Football - "Lay the underdog and run while you can" System

[pinhofap]

I've been following this forum for some time now, and since I've seen some very good systems and made a few euros with someone else's ideas, I thought I might share a very basic system that I started with last season around March and which proved to make some profit. I only used it in March, April and May, but I was able to increase my bank in 40% in the course of those three months. I am not a native english speaker so I hope this is clear to those reading the post. I thought of it when I read about the system regarding laying the tie and then backing it after a goal scored, which seems to have two basic flaws: - if the result is 0-0 the tie odds will eventually decrease, so you have to trade for a loss - if the underdog scores first, the tie odds will go down and if the result remains that way you have to trade for a loss. I think the main problem here really is that you are trading out to win and also trading out to lose, which means you have to pick the games very carefully. What I wanted was a basic system where you only trade out if the bet goes against you, if not you win your whole bet. So the obvious solution was to lay the underdog. Then, 1. If the favourite scores first, the underdog odds go up and you can trade or not (I prefer not to do so) 2. If nothing happens during the whole game (0-0), the tie odds will eventually go down, so the underdog's odds will also go up and you can choose to trade or not (I prefer not to do so) 3. If the underdog scores early in the match, his odd's will go down but not dramatically, so you can choose to use a stop loss at half-time (or trailing stop loss), or you can choose to wait a bit further, that really depends on your judgement. If you are watching the match, even better. If the underdog scores first and late in the match (after 60'), trade out at once. The main factor here is what the underdog's odds will be when you trade out for a loss and, of course, careful game selection. I have no exact data, but if the underdog scores early in the match their odds will reduce to at least half the original, maybe less. The later in the match the more the odds will reduce. If you are staking to win 10 pts and you placed a lay at 11, and at 30' the underdog scores I assume their odds will go down to 4 maybe 5 (I'd like to hear what you think about this, I have no exact data, I'm remembering these figures from watching live matches). At half time they will be a little reduced, maybe 3. So if you now bet 36.66 you make a loss of 26.66 whatever the outcome of the match. It depends very much on the teams if the favourite will be able to score (you only need a tie to win, remember), and that is why game selection is also very important. Two working examples are the Feyenoord-Den Haag of 26Mar05, where I placed a lay at Den Haag. They scored first at 37'. I didn't use the stop loss, so I left the lay there.:wall Den Haag then scored again at 67' and their odds went down dramatically so I lost almost the whole bet, because I didn't trade out at HT or 60'. If a favourite team isn't able to equalize up to 60/65' it's best to trade out with a loss I think. The other game was Bayern-Koln of 01Apr05. Koln scored first at 12', very early in the match and then Bayern equalised at 29'. Koln scored the second goal at 36 and Bayern equalised 3 minutes later. Final result was 2-2 so I won the whole bet. The odds for Koln were actually smaller than before the match after the 2nd equalizer from Bayern, no doubt because they had already scored twice in the match. As for game selection, I used a very simple criteria, bottom third of the league teams playing top 3 or 4, depends on the league, and very rarely laying the home team. Excelent teams were Olympiakos, AEK Athens, Chelsea and Barcelona. I also analysed recent form obviously, especially because some small teams seem to get extra motivation by playing the big teams. Avoid minor leagues, friendlies and national teams, and only bet if the game is in-play, obviously. I am off on vacation for a week, and when I return I will be placing my selections here before the matches and also if I trade out during a match I will also put it here. In the meantime, I would be more than happy to hear your comments on the basic outline of the system and what improvements might be good. As a sideline, and this is the best betting advice I can give you, although I am a Benfica fan, never bet on a logical outcome in a Benfica match!! They will lose with the lousiest teams and then win at Liverpool (!!), etc., so in Portugal the best bet is really that Porto is very strong playing at home, so when they are in shape, just lay the underdog... Good luck with your bets Pinho, Portugal

[dazpara]

Re: Football - "Lay the underdog and run while you can" System Enjoy your holiday pal. i'll be watching with interest when you get back!:hope