danno375 Posted December 16, 2005 Share Posted December 16, 2005 In the poker books and stats that people on here read, what constitutes a rare hand? As far as I know, a full house is a special hand but not THAT rare. Today on Sporting odds I have seen 5 four of a kinds. One was mine and attracted no betting and 3 of the other 4 were with one player only holding 1 of the cards. Isn't a four of a kind supposed to be rare? 3 of the ones I saw were on the same table....within an hour! Maybe it is a cold deck for Danno day ( again) but Every time I had a good hand some chimp had called with nothing ( 5 2 ) and hit quads! Time to pack it all in and take shooting......perhaps I could shoot the morons that keep getting lucky against me. Mind you, they would be saved by the tobacco tin in their breast pocket(pair) Oh well! :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arty Posted December 16, 2005 Share Posted December 16, 2005 Re: What is a rare hand? Does anyone know what are the mathematical odds for hitting quads? Just a guess but it might be between 500 and 1000 hands. Meaning that you could see one per 50 to 100 hands in 10 player table? (I have played abt. 2500 hands and got quads four or five times myself.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted December 16, 2005 Share Posted December 16, 2005 Re: What is a rare hand? Does anyone know what are the mathematical odds for hitting quads? Just a guess but it might be between 500 and 1000 hands. Meaning that you could see one per 50 to 100 hands in 10 player table? (I have played abt. 2500 hands and got quads four or five times myself.) Good guess! One time in 595, assuming you stay in until the river. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doddsy Posted December 16, 2005 Share Posted December 16, 2005 Re: What is a rare hand? Sounds like you have been unlucky there Danno - must be a Sporting Odds thing with all of the muppets on there. As for rare hands, obviously Royal and straight flushes, but 4 of a kind is still quite rare in my personal opinion, unless I've just been getting cold decks as well. At the minute full houses keep showing their faces and taking all my chips/money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stereoman Posted December 16, 2005 Share Posted December 16, 2005 Re: What is a rare hand? Bet into someone's made straight flush (8 to queen of clubs) on the flop earlier on today in one of Gutshot's 1am freerolls (they were holding 9Jc in mid-position and I was holding AQo in late position). D'oh!! Very tough (and aggressive to the point of maniac) crowd, the Gutshot lot. :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgej Posted December 16, 2005 Share Posted December 16, 2005 Re: What is a rare hand? On my 2nd entry on the dollarup on SO the chip leader at our table ran into quad 6's, next hand he had FH... against quad 2's left him 160 chips. Didn't say a word, just satout and left it. Kinda felt for the guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ell Ess Dee Posted December 16, 2005 Share Posted December 16, 2005 Re: What is a rare hand? err.. Royal Flush ??? Never seen one, never seen a straight flush. Funny thing is seen more 4 of a kinds than full houses... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted December 17, 2005 Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: What is a rare hand? royal flush is very rare.. but we have had 2 this week from p/l one was by GAF and the other by me look in the thread royal flush Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno375 Posted December 17, 2005 Author Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: What is a rare hand? seen 4 more 4 of a kinds this morning! This is getting silly! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 17, 2005 Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: What is a rare hand? danno, I gave this a lot of thought yesterday (when google failed me :lol), and I had this thinking. You see more flops because you play more hands argument - but it still doesn't explain the frequency of these hands. However this is my (extremely flawed) logic; On most tables you have 10 people seated, and each get 2 cards each. In addition to this they have the 5 community cards (the flop). In effect there are 70 cards in play (although only 20 are exclusive) which goes some way to exlpaining the increased frequency (to me). The other reason must be down to poorly programmed poker software. I know this should not be the case in this day and age, but what other reason? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno375 Posted December 17, 2005 Author Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: What is a rare hand? No idea Valiant! By the way?? just run the 70 cards in a pack past me again! To baffle you even more.......The games that I have been playing......execpt the odd MTT......have all been short handed. So there are only 5 people playing. Add that to your bullsh1t calculator!!! One other thing...I like a good game of poker and when board I can get into a fair few games but I only play one table at once and always have a nice rest in between...... i am not constantly playing....so it means that I don't see a million hands every hour......so that SHOULD reduce the amount of rare hands I see. SHOULD also reduce the amount of bad beats I get too, but that is for another thread......Another one I am dominating!!! Danno, King of the whinging world! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brookes Posted December 17, 2005 Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: What is a rare hand? The other reason must be down to poorly programmed poker software. I know this should not be the case in this day and age, but what ither reason? Is it poorly programmed or deliberate , my impression is that I have seen more quads on the low stake S.O. , less in the freeroll , but could be due to more people seeing the cards in the low stake games.In the Nordicbet freeroll , flushes appear very often. I have no statistical proof , just my bias could be due to me losing against those hands more often .On betfair , bet365 betfred flushes and quads are rarer IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted December 17, 2005 Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: What is a rare hand? Thing is danno, I 'm not disagreeing with you. The chances of seeing, say a full house is increasing...flushes are everyday and quads are only slightly remarkable. The only hand to still excite is a royal or straight flush. Valiant, Keeper of the BS calculator (patent pending). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno375 Posted December 17, 2005 Author Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: What is a rare hand? I know you were agreeing Val. Just typing for the sake of it. Stops me hitting random OAP's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno375 Posted December 17, 2005 Author Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: What is a rare hand? I am totally enraged now! Just had full house beaten by........ you guessed it Thats 5 times I have seen quads today. only played about 5 short handed tables. thats 25 people. Ridiculous! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Rivers Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 Re: What is a rare hand? ive played sporting odds for about a year now. and played quite a lot, and ive seen about 10 royal flushes 2 of them mine (which was nice). but is this too many?. ive lost count of the straight flushes ive seen, there kind of boring now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guesswest Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 Re: What is a rare hand? The deal on SO is random. If you believe otherwise collect a statistically valid sample and publish, or send it to the wizard of odds (www.wizardofodds.com). You can cripple a bunch of huge publicly traded companies that have absolutely no incentive to fix the deal in the first place. It'd be more difficult to program, totally illegal and a money loser - and the SO rng is shared by about 20 other sites, and not written by anyone who is getting any money from rake and fees anyway (ie Boss Media, not Sporting Odds). Cards are assigned randomly redistributing tags in a dealing algorithm, if there's 3 kings on the board the RNG not only won't be more likely to deal the case king, it doesn't even know which tag refers to the case king. The deal is all a matter of public record, it can be tested by anyone with enough time on their hands, and various people have tested various sites, most likely someone has tested the Boss Media RNG, and if they haven't it's just a matter of time before someone does. The chances of any specific combination of cards being dealt is very low, the chances that you'll get dealt Jd4h then Ks9d then 2h9c is miniscule - that's why retrospective odds aren't statistically useful in determining whether the deal is fixed. You probably will see a few more big hands on SO due to the standard being so low, more people staying in hands they shouldn't be in to hit their draws, but that's as far as it goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno375 Posted January 27, 2006 Author Share Posted January 27, 2006 Re: What is a rare hand? that doesn't explain why so many pairs hitb the board or even the flop guess!! I have had these rows with GaF? many times and while all in good fun, no one has explained how so many pairs pop up on the flop. surely the odds of three pairs hitting the flop in three hands is small too but it happens all the time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guesswest Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 Re: What is a rare hand? It's about a 17% chance of the flop pairing by my maths, so not that unlikely at all. That'd make the odds of it happening three times in a row about 0.5%. So the flop's going to pair three times in a row on average every 200 deals or so. But again, the odds of ANYTHING specific happening is low. The odds of getting three flops in a row 8J4, 39A, 2TQ is much lower, but it's completely unremarkable so you pay it no mind, just like you don't notice the flops that don't pair, which i'm sure is 83% of them. Edit: This may be wrong since I don't have a calculator handy - but I get the chances of the board pairing at all (by the river) at 66%. So it's going to happen most of the time with a fair deal. I welcome correction if I ballsed up that calculation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 Re: What is a rare hand? its the monkeys, typewriters and shakespeare scenario again how many hands per hour do most tables see? 40 (as a conservative figure) how many players per flop? 50% of them? multiply that by the number of tables that are played and its a HUGE amount of deals - so statistically over a period of time you will see these runs happening and lets think about it - people will call with anything!:loon forget the top 10/20 hands, people generally play loose (and by that I mean Q4 suited anywhere, or 9 10 off UTG - cards I would NEVER play - unless I was on a real heater :lol ) so thats why you see so many suckouts - come on AK off vs 23 off is 'just' a 2:1 fav so why not call the 3XBB raise??? :eyes (and AK is a loser to 22 over 50% of the time, and ask people what they would rather have? most would say AK) its stats and probability and variance - and it HURTS like feckin hell when a muppet calls and beats your rockets with Q4s...... :wall Damo :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fenner Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 Re: What is a rare hand? in the 1st 3 months of playing on line I had either 5 or 6 maybe 7(honestly) royal flushes in the last year none yet I play hundreds more hands a week now than then, I guess i got my lifetimes worth all at the start and probably never get another Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 Re: What is a rare hand? That really is a lot of royal flushes Fenners :eek Ive only ever had 1 still :\ Personally id only class a rare hand as a straight flush or royal flush. Anything else you see quite reguarly to be honest. 4 of a kind at a push but you do see em a fair bit so I wouldnt call em rare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Rivers Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 Re: What is a rare hand? has anyone ever been dealt AA one after the other. im not complaining because ive had it twice, but thats got to be pretty big odds. it happenned last 2 days ago, and made me chip leader for a short while in a multi-tourney. i was brought back down to earth though when after sitting patiently for some good cards i got AJ os and with a jack high rainbow flop was all in, my opponent turned over AJ spades, i was relieved i wasn't being beat by trips or higher pocket pair when i realised the unlikely could happen with spade runner runner. come to think of it i just knew it would happen. and i was out just like that. not only is the river not my friend but the turn likes to draw first blood when needed. i also had KK then AA the other day which was nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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