Bank builder or bank buster? (Week 1 +£10.20)

[Skylark2009 the 2nd]

My Betfair account currently holds £241.71. Lets see what I can do with this bank while betting on horses on Betfair.

Info #1 - Bank and stakes.

1. Bets will be placed with Betfair using BFSP (win and place).

2. Initial stake will be set @ £1.00.

3. Stakes will be increased/decreased by £1.00 depending on the size of the bank. The first target increase is when the bank hits £500, the next at £1000, then every £500+.

4. The stake will be increased when the bank exceeds each target level and decreased when the bank dips below each target level.

5. Any adjustments to the stake will be applied at the end of each betting day for the following day.

Edited 27 minutes ago by Skylark2009 the 2nd
Title update

[Skylark2009 the 2nd]

Info #2 - Selection process.

1. A paper trial selection method was tested from 02/12/24 to 05/04/25, it produced 5576 potential bets with 729 winners (SR of 13.07% and an A/E of 1.13).

2. It ran into a profit using BFSP returns. The returned BFSP prices ranged between 999 to 0.15 across all the potential bets. The largest winning returned odds were 279.35, while the smallest winning returned odds were 0.15.

3. The most number of bets in a single day across the paper trial was 100 (on Boxing Day), while the smallest in a day was 9.

4. Average bets per day were around 45/46 for the paper trail (suggesting approx 16600 bets for an entire year)

5. A strike rate of approximately 13.00% across 16600 bets suggests losing runs as big as 70 or larger can occur. The longest losing run across the paper trial was 50 (x 1), the next being 41 (x 1) then 39 (x 1), most losing runs seem to peter out at around the 19/20 mark. There was a total 28 losing runs of 20 or more across the paper trial with 10 of those losing runs being 30 or more.

6. There will frequently be more than one bet in the same race. Stakes may have to be adjusted in such races to create saver bets to balance any returns.

7. Removing all potential bets with odds of 50 or more, resulted in 786 removals along with 15 winners (SR of 1.91% and an A/E of 2.01), This left 4788 potential bets with 714 winners (SR of 14.91% and an A/E of 1.12). This seems to indicate the selection method doesn't rely heavily on big priced winners for profitability. It also shows it may be prudent in my trying to exclude those potential selections whose odds may exceed 50 or more. Reporting of the paper trial results will be inclusive of any potential selections with a BFSP of 50 or bigger if I don't include them as bets here.

8. Since the data collected so far for the paper trial only started in December 2024, then it is mainly relevant to any jumps/AW racing selections at the moment. Flat turf selections will be kept to the minimum until enough data has accrued to help determine when to start adding them to this glory hunt. The reporting of the paper trial results will be inclusive of any flat turf selections that I don't include as bets here.

9. Due to the number of potential selections/bets each day, I will post them in 'bitesize' chunks of 20 bets per post for easier reading.