theoldmaster Posted July 2, 2006 Share Posted July 2, 2006 ok folks would appreciate your input in to who you think will win the open this year, i will list some of my choices pleas add yours, and together we can give the bookie a pasting! J M Olazabal @ 50/1 a player of his calibre is always worth backing and at that price get on early his odds are bound to shorten. Davis Love III @ 50/1 he is a very good shout, has an amazing run of top 10 finishes in this event and has to be worth backing at that price. Vijay Singh @16/1 whenever there is a major, and a leaderboard you can be assured he will be around the top end, again i expect his odds to shorten. Ian Poulter @ 66/1 he is starting to become a regular top 10 finisher and i reckon his first major aint far away, came close at U.S open back him at 66s e/w David Howell @ 33/1 has everything a major winner should have and on these shores is a class act Darren Clarke @40/1 again a golfer who seems to thrive at this event, always worth backing e/w and back him to win the Loch Lomond next week always performs well this time of season. these are a few of mine would like to hear where you think the value market is, i.e top rest of world, top euro, top gb and ire, or top 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rippyuk Posted July 11, 2006 Share Posted July 11, 2006 Re: Golf, the open Darren Clarke @40/1 again a golfer who seems to thrive at this event, always worth backing e/w and back him to win the Loch Lomond next week Thumbing this months Inside Edge I notice "No player has ever won at Loch Lomond and gone on to win at the Open the following week". Could be worth bearing in mind if you see Clarke having a strong Scottish Open. To be fair I don't know a great deal about Golf, so take these how you will, but I've made a couple of plays based on IE & some frantic Googling.. Davis Love III (Outright) @ 100.0 on Betfair - Has had 2 top 10s & a top 20 finish in the last four years, and reportedly "the best links player on the PGA tour", so I've got on this with a view to laying off as the tournament progresses. Will hopefully get some guidance on here as to when might be a good time for that :hope :ok Tiger Woods (Outright) @ 6.4 on Betfair - Last years winner, and IE see a value price as 4/1, so while he's available at better he's well worth a punt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theoldmaster Posted July 13, 2006 Author Share Posted July 13, 2006 Re: Golf, the open got some bets on early for the open for prices will come in after this weekend. Paul Broadhurst e/w @200/1 might seem like a crazy bet but Hoylake is a course Broadhurst plays regularly and that could make all the diiference nothing to lose at £1 either. Davis LoveIII, @ 66/1 , in the last 15 years he has had 7 top 15 finishes, this proves he CAN play links courses, and has to be a challenger no one else playing has a record as good as that. Fred Couples, @125/1 If he is fit he will be a threat, 12th in the USPGA tour listings, and has had 4 top 15 finishes, and his worst score of them was -3, great bat at that price. Nick Dougherty @ 150/1 again may seem like a strange bet, but like Broadhurst, this is a course Nick knows well, at that price what you got to lose. those are the only ones i have on so far but below i have listed other players and how many top15 finishes thay have had in opens. Ernie Els = 5 top 15 s 16/1 Darren Clarke= 4, 33/1 Retief Goosen= 5. 20/1 Sergio Garcia= 4, 40/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theoldmaster Posted July 16, 2006 Author Share Posted July 16, 2006 Re: Golf, the open ok got my first bets on for open outright, all are put on e/w top 5. C. Petterson, to be honest i don't know too much about him but he is getting rave reviews on th U.S tour and have heard him tipped by others so got him at 100/1. P Broadhurst, as mentioned before knows the course very well worth looking at he has come in to 150's though i got him at 200s. N Dougherty, same reason as above knows the course well and will have local support, often helps sink the birdie putts, 150/1. F Couples, IF he plays he is a must for backing, his record is superb in the open, and he has won masters, so he can putt, his worst score of any top 15 finish he has had is -3, and worth noting he has slid to 150/1 from 125s. R Goosen, had a good finish today, and has been top 10 in last 4 opens has to be woth taking have him at 22/1 T Clark, he plays well in bad conditions, hits the ball low so if the wind blows, he is going to be there, was consistent at Loch Lomond, impressive on greens, excellent value at 40/1 he is sure to come in. and that's it for now looking for tips on top european, top R.O.W, top yank, and top GB and Ire.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 17, 2006 Share Posted July 17, 2006 Re: Golf, the open there is some big prices tucked away here: Nick Dougherty is 250/1 with sporting odds & Langer is 400/1 with VC Bet defoo a couple of ew shouts for me K Ferrie is 200/1 also which looks big. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmetic Bob Posted July 18, 2006 Share Posted July 18, 2006 Re: Golf, the open TIM CLARK E/W @ 66-1 Betfred (1/4 123456) TIM CLARK Top Rest Of The World @ 9-1 Paddy Power (1/5 1234) In form and is an accurate hitter which is essential to win a Major. 4th at Western Open & 5th at Scottish Open and he tends to do well in Europe. 66/1 is very nice price at Betfred who offer 6 places e/w!! He also looks sure to come close in the TOP ROW market as the two market leaders, Els & Goosen are yet to hit their top form of late. PAUL CASEY E/W @ 50-1 Betfred (1/4 123456) PAUL CASEY E/W Top GB/IRE @ 9-1 Paddy Power (1/4 1234) There is no way I am going to avoid backing Paul Casey here! Having followed him all summer, he finally came good at Gleneagles, he is very consistant, as he has finished in the first 5 on his last 7 starts in Europe. This course should suit his game and with first 6 places at Betfred, 50/1 is a very nice price for the Englishman. I also expect him to at least finish in top 4 in GB/IRE market, as in my opinion he is one, if not the most consistant GB/IRE player. TREVOR IMMELMAN E/W @ 40-1 Blue Square (1/4 123456) TREVOR IMMELMAN E/W Top Rest Of The World @ 13/2 Paddy Power (1/5 1234) One of the most consistant players in the PGA Tour Currently. He won at Cialis Western Open and has had two 2nd places in May. Very good 6th at BMW Championship at Wentworth which shows he handles European courses well. Blue Square's offering first 6 places here and decent 40/1. Top Rest Of The World market as well as said previously doubts over the top two and 13/2 is a nice price e/w. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted July 18, 2006 Share Posted July 18, 2006 Re: Golf, the open Will be looking to Lay Woods - still erratic with the driver and he won't get away with it in Hoylake. Davis Love looks a good one to back & lay. Harrington won't be a million miles away either for the same trick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theoldmaster Posted July 18, 2006 Author Share Posted July 18, 2006 Re: Golf, the open top USA, K Perry, e/w @33/1, a good bet for this has been injured but is recovering form, S Verplank e.w @50/1 tied for 7th two years ago, experienced and at tasty odds. D LoveIII e.w @25/1 cant help but have a bet on him with his record. top Euro, C Petterson e.w @33/1, been on forn all season much expected of him. P McGinlay e.w @40/1, proved he can compete at top level at matchplay last year, did well in two prev events. H Stenson e.w @25/1, sitting pretty in Ryder cup table, has to be a contender for top euro. top ROW M Campbell, e.w @ 16/1, tied for 5th last year, has won a major this could just be his week. G Ogilvy, e.w @16/1 , can he win two majors on the bounce? tied for 5th last year too. C Swartzel, e.w @50/1, had great week at Loch Lomond, is bang on form no reason why he can't continue. 1st round leader, N Dougherty @ 100/1 , looking at previous opens the round one leader is often a lesser light, no reason why Dougherty can't be the man he has played Hoylake more times than anyone else taking part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 18, 2006 Share Posted July 18, 2006 Re: Golf, the open Theres some tosh in this thread from an expert tosh-er no doubt u got something to say?????????????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted July 18, 2006 Share Posted July 18, 2006 Re: Golf, the open Theres some tosh in this thread I agree entirely. Everything posted at 21:23 is absolute garbage:tongue2. There's some punctuation in this post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddyg Posted July 18, 2006 Share Posted July 18, 2006 Re: Golf, the open This article has some interesting form stats for the British Open http://golfbettingguide.com/blog/?p=49#more-49 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winrew Posted July 18, 2006 Share Posted July 18, 2006 Re: Golf, the open Trevor Imelmann has dropped out. South Africa's Trevor Immelman has pulled out of this week's Open at Hoylake to attend the birth of his first child. The 26-year-old, whose wife is due to give birth by caesarean section in Orlando, Florida, is currently ranked 15th in the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted July 18, 2006 Share Posted July 18, 2006 Re: Golf, the open Theres some tosh in this thread What made you resurface after good two months of not posting (with the mighty post count of 11 or so:loon) is just beyond me. Either you have something to say or better don't talk at all, mate. Myself, will have a look, but a lay or Woods must be the way to go, he's a false fav once again - maybe even laying him to place might bring dividends. Darren Clarke - not backing this choker at all, although he might have two good rounds - so for the backers it's best to back him now and lay on Friday;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 18, 2006 Share Posted July 18, 2006 Re: Golf, the open This article has some interesting form stats for the British Open http://golfbettingguide.com/blog/?p=49#more-49 Cheers daddyg:ok Based on this article, the shortlist and their current prices would be:- Mickleson (13.0 Sporting Odds) Goosen (26.0 Ladbrokes) Olazabal (67.0 William Hill) Woods (7.0 Ladbrokes) Cabrera (67.0 William Hill) Singh (17.0 Ladbrokes) I will make my selections from the 6 above. At this stage, my thoughts are Mickleson, Singh and Olazabal all EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 18, 2006 Share Posted July 18, 2006 Re: Golf, the open Ok guys, just the 5 against the field. The course looks like its going to be a fair bit easier than usual with the favourite winning score being something like -20 and the low round being 63 at least. Top English Player Going for this market because we take out the likes of Clarke, Monty, Harrington etc and the prices are not that much shorter. L.Donald is fav at 11/4 and deserves to be, he is so consistant and accurate which this course needs, the dry ground will make up for his lack of length off the tee and in my opinion will become one of the best english players of all time. David Howell is probrably the best on the european tour right now had a slightly poor couple of weeks but hes done this before and bounced back in a big event, very comfortable in the majors and capable og going close, at 11/2 is also worth a bet. My outsider is Greg Owen, playing very well in the states and has a score to settle with the authorities over here, threatening to win abig event soon and 20/1 is great value in a weak english field.(all with Skybet) Top Continental European Not many in this field and we get 4 places with skybet, basically its the spaniards and the swedes with one or two others. Olazabal is 6/1 for this and with his experience and know how in majors this is a good bet, much improved over the last couple of years i expect him to be up there challenging once again. Top Aussie I backed G.Ogilvy in the last major and i see no reason to abandon him now, this course will suit his accurate iron play and his putting is solid under pressure. We get 11/2 and 3 places and to be honest its not the strongest team the Aussies have sent to an open. Big 6 v The Field The big 6 are Woods, Els, Singh, Goosen, Mickelson and Harrington. I dont fancy Els or Goosen and surprised that Harrington is in there at all. I'm prepared to take on the other 3 at 1.64 at Betfair. I reckon we have at least 20 guys on our side that could easily win it so it looks good value to me. Will back all mentioned outright also as the prices are too generous, we get first 6 places at BSq, Paddy Power and Betfred and will take advantage of this with Donald (25/1) Howell (40/1) Owen (200/1), will settle for 5 places with Ogilvy (50/1) and Olazabal (66/1) as the prices are much lower at the above mentioned firms. Also like to get a price on the oldmaster getting at least a return out of all them bets!;) Best of luck guys, BH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddyg Posted July 19, 2006 Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Golf, the open Cheers daddyg:ok Based on this article, the shortlist and their current prices would be:- Mickleson (13.0 Sporting Odds) Goosen (26.0 Ladbrokes) Olazabal (67.0 William Hill) Woods (7.0 Ladbrokes) Cabrera (67.0 William Hill) Singh (17.0 Ladbrokes) I will make my selections from the 6 above. At this stage, my thoughts are Mickleson, Singh and Olazabal all EW. No problem. In theory Chad Campbell meets the criteria for selection too but three missed cuts in a row tends to put you off:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theoldmaster Posted July 19, 2006 Author Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Golf, the open billy hills, thats a very good point well made if you want to offer me a price then feel free to offer me one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
handsandheels Posted July 19, 2006 Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Golf, the open I'm a racing enthusiast who uses ratings to sort out winning chances. I decided to try the same approach with a golf tournement and what better way to start than with the Open Championships. In a ratings model you need to quantify factors which you think are important. These factors can be quantified in the shape of statistics from previous tournements. These statistics are available on the pgatour.com website. So what are the important factors for this tournement? Let's start with the way the course is set up (in racing terms this would be the track). The course is long but the recent hot weather has dried out the fairways and the course will play shorter than its yardage. This also means it will be harder to stay on the narrow fairways. So straight driving is important. Most of the fairway bunkers are set about 270-280 yards from the tee so driving distance is also important. The statistic which is relevent is the Total Driving which is the sum of the players ranking in both driving accuracy and driving distance. The narrow fairways will see a lot of players playing from the rough so I've included "greens in regulation from other than the fairway" statistic. I've also included "scrambling" and "scrambling from the rough" statistics as this is very important in links golf. The greens are big so I've included the "3 putt avoidance" statistic. Birdies win majors so I've thrown in the "par 4 and par 5 scoring average" statistic. So in summary the final rating will be a summation of the following statistics, Total Driving Scambling Par 4 average par 5 average GIR from other than fairway scrambling from rough three putt avoidance The ideal player will be long and accurate off the tee, be able to hit the green from the rough, can scramble from either the rough or fairway if he misses the green, gets a lot of birdies on par 4's and par 5's and is a solid putter who avoids three putting. The player who is closet to this ideal player will have the best winning chance in this open. Now for the ratings. This is the summation of all those statistics. As some of these statistics are different in value (and therefor have a different affect on the ratings), I altered the different factors to equal roughly the same. e.g. total driving might equal 190, where as three putt avoidance might equal 3.3. If we just added both values then Total driving woulod dominate the ratings value. In this case I halved the total driving (95) and times the 3PA by 30 (100). Both get equal "weight" in the overall ratings this way. This is the final ratings in ratings order and the prices from Sportingbet. Keep in mind that there were no stats for some of the European players such as Monty who is a definite chance. Jim Furyk 220.67 $34 Padraig Harrington 219.05 $23 Scott Verplank 217.7 $151 Lucas Glover 214.2 $126 John Senden 209.61 $151 Ian Poulter 208.54 $67 Phil Mickelson 203.08 $11 Robert Allenby 202.54 $61 Zach Johnson 195.29 $151 K. J. Choi 190.09 $151 Nick O'Hern 189.3 $67 Retief Goosen 186.81 $23 Geoff Ogilvy 184.59 $34 Trevor Immelman 183.69 $34 Stuart Appleby 183.55 $41 Davis Love III 175.13 $81 Vijay Singh 170.83 $17 Luke Donald 169.64 $21 Stewart Cink 169.43 $126 Justin Leonard 166.59 $81 Jose Maria Olazabal 164.7 $51 Stephen Ames 163.94 $126 Ernie Els 161.68 $19 Rod Pampling 159.75 $126 Ben Curtis 156.13 $201 Tim Herron 149.78 $301 Chad Campbell 149.41 $151 Graeme McDowell 139.33 $126 Kenny Perry 137.37 $81 Tim Clark 131.42 $51 Adam Scott 130.77 $41 Mike Weir 124.67 $81 Sean O'Hair 106.71 $126 Tiger Woods 104.5 $6 Fred Couples 89.6 $151 Darren Clarke 82.07 $34 David Howell 79.14 $41 Lee Westwood 67.71 $81 Sergio Garcia 61.02 $34 Good Luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bamse81 Posted July 19, 2006 Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Golf, the open :welcome to the Punters Lounge jordmike and a very interesting first post at that. Looking forward to your future posts buddy :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2damnhype Posted July 19, 2006 Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Golf, the open Cracking first post Mike, the only problem i can see with using the stats from the pgatour website is that they are really only of relevance to the players that play there week in week out, and in an event like the British Open there is a fair portion of the field who don;t play much (if any) of their golf on the US Tour (in fairness you do mention this about Monty, but there are other players on the list whose overall performance might differ from what comes out from limited tournaments) You also have the problem that you are not able to compare like with like, as a British links course is nothing like the courses they play on over there. That said I think its a great idea,and one that could well pay dividends on a weekly basis rather than for the Majors. Can't see me getting a chance to study before tee off, so am gonna let the first two days play out and hopefully have a look on Friday evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
handsandheels Posted July 19, 2006 Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Golf, the open 2damnhype - Thank you for your thoughts. I thought I'd enter with a big splash rather than putting the toe in :) There is a flaw becasue of the pga tour bias so the ratings have to be treated with caution. The factors (statistics) I used are relevant (well I think they are :) for this course. The only problem with that is, as you point out, that the Europeans don't feature. The positive is that the Europeans havn't won The Open Championships for a while (don't have stats but did read it somewhere). I like your point about betting in non major weeks, probably would have caught John Sendon at a nice price last week, his stats have been solid all year. I'll have a crack at a non major soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
handsandheels Posted July 19, 2006 Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Golf, the open Thanks Bam, looks like a good Forum :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoolander Posted July 19, 2006 Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Golf, the open SportGolf EventThe Open Championship SelectionGeoff Ogilvy (1/4 123456) (Each-Way) (Each-Way) Strength2/10 Date23/07/2006 Bookmaker/Price>Paddy Power @ 51.00 (Back) ReasoningPaddy Power are offering an extra place for the open championship starting tomorrow. Geoff Oglivy suprised everyone at the US open but anyone thats interested in golf knows he is as good as any player from the Australia/Asia region. He won the US Open on a difficult course already this season and i think he is real value at this price and the bookmakers may have underestimated him again. There are worse players with much lower odds than this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted July 19, 2006 Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Golf, the open Last years was a predictable one but at least Monty ran the Tiger close. Going with the class act that is Fiji's Vijay Singh. On his day he can compete and beat the best and that does include Tiger. He's won Majors before so knows whats needed come pay day on Sunday. His length off the tee is impressive too and has been there or thereabouts in the last load of Majors. Vijay Singh 2pts each way @ 17 1/4 odds 123456 betfred Last year he went close at St Andrews and last month he should have won the US Open. Scotlands Colin Montgomorie is back in the form that brought him the majority of his wins. He still yearns a major and that hunger will drive him on. Finishing 2nd in the US Open is proof enough he can compete at this highest of levels. Accuracy off the tee is his game and with it looking an open affair he can go close. His form on the European Tour has been solid so he comes here with an outside chance of a place. Colin Montgomorie 1pt each way @ 34 1/4 odds 123456 betfred Going for Top American here and for me it looks a solid each way bet. Phil Mickleson's record in majors of late is nothing short of exceptional. He always seems to feature come Sunday in the Majors and if Tigers not on his game following his time off the course then this bet could easily be a winner. Lefty's game is at its best right now and god only knows what happened late on in the US Open to deny him yet another major. Expect him to put that behind him and figure once again this weekend. Top American 5pts Each Way Phil Mickleson @ 5 1/4 odds 1234 betdirect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 19, 2006 Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Golf, the open just been listening to the excellent preview on Talksport tonight, & my feeling is that in these conditions, luck with the bounce will play a major part here & that anybody with a decent game can win this. I will be having 10 selections all at 1pt each posted later tonight after i have checked odds etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pentopunter Posted July 19, 2006 Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Golf, the open Breaking my superstition by posting my golf tips, I think it is bad luck. I have made a good profit this year so far and I am confident of success this week. Ernie Els E-W Got him at 18/1 a few weeks ago, I think 16/1 is the best you could get now. Great British Open record: Last 10 years: 1995:10 1996:2 1997:10 1998:29 1999:24 2000:2 2001:3 2002:1 2003:18 2004:2 2005:34 Has not missed the cut in a major since the US PGA 1999. Not played great by his standards in 2006 but has not missed a cut and has had a few good finishes, played ok last week. Won a tournament on this course as an 18 year old in 1988 if that counts for anything. N O’Hern E-W @ 80/1 bet365 Good price, 15th in British Open last year, 2nd on European tour stats for driving accuracy and greens in regulation which could count for something this week. T Woods Win @ 11/2 coral Saver on Tiger, a lot of people have their doubts but he is the man they all fear and if he can get off to a good start he will be hard to stop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 19, 2006 Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Golf, the open settled on B Langer @ 300/1 Skybet M Weir 80/1 K ferrie 125/1 J Daly 150/1 N Dougherty 150/1 G Mcdowell 125/1 R Green 125/1 A Oberhauser 100/1 all others with p power all to win - 1pt win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 19, 2006 Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Golf, the open settled on B Langer @ 300/1 Skybet M Weir 80/1 K ferrie 125/1 J Daly 150/1 N Dougherty 150/1 G Mcdowell 125/1 R Green 125/1 A Oberhauser 100/1 all others with p power all to win - 1pt win Good luck Bowles:ok Like the look of Ferrie & Weir. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 19, 2006 Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Golf, the open Thursday 3 balls M Hensby 7/4 F Couples 11/4 M Weir 13/8 R Allenby 11/10 B Langer 9/4 R Green 6/5 20 x 0.5pt trebles 1 x 1pt accy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dgk Posted July 19, 2006 Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Golf, the open Brett Wetterich caught my eye. Don't think the putting will decide this tourny and even if his strenght is rather long shots of the tee than accurate ones he is a rather even mediocre player. Mainly out after the place but 251 e/w might be worth a shot. Oh well. BillyHills> any reason you quit updating your golfthread? gl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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