fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Hi guys, i think this will be the first system i have posted up on here, so go easy please. anyway, i have just done a bit of number crunching in excel of the horse data from http://data.betfair.com owing to the size of the files, i have only tested the period from 28/8 to 3/9, and for UK/Irish racing only.. and anyway, as you are probably aware, the majority of the trading guides written on trading the nags before the off advise you to close your position before the off, so that you have no position in running as this is too unpredictable.. not so i say, at least based on this albeit small sample. of 456 horses that last traded at 3.0 or higher right before the off in this period, a rather impressive 305 traded at under half those odds. laying twice the stake at this halved price in running should generate approximately + 305 pts on all green screens, and -151 pts on those that didnt trade lower and therefore lost the backing stake for a toal of +154 and a yield of 33%!! had anyone else tried anything similar in practice? it does look pretty promising, and requires no knowledge of form etc.. ps, the higher the SP, the more likely it is to trade at half the odds - ie for those that start at over 100 on the exchanges, 89% at some point in the race trade at half those odds. might require fruther investigation FC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy ok, first test looks like being:- 14.20 Smart John currently 11.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy ok, -1 there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy next, patavian @ 17 in the 14.30 target 8.4 im only gonna do 1 horse per race as im still testing on paper, so its easier to keep track of! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy ran like a turnip, -2 from 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy 14.40 Josr's Magic on at 21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy kiss of death now.. - 3 from 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy 14.50 Eloquent Rose on @ 17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy finally. +1 trade all the way down to 5 in-play Trades: 4 Net Profit :-2 Yield : -50% next one will be 15.05 Owners bicuits. price to be confirmed before the off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy 15.05 Owners biscuits @ 16 im selecting these purely by price at the mo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy balls, another -1 Trades: 5 Wins: 1 Net Profit :-3 Yield : -60% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy 15.15 Free to Air @ 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy knackers again Trades: 6 Wins: 1 Net Profit :-4 Yield : -67% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy 15.25 Aureate @ 5.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy close but no cigar, only got down to 3.07 Trades: 7 Wins: 1 Net Profit :-5 Yield : -71% 15.35 Jupiters moon @ 20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy Trades: 8 Wins: 1 Net Profit :-6 Yield : -75% now really, this is getting silly.. 15.45 Rocamadour @ 10.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy woo-bloody-hoo :) +1 Trades: 9 Wins: 2 Net Profit :-5 Yield : -55% 15.55 Mine @8.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy nice... +1 again this is more like it!! :) Trades: 10 Wins: 3 Net Profit :-4 Yield : -40% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy 16.10 Qik Dip @ 15 could be the one for me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy Very interesting :ok. How are you selecting which horse to follow? I haven't looked at in-running horse data yet. I presume the market is quite volatile if the stats you quote prove to be the long term norm? Does the distance have much of an effect? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy Don't you have to be aware of reduction factors affecting backers and layers differently? The 4.10 has a total reduction factor of 27.3% at the moment. Or have the prices already taken that into account? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy There's not much liquidity during a race is there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy another +1 on a roll. trade down to 7.0 in play Trades: 11 Wins: 4 Net Profit :-3 Yield : -27% 16.20 Fast bowler @10.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy Very interesting :ok. How are you selecting which horse to follow? I haven't looked at in-running horse data yet. I presume the market is quite volatile if the stats you quote prove to be the long term norm? Does the distance have much of an effect? well, the stats i quoted in my first post are on all horses. im literally selecting the horses for this test at random up to prices of about 20.0. obviously, i could select multiple horses in a race, but as im not actually placing the bets at the moment, it would be difficult for me to see if i would have been matched on multiple horses. the market, like all capital markets is hugely volatile because of the fear and greed present in all humans.. this strategy is just trying to capture the "noise" during the race. I havent yet looked into distance yet, but bearing in mind that the majority of 1.01 "gubbings" occur over the shorter distances, i would have thought the short races would be more profitable? need to check. fc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy Don't you have to be aware of reduction factors affecting backers and layers differently? The 4.10 has a total reduction factor of 27.3% at the moment. Or have the prices already taken that into account? as far as i am aware, the data on the betfair site is quoted after all adjustments for reduction factors, so this shouldnt be an issue.. sample size, however, of the backtest, could be.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy There's not much liquidity during a race is there? correct, which is why the prices are so volatile, and the price swings over-extreme... which is what we are after here.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy I noticed that betfair SP was around 12 for Qik Dip, and almost immediately it went in-play the price dipped to around 7 (presumably your money), and then it just went up as the nag was presumably lagging behind. Is this what usually happens, and what causes the early (large) fluctuations? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy correct' date=' which is why the prices are so volatile, and the price swings over-extreme... which is what we are after here..[/quote'] yes, I see now. So the way forward would be to trade lots of horses for small amounts. GL :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy another +1 on a roll. trade down to 7.0 in play Trades: 11 Wins: 4 Net Profit :-3 Yield : -27% 16.20 Fast bowler @10.5 back on the losing trail Trades: 12 Wins: 4 Net Profit :-4 Yield : -33% 16.30 Vanadium @ 11.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: In-running Horse Trading Strategy I noticed that betfair SP was around 12 for Qik Dip' date=' and almost immediately it went in-play the price dipped to around 7 (presumably your money), and then it just went up as the nag was presumably lagging behind. Is this what usually happens, and what causes the early (large) fluctuations?[/quote'] not my money mate.. only paper trading at the mo.. will give this 50 horses til im satisfied by the test. not looking too great at the mo though. no idea what causes the fluctuations. you have to consider what is matched though - an awful lot of bots will put up ridiculously low/high prices hoping to be matched in error..and i doubt if anyone took that 7 at the start. (he did trade down to it later in the race) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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