'LAY the AWAY'

[thunderfoot]

[aliando]

Re: 'LAY the AWAY' good luck mate :hope it certainly has the potential - the long-term outlook rather than the quick-profit method is often the best way to go.

[davidc]

Re: 'LAY the AWAY' Good luck with this thunderfoot.

So I started to look at football and 'Laying the Away'. I think I may just have a half decent system on this because, since July 2005 I have had 330 selections & only 3 have actually gone against me.

Are you saying that you have won 327 out of 330 bets? If so that is amazing!

The down side of course is that I'm 'LAYing' so the risk is high if the Away teams odds are around 12.00, which they regularly are .... one loss at these odds can wipe-out a pretty decent run.

This is a common misconception about laying. What you would be better doing is to set your liability to a fixed stake, not your profit, which means that you know that your worst case scenario (loss) for every bet is the same. So for instance if you lay a team at 12.0 for liability of £10.01, your profit would be £0.91 before commission where previously you were trying to win £10 with a liability of £110.

[thunderfoot]

Re: 'LAY the AWAY'

Are you saying that you have won 327 out of 330 bets? If so that is amazing!

Amazingly .... Yes!!!:cow .... and selections can be checked on betbase.

This is a common misconception about laying. What you would be better doing is to set your liability to a fixed stake, not your profit, which means that you know that your worst case scenario (loss) for every bet is the same. So for instance if you lay a team at 12.0 for liability of £10.01, your profit would be £0.91 before commission where previously you were trying to win £10 with a liability of £110.

Yeah, I looked at this mode of betting as well .... much safer method, but very slow in building-up profit :(

[maria]

Re: 'LAY the AWAY' I wish you very good luck with it, thunderfoot. I'll be watching with interest. Could I just ask why you include the Bundesliga 2nd division but not 1st division, the French 2nd but not 1st, Scottish 1st and 3rd but not 2nd, and so on? It's not easy to appreciate what's made you choose these?

[maria]

Re: 'LAY the AWAY' :eek

This is a common misconception about laying. What you would be better doing is to set your liability to a fixed stake' date=' not your profit, which means that you know that your worst case scenario (loss) for every bet is the same.[/quote'] Ahem ... :unsure Er ... maybe fixed liability laying isn't absolutely the most appropriate kind of staking with a 99% strike-rate, David? :)

[thunderfoot]

Re: 'LAY the AWAY'

Could I just ask why you include the Bundesliga 2nd division but not 1st division, the French 2nd but not 1st, Scottish 1st and 3rd but not 2nd, and so on? It's not easy to appreciate what's made you choose these?

Basically, historical information. These can be included if you want but I found the best returns, albeit over the past year, were when these were not included. When they were included the SR's & Yields were reduced.

[maria]

Re: 'LAY the AWAY' Thanks for your reply, Thunderfoot. I see ... I think. :) I was sort of wondering if it's a back-tested and forward-traded system or how the astonishing 99% strike-rate was derived ... one wonders whether the fact that the exclusion of Scottish 2 (with the inclusion of Scottish 1 and Scottish 3), for instance, just happened to increase the strike-rate over the historical period analysed or whether there are actual reasons for this that mean it's likely to be true this year as well ... but maybe nobody can really know this for sure, so you just have to guess, which is fair enough? No problem - and probably it's too early to be asking questions like this anyway! Apologies for the interruption and good luck with it! :D