bet. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 7, 2006 Author Share Posted November 7, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Just checked Bet365 prices this morning, and Bastia have went up to 2.5 while Paderborn are up to 2.7. Lesson learned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 7, 2006 Author Share Posted November 7, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Bets 1-5 all go down:@ Typical, as soon as you leave the paper trail the systems goes t*ts up. Bank now £190. More games tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 8, 2006 Author Share Posted November 8, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Time to start talking about exit strategies! When i lloked at these 5 games yesterday i wasnt too confident, but thought that i would get 1 or 2 results. Nevermind. The positive plan was Turn £200 into £300 then bank £50 and move onto stage 2 However Should the bank drop below £175 then the stage is over and we go back to an original £200. The RF staking plan is telling me today that every bet for today requires a £4 stake. There are four bets thrown up today, therefore if my fantastic 0% record continues stage 1 will end with losses of £26 tonight!!!!!!!!!! I need some positive vibes here lads.:notworthy Todays system selections are all from Germany, Bet 5: Bochum tb Bayer @ 2.8 Bet 6: Armenia Bielefeld tb Hertha @ 2.4 Bet 7: Augsburg tb Freiburg @ 2.45 Bet 8: Carl Zeiss Jena tb Greuther Furth @ 2.62 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 8, 2006 Author Share Posted November 8, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip I did a re-run of the paper trail results using just DNB bets but it didnt throw up any better returns than with the Win only system. I'm hoping that last nights results were just a blip, i may have to look into weighting the stakes based on the country where the game is taking place. Any helpful thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted November 9, 2006 Share Posted November 9, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Be way more selective with your picks. Even someone that lives & breathes the Bundesliga would struggle to make cash with that many selections. One good bet every day/every 2nd day/every week is better than a splatter gun approach of 5/6 per day. To have properly researched and analyised the amount of games you are backing you'd want to have a shed load of time on your hands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 9, 2006 Author Share Posted November 9, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Time to draw a line under stage 1 of this drip. Stage 1: -£16.20 Don't see the point in firing big stakes to try and bring this back to £200. Would prefer to start again and look to get some profit. ps only Augsburg won last night, a 90th minute equaliser killed the Carl Zeiss Jena game, had that stayed 1-0 this drip would still be live. Onto Stage 2, the target is to make a profit of £20 and then bank it to offset stage 1's loss. No bets today. Thanks for the input Rafa, but i do feel this system will work more often than it fails. However i will look to adopt a policy of A,B and C bets where, A= full stake money B= 75% of full stake money C= 25% of full stake money Onwards and upwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 9, 2006 Author Share Posted November 9, 2006 Re: Home Football Drip Further tinkering with the system. The old data has been analysed further and a points system has been developed. I will be using this sytem to determine three types of bet. 1. No bet (leave it alone) (Dont touch with bargepole) 2. Full stake money on a DNB 3. 50% of stake money on the Win With the old system, tomorrow night would have seen 8 matches thrown up. With the new system only 5 are highlighted, and all of them fall into category 2 (DNB). Will post the picks tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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