AFL - Round 2

[Ashtee]

Western Bulldogs -10.5 @1.90 Davidson Sports Betting (-11.5/-12.5 available at most books also is outstanding deal) Western Bulldogs v Melbourne Date 08/04/2006 Reasoning: Western Bulldogs on 8-days rest versus Melbourne on 6-days rest. Melbourne should welcome back players but will still have too many underdone and I’m looking to May for them to show some better form. Murphy in doubt for Dogs. Bulldogs are carrying forward last years momentum and are well coached so I don’t expect a let down off last week. Eade invented the defensive flood and now looks to have solved it with those ‘smart bomb’ entries into fifty together with hard working nimble forwards who regularly force a spill. Melbourne also have major problems with their kick-in strategy, evident in the NAB Cup and also against Carlton. This price may be pushed out because, Melbourne have won eight of the last nine over Bulldogs, the result when they met in NAB Cup Round-1 and the fact they got to the semi, but all that form deserves to be disregarded. Also I suspect there is some reluctance to take too seriously Bulldogs form line through Richmond. I certainly don’t see it that way. I expect Bulldogs will run ragged a stale Melbourne and demontrate superior class. I’ll play this with an increased stake. Rating: WBD 1/4 Ash.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 2 I'll be at that game Ash, and certainly trying my best to get the Doggies over the line. :ok Geelong -21.5 The Cats won this game last year by 85 at home, and have won 8 of their last 10 at home by an av of 41 points. I think it's a pretty good case of the Kangaroos being over-rated after a perceived "good" win last week...but Port are certainly not the power (non pun!) that they have been. Last year the Kangaroos only beat one team that was higher than them on the ladder, and that was Richmond, who somehow started off the season well! Given decent weather I think the Cats will get this one done pretty easily. Freo -23.5 I think I like how this one sets up as well. Freo off an "upset" loss, but at a ground where they have had NO success...Carlton a good win, but Melbourne looked very under-done. Freo have won the last 6 meetings by 28, 28, 47, 48, 19 (subi), 35 (MCG) last year. Freo will be pretty keen to put in a good win here at home...4 goals doesn't look like much. Sydney -21.5 Like I said, Port aren't anywhere near the team they have been... Sydney got off to a poor start last week, but realistically the game was over at 1/4 time due to a fair amount of help from the men in white! Sydney won at home by 24 last season, with 9 more shots, and with Tredrea likely another week away I think the Swans can bounce back with a decent win. Collingwood 1.90 Pretty confident that this is bet of the week... Again, sets up well...Hawks off that "upset" win, and Collingwood fading late, but mixed it with arguably the best team in the league for 3/4's. People like Licuria, Roccca, Tarrant even Buckley will be better for the run, and playing Hawthorn isn't quite the same as battling the Crows. Collingwood have won the last 2 years by 65 and 28, and last year were without Buckley and Rocca. Pretty amazing to think that the Pies have lost 9 straight games, but they are clearly the better team here I'd think...1.90 looks generous. (Late news that Tarrant and Didak have a 'mystery illness'!!...Will pass on more info when I get it, but I don't think it will affect the result of the game either way.)