The Punter's Lounge road to riches! (round 3)

[aliando]

Third round for the thread this weekend - lets try and keep our 100% record :ok Basic Idea i will take a maximum of 5 selections each weekend (time allowing) from my own selection process (undisclosed), with odds > 1.50 (1/2) from most bookies. I will post a poll and also include a no bet option. Each of us can vote on the poll once and the bet with the highest votes will be our weekend bet. Should two or more bets have equally the highest votes, then singles will be placed on both/all selections. Should no bet receive the highest votes, then no bet will be placed. I will make the voting public, so that if anyone requires, they can look at previous games/vote to look at individuals voting/success rate. The selection with the highest votes at 2:30pm (unless stated otherwise) on Satday will be the chosen bet(s). All games will be from England (prem-conf), scotland (prem-div3) and the league of wales. Each week will have a new thread, and use this thread for discussion on the matches selected Start bank = 500 pts Current bank = 512.2 each bet = 10 pts Number of Bets = 2 Won/Lost = 2/0 (100%) Games selected for votes Won/Lost = 7/3 (70%) No of Weeks all bets lost = 0/2 (0%) Previous Rounds Round 1 http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=26463 Round 2 http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=26765

[sbi]

Re: The Punter's Lounge road to riches! (round 3) hi aliando. oldham is the strongest home selection i have this week. i examine six statistical system results and this is the only home to come up on all of them from any of the UK leagues or any of the major Euro leagues so that gets my vote :ok

[aliando]

Re: The Punter's Lounge road to riches! (round 3) cheers sbi - looks like confidence is at a maximum for oldham then!

[davidmphill]

Re: The Punter's Lounge road to riches! (round 3) Oldham to beat MK Dons looks a good thing this weekend for me.

[evilchris]

Re: The Punter's Lounge road to riches! (round 3) I like oldham as well, dont think MK Dons have enough about them to get anything here.

[aliando]

Re: The Punter's Lounge road to riches! (round 3) i've had one fcuk of a day and cant be arsed doing anything tonight. just quickly, oldham way ahead at the moment - thread to close at 2pm tomorrow.

[aliando]

Re: The Punter's Lounge road to riches! (round 3) 8 bets from 11 for oldham!

Best odds/All odds Oldham 1.5 1.53 1.5 1.53 1.5 1.45 1.5 1.53 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.53 1.5 1.44 1.44 1.51 1.52 Draw 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.75 3.4 3.5 3.75 3.4 3.75 3.6 3.5 3.75 3.75 4.2 4.3 MK Dons 6 5.5 6 6 6 6.5 6 5.5 5.5 6.5 6 6 6 6.5 6 8.5 8

1.53 to be found in a few places. oldham to win @ 1.53 - 10 points

[davidmphill]

Re: The Punter's Lounge road to riches! (round 3) :loon MK Dons win 2-1 and record only their 2nd away win of the season!!:eek

[aliando]

Re: The Punter's Lounge road to riches! (round 3) ffs

FT

Oldham Athletic

1 - 2

Milton Keynes Dons

:@ donkey fcukers spoil the record other games

FT

Northampton T.

2 - 2

Rochdale

FT

Halifax T.

2 - 1

Southport

FT

Stevenage

2 - 0

Scarborough

FT

Raith Rovers

0 - 0

Dumbarton

not good. Start bank = 500 pts Loss = 10 points Current bank = 502.2 each bet = 10 pts Number of Bets = 2 Won/Lost = 2/1 (67%) Games selected for votes Won/Lost = 9/6 (60%) No of Weeks all bets lost = 0/3 (0%)

[sbi]

Re: The Punter's Lounge road to riches! (round 3) doh... well i guess that sums up recent weeks for me - my entirely statistical approach has taken a real beating lately (something i've noticed with other tipsters too - all the statto's i know have experienced similar - anyone else found this for their statistic-based 1X2's in recent weeks?) - annoying because reckon i'd have done much better last few weeks just backing the teams i've been 'tipping' in chatting subjectively down the pub. :wall

[aliando]

Re: The Punter's Lounge road to riches! (round 3) i know what you mean - i'm putting a lot of it down to end of season effects

[XAN]

Re: The Punter's Lounge road to riches! (round 3) I was only one to vote for Stevenage:\ Good luck:dude

[sbi]

Re: The Punter's Lounge road to riches! (round 3) aliando - this is my first season of serious betting on football. have you or others found the 'end of season' effect to be significant for messing up your statistical selections? or do you manage to bet profitably up to the final whistle?

[AJ]

Re: The Punter's Lounge road to riches! (round 3) End of season factor is an interesting one, I don't tend to read too much into it tbh, bad teams don't suddenly become good, I don't buy the story that they try harder at this point. Were they not trying all year ?? It can also work in your favour, teams make late pushes and go on good runs, Man Utd have now won 9 in a row, 5 games to go, I'd expect them to win at least 4 of them As long as your careful and aviod end of season matches where a home team needs a win to stay up, you should be fine.

[aliando]

Re: The Punter's Lounge road to riches! (round 3) xan - the conference were my saving grace this week - meant a poor weekend wasnt an awful weekend. sbi - same here, mate, this is my first season of serious betting. I've noticed in previous years that suddenly strange results seem to occur more often and its something that i'm having a little difficulty with - plenty of years ahead to get to grips with it though! Fools - i think there are problems with teams/players stepping up the effort as a reality check seems to hit them sometimes - fighting against relegation can have a greater psychological effect than a promotion push, sometimes - difficulty is knowing how much this will come into effect in each individual game. Also, this is the time of year that some teams/managers will start preparing for next season thus throwing many stats out of the window - thats where the forums can play a part by everyone informing of their own team(s) throwing out youth players/reserves etc. But even this is dodgy ground as players can be playing for contracts/places in next seasons teams. For me, it just means that there are more variables which is not a good thing for the betting man!

[sbi]

Re: The Punter's Lounge road to riches! (round 3) my thoughts (BTW done no research on it whatsoever) on the end of season effect had been that people over-rate it (like has been said above, bad teams dont suddenly become good and a general level of effort is always expected). but my results last few weeks perhaps suggest otherwise. not that im really in a position to recommend but if a total newbie asked me about it i'd probably advise, like i normally do, just to look at short run form - eg Premiership: teams near the bottom who may spring some 'surprise' victories: Portsmouth and to a lesser extent Birmingham Teams who probably won't: West Brom, Villa (my team, very worried about them, if i didnt support i'd be tempted on the wager @ around 25/1 to go down - they are playing awfully at the moment, no steel at all).